The concept of economic crisis. Causes of occurrence and ways out of it. What is an economic crisis, what are the reasons for its occurrence and how to avoid it? Economic crisis in the most negative way

The global economic crisis is, of course, the most pressing topic discussed by politicians, economists, businessmen and society. Politicians are trying to guide countries through economic shocks by distributing the resources that states have accumulated; economists are looking for new anti-crisis recipes, having for the first time encountered a crisis that has truly engulfed all countries of the world; business strives to preserve assets and minimize losses, and citizens, regardless of the country, experience justified concern for their social position and well-being.

Parallels are drawn with the Great Depression, but what happened in 1929 and the current situation are significantly different. The uniqueness and depth of the current crisis lies in the fact that there has been a combination of cyclical, structural, credit, stock and banking crises. The situation thus developed was aggravated by a crisis of confidence, both on the part of commercial agents and on the part of the general population. Therefore, both the global community as a whole and individual countries will need considerable time to overcome the emerging crisis of confidence in commercial organizations and the general public in traditional financial institutions.

A crisis, as we know, is a payment for mistakes previously made by both the state and business entities. It should be noted that the state sometimes acts contrary to the interests of economic entities, pursuing its own goals and taking actions that distort the economy to some extent. Economic entities are also to blame, but it is the state, setting the rules of the game, that forces them (or allows them) to act accordingly. Consequently, crises are generated by the actions of the state, and the mistakes of economic entities are secondary to the mistakes of the state.

In the current situation, a discussion of the role of the state during a crisis, in particular, various approaches and possible consequences of increasing state participation in business during a crisis, becomes particularly relevant.

The most common economic policy of the state during a crisis is a destructive policy, which consists of attempts to save enterprises, banks, industries and other groups of economic entities that have been seriously affected by the crisis or are considered as “systemically important”. This policy is implemented through low interest rates to support the real sector of the economy and credit institutions that need to increase liquidity; government orders for products, all kinds of subsidies to firms suffering losses in order to maintain the required level of production and jobs.

It should be noted that the current governments of most countries in the world, including the USA, EU countries, Japan and China, are pursuing a destructive policy. This was confirmed by the summit of the G20 countries, at which their heads agreed on a package of joint anti-crisis actions, providing for unprecedented government intervention in regulating market processes - from recapitalization and state support for bank liquidity to its entry into their authorized capitals.

But today there are examples that the destructive policy of the state led to fatal consequences (the policy of the US government in 1930, thanks to which the recession turned into the Great Depression; the policy of the Japanese government after the crisis of 1990, as a result of which the economy throughout the subsequent period did not reach a trajectory of strong growth). Therefore, it provokes relevant discussions.

On the one hand, it is the state that must provide financial and institutional assistance to business entities that find themselves in a critical situation. On the other hand, by supporting old industries, we are holding back the positive impact of the crisis on changes in the structure of industry. We are not speeding up the exit from it, but, on the contrary, we are containing and deepening the crisis. After all, it is during a crisis that it becomes most clear how the economy actually works. And the crisis, accordingly, performs an important economic function – the function of correction. Therefore, you should not invest money in something that cannot be sold, in the production of cars that no one buys. During a crisis, money should be invested in something that generates new values.

There are examples of situations where government actions saved the economy (the policy of the British government during the crisis of 1979–1980, the policy of the South Korean government during the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998). The essence of such a policy, called constructive, is to help citizens and reduce the role of the state in the economy. In a crisis, responsible authorities must first of all solve two short-term tasks aimed at preserving the country’s payment system and helping citizens.

That is, government measures should primarily be aimed at preventing humanitarian disasters and making it easier for citizens to adapt to the new economic structure. It is not the enterprises that need to be helped, because the owners who made the wrong investment decisions and incompetent managers themselves must bear the burden of responsibility. We need to help people – citizens, consumers. Increase unemployment benefits and pensions. Provide retraining of personnel, subsidize the interest rate for new self-employment. In depressed regions, exempt citizens from taxes. By involving citizens in economic relationships, the state can thus solve structural changes in the economy.

And then it will not be officials who will make decisions based on their own understanding of economic feasibility, but citizens, participating in economic activities as entrepreneurs, will take on the risks of transformation and bear responsibility for them. You can help them by lending to them, reducing the interest rate, giving them money for some projects, but through economic mechanisms, through bank lending, and not through other forms. Well, in order for them to conduct their business activities in the new normal conditions, it is necessary to reduce government regulation, weaken the antimonopoly pressure on business, and minimize the number of inspections.

In general, the state, regardless of the crisis, must help its citizens, both consumers within the country and its producers abroad. And all policies should be aimed at this.

A disruption of the established economic state in a particular country or on a global scale, which is characterized by a decline in various financial indicators and the general state of the economy, is usually called a crisis.

It leads to massive bankruptcies of enterprises, a decrease in production levels, and a deterioration in the lives of the population.

We can identify the main features characterizing the economic crisis:

decline in production;
massive increase in unemployment;
depreciation of the national currency;
imbalance in financial spheres;
failure to maintain a balance between supply and demand in market relations;
decrease in the solvency of the population;
GDP decline;
outflow of foreign capital;
an increase in the balance of payments deficit;
a sharp and significant drop in prices in the raw materials industry.

The causes of the economic crisis are so diverse that it is difficult for a non-specialist to understand the primary sources and possible consequences. Decline may arise either as a result of a cyclical process requiring modernization and improvement of the management system or its revision and fundamental change. So, after natural and social disasters, due to military events involving a party experiencing a turning point in the economy.

It often happens to observe a combination of several factors that mutually influence the decline in macroeconomic indicators. The emergence of a crisis in a country can be provoked by external and internal factors.

Throughout the history of our planet, we have seen economic turning points of local and global significance more than once. They can be studied from textbooks and library archives. Contemporaries keep fresh memories of some of them in their memories. And the younger generation can learn about it in detail during lectures at specialized events.

Back to the past

The term “crisis” comes from the Greek word crisis. Its meaning is a turning point or a certain decision in a doubtful situation. In ancient times, it was used only in medicine and had a clear definition of the patient’s condition, after overcoming which it would become clear whether he would recover or whether the disease would finally destroy him.

Thus, we can say that the economic crisis is a turning point that will show in the future how the situation will turn out. And this depends on an adequate assessment by the country’s leadership of the situation, causes and possible consequences. And also the correctness of the actions they took to improve all indicators that had fallen into disrepair.

The concept of “crisis” was applied to processes occurring in society about 400 years ago. And only in the 19th century did it spread to the economic sphere.

Historian Philip Kay suggested that the world's first economic crisis occurred in the Roman Empire eighty-eight years before our era. Closer to our time with a vast geography covered England, France and the USA in 1825. It spread simultaneously to several industries.

Turning points in Russia

The Russian economy has found itself in similar situations more than once. A striking example is the crisis of 1812-1815.

Historians have identified the following main reasons:

a huge amount was allocated for the costs of military operations with Napoleonic France;
Great damage to the Russian economy was caused by the ban on trade relations with Great Britain;
huge expenses were required for the restoration of the western provinces, benefits for residents of cities affected by devastation;
the decline of peasant farms during the Patriotic War.

Agriculture suffered the most. At that time, peasant households were the basis of the Russian economy. That is why their ruin caused such serious consequences for the country’s economy. Complete depletion of material and military resources, post-war devastation, total losses exceeded 1 billion rubles. This amount was simply enormous, considering that the annual state income of that time was about 100 million rubles. Historians also testify that in order to further reduce economic indicators, French intelligence imported counterfeit paper rubles.

The Tariff Charter of 1810 saved Russia at that time from collapse in the financial and economic sphere. He was able to ensure a dominant volume of exports of goods over imported products. Financial assistance from England provided significant support for a decent resolution of the current situation.

A crisis trend in Russia was also observed in 1899. Its onset affected light industry and spread to heavy industry. Then about 3 thousand enterprises went bankrupt. Gross oil production decreased, and the production of carriages and steam locomotives decreased by half. The crisis of that time smoothly turned into a depression for our country, which ended only in 1909. Trying to increase labor productivity during this time, Russia managed to technically re-equip its enterprises. Thus, a decent number of people again received the opportunity to work and earn money.

Russia went into default in 1998. Government bonds depreciated, and the ruble exchange rate decreased three times in just 6 months.

These crises, together with the global crisis that came to Russia in 2008-2009, have a common motive - the fall in oil prices. The main industry that provides profit to the state is suffering. Even the current protracted crisis, which lasts throughout 2014-2015, which has already come into its own in 2016, has the same reason. Of course, the current situation is aggravated by an even slight decline in production and a slower rate of economic growth. This is largely due to the sanctions that some countries have applied to Russia.

And if in 1998, in a similar situation, difficult reforms for the country were completed, and many states and international foundations helped to get out of the decline, today the situation is different. Important reforms are ahead, and many former partner countries treat Russia more than carefully.

How can I help?

Undoubtedly, getting out of the economic crisis is not a lightning-fast process. This will require a comprehensive approach by the country's leadership to the problem and responsible adoption of many decisions. There are a lot of people for whom such an event and the search for compromise or radical solutions to the problem are their daily work. And when everyone minds their own business, everything is sure to ultimately be resolved in the best possible way.

It will be interesting and important for ordinary citizens to know about the scientifically proven fact of the influence of the psychological mood of society on the duration of the crisis, the form of the crisis and its consequences. Your behavior can equally turn out to be both a “trigger” and a “calming mechanism” for the country’s economy. Therefore, there is no need to fuss once again, sow confusion and provoke panic among fellow citizens. A calm and balanced attitude to life, good relationships with people can play an important role in resolving the difficult situation within the country.

Crises in the economy can have different scope and strength in their impact on the population. For example, in 2009, the Russian economy was experiencing a recession, but many did not feel its impact, which was largely due to its relatively short duration, the presence of monetary state savings that were used and thrown into the economy, as well as favorable conditions for Russia. situation on the global energy market. If one of these factors were missing, then the economic decline would be felt by all sectors of society.

Economic crisis in theory

Before understanding what specific consequences an economic downturn can bring in practice, it is necessary to determine the understanding of the term “economic crisis” in theory.It's actually very simple. An economic crisis is a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and GDP, in turn, is the sum of the values of all final goods and services produced within a country during the year. In other words, when an economic crisis occurs, the country experiences a reduction in the production of various goods, the country becomes poorer and the population can afford to buy fewer healthy products than before the crisis.

The destructiveness of the consequences of the economic decline depends on the depth and duration of the crisis. These processes are accompanied by large-scale layoffs of workers, and the severity of the crisis is directly related to the size of unemployment, which has increased due to the economic recession. The number of bankrupt companies is increasing, bank loan rates are rising, and household incomes are falling. In a more developed economic system, where there is a high degree of competition in various markets, e.g. There are practically no monopolies or several companies colluding to determine the price of their products and the degree of price regulation by the state is low; prices for goods and services in the economy begin to fall during the crisis. When the reverse process occurs, that is, there is an economic recession, and, nevertheless, prices for goods and services are rising, and inflation is rising, then in this case the economic system is far from perfect.

Economic crisis in practice

In practice, people may experience economic downturns in different ways. Someone may be fired from their job, someone may lose their business, others may not be able to cope with loan payments and will have to give away a car or apartment purchased with credit money, etc. Of course, this can happen to an individual and in the case when there is no crisis in the economy, but, on the contrary, the country is experiencing economic growth. It’s just that during downturns, these negative situations can affect everyone, and if in normal positive economic conditions it is quite difficult to predict what might happen to your economic life tomorrow, then in the presence of a crisis in the country a lot becomes predictable. Therefore, it is important to know whether a crisis has occurred in the economy or not.

An economic crisis for an ordinary person begins not with a drop in GDP, but with his dismissal, with the loss of his neighbor’s job. This is a “great” indicator for the average person. However, if a person is not fired from his job, this does not mean that he is lucky and has escaped the influence of the general recession. His real income begins to fall (inflation and the decreasing number of available goods in the economy begin to “rob” him) and he can afford less and less goods. A recession can ruin his plans to buy a home or a car on credit, since the interest on bank loans begins to rise and becomes very unprofitable. Therefore, during a crisis, it is very important to learn how to save correctly.

There are a number of positive properties that an economic crisis has. It makes sellers and buyers smarter, ruins ineffective and short-sighted business owners, motivates the use of new technologies in production that would reduce costs and make it possible to produce better and cheaper goods than before the crisis, and stimulates the development of scientific and technological progress. Along with these positive changes in the economic life of people, the economic crisis has another important property: it ends sooner or later. Therefore, it is very important to know how to behave in a crisis and how to wait it out.

Move from one place of work to another, especially if the new company is not large and there is a high probability of its bankruptcy in conditions of a prolonged and deep decline in the economy. Exceptions are government organizations and some private companies in which the state has a stake.
Take out a consumer loan, a car loan, a mortgage loan. Because in deteriorating economic conditions, real incomes will fall while the nominal level of wages appears to remain unchanged. In other words, the salary will be the same, only it will be possible to buy fewer products with it, including essential goods (food, medicine, etc.). As a result, more and more money will be spent on food, clothing, and transportation costs and less will be left to repay loans. Ultimately, if there is a prolonged crisis in the economy, you may not be able to repay the loan and will have to give back the goods purchased with the loan money.
Sell real estate, since prices for land, apartments, etc. usually fall during this period, although there are exceptions to this rule.
Keep money in one bank, unless it is large and one of the owners is the state.
Spend most of your income on entertainment.

Following a number of rules of “crisis” behavior ensures a person’s safety and insures him against wrong actions that can lead to negative consequences and great stress for both him and his environment.

Economic decline in countries around the world by the end of 2008 (red color according to the degree of decline)

For those who are panicking because of the economic crisis, Pope Benedict XVI reminds that “money is decay”, 2008.

World economic crisis

The crisis state of the world economy, which has sharply emerged since 2008 and has not been overcome to date. Evolved from the financial crisis that began in the United States. If not in depth, then in scale and consequences it is comparable only to the Great Depression of the 1930s. In 2009, global GDP showed negative dynamics for the first time since World War II.

World trade also fell by a record more than 10%, having recovered in volume by 2011 but still significantly lagging behind pre-crisis growth rates. Global industry is stagnating.

US economic downturn and the eurozone ended in the second quarter of 2009, but in 2011 the second recession began in the eurozone, which lasted until 2013 and became the longest in its history.

The global trend after the acute phase of the crisis in 2008 was the weakening of the middle class in the world, while before the crisis its share in the total volume of world wealth remained stable for a long time, notes the Global Wealth Report 2015 of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse. At the same time, the share of the richest 1% of people in global wealth exceeded 50%. and continues to increase.

Chief Economist IMF Olivier Blanchard notes in 2014 that as the consequences of the global crisis gradually weaken, the issue of income inequality comes to the fore in macroeconomics.

Unprecedented rise in unemployment led to the achievement of its record indicator in the entire history of observations of the labor market ( 199 million people in 2009).

The term is also common in foreign language sources Great Recession(English) Great Recession).

Origins and causes of the crisis

The emergence of a crisis associated with the general cyclical nature of economic development, imbalances in international trade and capital flows, as well as overheating of the credit market and especially the mortgage crisis that resulted from it - as a result of credit expansion, deployed in the 1980s and early 2000s.

According to the conclusion of the final report published in January 2011, created by decision US President Barack Obama a special commission of the American Congress to investigate the causes of the crisis of 2008-2009, the crisis was provoked by the following factors: failures in financial regulation, violations in the field of corporate governance, which led to excessive risks; excessively high household debt; widespread use of “exotic” securities (derivatives), the growth of an unregulated “shadow” banking system.

Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in December 2011 that the second wave of the crisis had begun: “it is now obvious that mass printing of money to maintain demand, support the economy and reduce unemployment will push the problem back, but will not get rid of it.” An article in The Washington Post (February 2013) notes that liquidity has stopped transforming into growth.

The beginning of the crisis in the USA

The United States of America, the world's largest economy, entered 2008 with a credit crisis, especially a mortgage crisis, which led to a sharp liquidity crisis in September 2008 when banks stopped issuing loans. George Soros noted that “the beginning of the 2008 crisis can be officially attributed to August 2007, when central banks were forced to take on financial obligations in order to ensure liquidity in the banking system.” After months of decline and job losses, the effort collapsed between 2007 and 2008, leading to the failure of fifty banks and financial institutions. This was also reflected in exchange-traded securities ( American stocks fell by more than 50%), on consumption and savings of the population.

In September 2008 In 2018, the situation worsened sharply due to the collapse of a number of financial institutions associated with the mortgage market, such as the investment bank Lehman Brothers, mortgage companies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG. To save some of these organizations, the US government has taken action, giving them hundreds of billions of dollars.

From December 2007 to June 2010, the Federal Reserve issued low-interest loans to various banks, corporations, and governments. trillions of dollars in loans.

The spread of the crisis in the world

The crisis quickly spread to the developed countries of the world.

In the pre-crisis years 2004-2007, the average growth rate of world trade was 8.74%. With a sharp decline in bank lending and a decline in demand for goods and services, in 2008 the volume of world trade increased by only 2.95%, and in 2009 it fell by 11.89%. The world GDP growth rate in 2008 was 1.83%, and in 2009, global GDP fell for the first time since World War II - by 2.3%.

In February 2008, the world inflation rate rose to a record high. Due to distrust in currencies, as noted by George Soros, the tendency to convert them into real assets prevailed, affecting primarily the raw materials sector - demonstrating rising prices for oil and gold. In 2009, the problem took on the opposite character: the economic forecast pointed to deflation, due to which, for example, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to almost zero.

Gold prices (2000--2008)

October 8, 2008 all leading central banks of the world, excluding the Central Banks of Japan and Russia, made an unprecedented decision to simultaneously reduce interest rates. This decision was regarded by observers as recognition of the global nature of the crisis.

October 10 The finance ministers and heads of central banks of the G7 countries who gathered for a meeting in Washington approved an anti-crisis plan, which replaced the final communique traditional for such meetings, stating that they would “ urgent and exceptional actions" The plan called for “using any available means to support systemically important financial institutions without allowing them to collapse” and other measures.

November 14 The leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) countries gathered at an anti-crisis summit, at which they adopted a declaration containing, in particular, general principles for reforming financial markets, reorganizing international financial institutions, and a commitment to refrain from using protectionist measures in the next 12 months.

December 4 The ECB and Bank of England have significantly lowered their benchmark interest rates in the face of the looming threat of deflation.

At the beginning of December 2008 The EU's statistics office reported that eurozone GDP fell 0.2% in the third quarter of 2008, the same as the previous quarter, as the European economy entered recession for the first time in 15 years. According to Eurostat data published in February 2009, industrial production in the European Union in December 2008 decreased by 11.5% in annual terms, and in the eurozone by 12%, such a strong drop was noted for the first time since 1986, when pan-European statistics began to be compiled.

European Central Bank (ECB) took the first measures with a certain delay. The main measures were austerity and restrictions on public spending, which led to credit crunch and difficult access to credit.

Because Europe represents 30% of world trade, the crisis in it will cause a delay in the recovery of the global economy. Europe seems to be the epicenter of destruction after the global financial crisis, noted K. Rogoff in March 2010.

April 2, 2009 The G20 summit took place in London, at which an Action Plan to overcome the global financial crisis was adopted. In particular, one of the most serious measures was the decision to significantly increase the IMF resources - up to $750 billion, support for new SDR allocations in the amount of 250 billion.

In a paper published by the IMF in early 2010, Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy"(“Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy”) notes that the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus on economic policy remain unchanged.

Worsening economic conditions contributed to the emergence of mass protest movements in countries North Africa and the Middle East, in particular Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria. In the first three countries listed Governments were overthrown.

In October 2010 obvious signs of currency war ( dollar, euro, yen and yuan). Countries have been lowering the prices of their currencies in order to gain a competitive advantage in order to facilitate the export of currencies, which in turn can help end the crisis. However, if the currency war and a series of incentives increase commercial tensions, this will lead to a trade war and will inevitably slow down the recovery process. A similar situation occurred during the Great Depression, initiated by the USA and Great Britain.

In 2010 IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard notes the undoubted recovery growth of the world economy, the main drivers of which are developing countries, especially Asian ones. This is because, with lower financial integration of low-income countries into the global economy, they have been exposed to the crisis primarily through trade, which is improving as rapidly as it previously deteriorated.

In March 2011 The first joint currency venture of the G7 in ten years took place (in September 2000 they acted to support the introduction of the euro) - they agreed on foreign exchange interventions to reduce the value of the yen and help the Japanese economy, which found itself in the worst crisis since the Second World War.

At the G20 meeting in Moscow in February 2013, which was expected to make a statement on the issue of currency wars, the final communiqué did not criticize Japan for depreciating the national currency. Currency wars are a risk, but developed countries need to maintain growth by any means necessary because the global economy depends on them, delegates decided.

Crisis in the countries of the former USSR

Belarus

Considering the underdevelopment of stock and financial markets in the country and their weak integration into the global financial system, the impact of the global financial crisis on the Belarusian economy manifested itself somewhat later compared to other countries. It is worth noting that the impact occurs through two main channels: a decrease in volumes (growth rates) of production in partner countries and, as a consequence, a decrease in demand for certain items of Belarusian exports (primarily petroleum products, ferrous metals, potash fertilizers, engineering products); limiting the possibilities of attracting foreign capital, both in the form of external borrowing and direct investment. At the same time, the features that complicated the situation in Belarus were: a long-existing deficit in the current account of the country’s balance of payments; insufficient influx of foreign direct investment into the country; limited gold and foreign exchange reserves; relatively high inflation and devaluation expectations.

Exacerbation of the crisis in 2011

In Belarus, the financial crisis has worsened since the spring of 2011. The devaluation of the Belarusian ruble in the first half of 2011 amounted to 75% in relation to a basket of foreign currencies.

Since March 2011, the Belarusian ruble has depreciated at rapid speed, with the official exchange rate formally kept at the level of 3007-3155 rubles per dollar (at which it was impossible to purchase currency) and the existence of a real “black” rate of 5500-6000 rubles.

On May 23, 2011, the government was forced to recognize the devaluation as a fait accompli and set the exchange rate at 4,930 rubles. for a dollar. This, however, only aggravated the situation in the economy and emphasized the population’s distrust of the authorities’ policies. Until September 2011, it was impossible to purchase currency for either legal entities or citizens, and on September 13, 2011, the National Bank allowed a free exchange rate at exchange offices and the introduction of an additional session on the currency exchange.

On October 13, at an additional session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, the dollar rose in price and reached a new record - 9,010 rubles. On October 14, the refinancing rate of the National Bank of Belarus was raised from 30 to 35% per annum to reduce pressure on the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. Inflation in Belarus for 9 months of 2011 amounted to 74.5%.

For this reason, on October 21, 2011, the second devaluation of the year was carried out, a single session was introduced and the exchange rate was set at 8,680 rubles. - the overall drop in the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar in 2011 was 270%. On an annualized basis, inflation in September 2011 was 79.6% (according to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus). Inflation in September 2011 alone was 13.6%.

Russia

Russian MICEX stock index in comparison with the American DJIA index. As a percentage of April 2008 values.

Index of industrial production in Russia in 2008-2010, as a percentage of the corresponding period of the previous year.

According to the World Bank, the Russian crisis of 2008 “began as a private sector crisis, triggered by excessive private sector borrowing in the face of a deep triple shock: terms of trade, capital flight, and tightening foreign borrowing conditions.”

The first sign of the beginning crisis in Russia began a downward trend in Russian stock markets at the end of May 2008, which turned into a collapse in quotes at the end of July, due, as some experts believe, to statements by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to the management of Mechel in July and military-political actions of the management countries in early August (armed conflict in South Ossetia).

Features of the Russian economy before the crisis, there was a large volume of external corporate debt with an insignificant public debt and the third largest gold and foreign exchange reserves of the state in the world.

September 18, 2008 year V.V. Putin, at a meeting in Sochi with foreign entrepreneurs who came to the economic forum, said: “We see tension on our trading floors, but we believe that this is not related to our problems, we do not have systemic problems. All capital indicators of the Russian economy are normal.” The next day, Putin told Kommersant newspaper correspondent A.I. Kolesnikov: “So there is no longer any crisis!” On January 28, 2009, in Davos, Putin said in his speech, in particular, that the crisis “literally hung in the air. However, the majority did not want to notice the rising wave.”

Liquidity crisis in Russian banks, a sharp drop in stock indices RTS and MICEX, the fall in prices for export products (raw materials and metals) began to affect the real sector of the economy in October - November 2008: a sharp decline in industrial production began, and the first wave of job cuts began. On November 25, 2008 it was reported, that, according to calculations by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, for the first time since the start of the global crisis, a decrease in GDP in Russia was recorded in one month compared to the previous one: in October, GDP decreased by 0.4% compared to September, although in annual terms, compared since October 2007, increased by 5.9%. On December 12, 2008, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Andrei Klepach admitted that in the fourth quarter the Russian economy entered a recession.

In September - October 2008 The Russian government announced the first anti-crisis measures aimed at solving the most urgent task at that time: strengthening the Russian financial system. These measures included monetary, fiscal and quasi-fiscal policy instruments that were aimed at ensuring the repayment of external debt by the largest banks and corporations, reducing liquidity shortages and recapitalizing major banks. Budget expenditures aimed at supporting the financial system exceeded 3% of GDP. These expenses were carried out through two channels: by providing liquidity in the form of subordinated loans and through injections into the capital of the banking system.

According to the World Bank, “this made it possible to achieve stabilization of the banking system in conditions of extreme liquidity shortage and prevent panic among the population: the net outflow of deposits from the banking system stabilized, the growth of foreign currency deposits began, bankruptcies among large banks were avoided, and the process of consolidation of the banking sector was resumed.”

The government's attempts to contain the depreciation of the Russian ruble led to losses up to a quarter of gold and foreign exchange reserves Russian Federation; from the end of November 2008, the financial authorities embarked on a policy of “soft devaluation” of the ruble, which, according to a journalist from Nezavisimaya Gazeta, significantly accelerated the decline in industry in November - December 2008, forcing enterprises to curtail production and withdraw working capital to the foreign exchange market.

According to data released on January 23, 2009 by Rosstat, in December 2008 the fall in industrial production in Russia reached 10.3% compared to December 2007 (8.7% in November), which was the deepest decline in production over the last decade; in general, in the 4th quarter of 2008, the fall in industrial production was 6.1% compared to the same period in 2007.

At the end of 2009, the Russian stock market turned out to be the world leader in growth, the RTS index grew 2.3 times. On March 12, 2010, Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted that the Russian stock market managed to win back most of the decline that occurred at the beginning of the global financial crisis. According to the same source, this happened thanks to the anti-crisis program implemented by the Russian government.

In March 2010 the World Bank report noted that the losses in the Russian economy were less than expected at the beginning of the crisis. According to the World Bank, this was partly due to the large-scale anti-crisis measures that the government took.

Ukraine

Ukraine during the beginning of the crisis a large IMF loan was taken out in the amount of $16.5 billion. with the country's total gold and foreign exchange reserves at that time being about $32 billion. On December 1, 2008, the first tranche was received - $4 billion. The loan was intended to pay Western creditors the debts of commercial enterprises and banks of Ukraine. Despite the loan, Ukraine became one of the countries most affected by the crisis:

In October 2008 industrial production in Ukraine fell by 19.8% and for the first time since August 2005, a fall in GDP was recorded - by 2.1%.
In November 2008 Ukraine's GDP fell by 14% relative to November 2007.
In November 2008 drop in production by November 2007 amounted to: light industry −19.1%, processing industry −29%, mining industry −32.1%, chemical industry −35.2%, mechanical engineering −38.8%, metallurgy −48.8%.
The hryvnia devalued by more than half against the US dollar over a period of 4 months: from 4.60 UAH in August up to 10 UAH. December 18, 2008 for 1 US dollar. However, since April 2009, the hryvnia exchange rate has risen sharply and by mid-May it has already reached 7.4 UAH/USD.
Public refusal in November 2008 of the National Bank of Ukraine, in accordance with the condition of providing an IMF loan, to support the hryvnia exchange rate.
On December 19, the NBU announced the possibility of an “internal default,” blaming the government in advance.
In October, the NBU, by a special resolution, prohibited early withdrawals of money from bank deposits. As a result, the “frozen” hryvnia deposits of the population, which cannot be withdrawn from banks, have greatly depreciated.
In November - December, many commercial banks unilaterally raised interest rates on previously issued foreign currency and hryvnia loans - an average of one and a half times. Thus, foreign currency loans became a trap. As of December 11, at the official (lower) exchange rate of 7.47 UAH/USD. foreign currency loans to individuals alone amounted to 191.7 billion hryvnia, increasing from 130 billion in October solely due to the fall of the hryvnia. Since November, banks have almost completely stopped lending to the population.
The foreign trade balance deficit (the excess of imports over exports) reached $17 billion in 10 months of 2008. To cover this deficit, borrowed funds were raised abroad and within the country.
A significant reduction in the NBU's liquid gold and foreign exchange reserves - from 38 billion on September 1 to $27.2 billion in December.

At the end of 2009, Ukraine's GDP fell by 14.8%, which was one of the worst indicators of GDP dynamics in the world. Over the same year, industrial production fell by 25% (only Botswana and Estonia had a steeper decline).

Crisis in different countries

On December 4, the Bank of England cut its base rate by 1 percentage point - the rate dropped to 2%, the lowest level in the history of the Bank of England since 1694.
In early December 2008, the Bank of Canada cut the refinancing rate to its lowest level since 1958 and admitted that the country's economy had entered a recession.

USA

In August 2007, Bear Stearns was at the center of the subprime mortgage crisis. At that time it was the fifth largest investment bank in the United States. As a result, two hedge funds under his management lost almost all of their clients' money ($1.6 billion) on investments in mortgage bonds, which caused panic in the stock market. On March 14, 2008, the company announced that it needed urgent financing to meet payment obligations due to the ongoing credit crisis in the country. The US Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase agreed to provide additional financing. Immediately after this news, the bank's shares fell by 47%.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers, one of the largest banks in the United States, announced its bankruptcy.

Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics n. Savchenko A.V. noted that “Lehman Brothers... was the strongest player in the credit default swap market. Having lost insurance for their investments, American investors hastily began to close positions in emerging markets and flee into the dollar.”

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to doubts about the possibility of payments by insurance companies insuring against the risks of bankruptcy of the credited (CDS), which led to a crisis of the CDS instrument itself and a sharp increase in insurance risks, resulting in a crisis of confidence between banks and a sharp increase in lending rates, which had a particularly strong impact in emerging credit markets, including Ukraine and Russia.

The LIBOR-OIS spread (showing the difference between the LIBOR rate and the futures on the official rate of the Central Bank - evidence of the availability of money in the interbank market) at the end of September 2008 exceeded 200 basis points for dollar loans, and at the beginning of October - 250.

“Five leading US investment banks ceased to exist in their previous capacity: Bear Stearns was resold, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was resold, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley changed their name, ceased to be investment banks due to special risks and the need to receive additional support from the Federal reserve system."

Five years later, in 2014, according to the report “The Precarious State of Family Finances” by the independent nonprofit organization The Pew Charitable Trusts, the majority (70%) of American (U.S.) families are characterized by “strained financial situations” in terms of in terms of income, expenses or general well-being.

Greece

Greece is the EU member state most affected by the economic crisis. The Greek government borrowed a huge amount to cover its budget deficit. External public debt began to become alarmingly large in early 2010. The situation worsened when data was released on the state of the Greek macroeconomy, including the real size of public debt, which the conservative Karamanlis government kept silent about for two electoral terms.

Due to its inability to repay the debt, the government was forced to cut public sector spending, causing riots and demonstrations since the crisis began. On April 23, 2010, it asked the European Union to issue a loan, which was the first measure taken to cover the debt. Thus, Greece became the first European country to ask for help in the fight against this financial disease, later joined by Portugal and Ireland. In 2010, the IMF and the European Union provided Greece with a line of credit in the amount of 110 billion euros to bring the country out of the crisis. In the summer of 2011, Greece asked for a second loan, despite all efforts to reduce the debt, Greece's public debt is approaching 350 billion euros. Eurozone leaders and the International Monetary Fund have agreed to provide Greece with an additional 109 billion euros in aid.

The agreement was reached at an emergency summit in Brussels on July 21, 2011. Another approximately 50 billion euros should be provided by private investors. As a result, the total amount of aid to Greece will be 159 billion euros. Private investors are invited to exchange Greek government bonds maturing in the coming years. The total exchange volume of Greek bonds will be 135 billion euros.

The Greek economy, like no other, was overloaded with debt as a result of the crisis. On July 1, 2015, Greece defaulted.

China

By 2007, for the fifth year in a row Chinese GDP grew by more than 10%, the growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2007 reached the highest rate in the last 13 years - 11.4%, however, in the last months of 2007, amid growing fears about the US economy entering a recession, the growth rate of the PRC economy began to decline. According to economists, this was caused by the August subprime crisis in the United States and the growing likelihood that the world's largest economy would enter a recession.

Based on the results of the first three quarters of 2008, the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the PRC amounted to about 2 trillion dollars., however, in the fourth quarter, these reserves began to decline, dropping to $1.9 trillion. The Chinese authorities announced a plan to invest up to $586 billion in infrastructure renewal and in agriculture. This amount amounts to up to 18% of China's GDP, while the Paulson Plan in the United States amounts to up to 6% of GDP. The implementation of a package of anti-crisis measures began in October 2008, for which China allocated 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion).

November 20, 2008 Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Member of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Yin Weimin officially acknowledged the increase in the number of unemployed in the country, calling the situation “critical”: export-oriented factories are forced to close. Due to the reduction in external demand, the Chinese government’s intentions are announced to reorient the economy to domestic demand. Also, representatives of the PRC announced the proposed transfer of their reserves to gold.

The deterioration of the global market situation led to the fact that Chinese industry reduced the demand for raw materials, which, in turn, led to a decrease in world prices, including for metallurgical products.

On January 7, 2009, the Xinhua agency, commenting on statements by Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke, blamed the global crisis on the US authorities, accusing them of “excessive issuance of dollars with the connivance of control agencies.”

The most difficult year for China was November 2008, and the lowest point of the decline occurred in the first quarter of 2009, when China's GDP grew by only 6.1%, China's export volumes in the first quarter of 2009 decreased by 30.9%.

Chinese state-owned enterprises SASAC already in March 2009 demonstrated reaching pre-crisis production levels; moreover, they received 26% more profit than in the same period in 2008.

Chinese Supreme Leader Hu Jintao noted that during 2010, “we effectively consolidated and expanded the successes achieved in repelling the blows of the international financial crisis.”

In August 2011, the index of business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector, calculated by HSBC Bank, fell into the depressed area for the first time since the winter of 2008-2009, where it remained until October 2012.

Japan

The team of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who led the cabinet from 2001 to 2006, managed to lead the country out of this crisis through the rehabilitation of the banking system and an unconventional monetary policy called “quantitative easing” (the Central Bank’s purchase of financial assets to inject money into economy with interest rates close to zero. This policy was tested in Japan and is currently used by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB). The rise occurred at a low pace: about 2% per year of GDP growth in real terms and a 3–3.5% increase in industrial production.

The reason for the new recession, which began in mid-2008 after more than six years of growth, was the situation on world markets. Japan's economy was hit by falling demand in the US and Europe. where about 20% and about 15% of exports were sent, respectively. The shock was also the panic in global financial markets and the weakening of the dollar. The yen turned out to be the strongest world currency. By mid-2012, the nominal exchange rate of the yen had risen from pre-crisis levels of 107–109 yen per dollar and 150 yen per euro to 77–79 yen per dollar and 98–100 yen per euro, or by 30–50 percentage points.

What explains this appreciation of the yen? Partly due to speculation by currency dealers on the difference in interest rates on loans: in Japan, the bank rate on short-term loans is kept at 1.5%, and in the USA - at 3.3% per annum. Another reason is the different price dynamics in domestic markets. For example, in the United States there is slight inflation: in 2011, prices in the consumer market rose by 3.2% compared to the pre-crisis year of 2007. In Germany, the inflation rate was 2.3%. In Japan, prices have decreased by 0.3% over these years. Accordingly, the purchasing power of the yen became higher. But the yen's exchange rate deviated further from its purchasing power parity. The point is also that Japan's balance of payments on current accounts invariably ends up with a positive balance, since investors transfer not only dividends (which will be discussed below) into yen, but also interest income. This supports the demand for the Japanese currency. At the same time, currency interventions by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan cannot reduce the yen exchange rate for more than a month.

On October 10, 2008, the Nikkei 225 index fell to its lowest level since May 2003, falling 881.06 points (-9.62%) to 8,276.43 points. The Central Bank of Japan announced its intention to allocate $35.5 billion to support the financial market; earlier the Central Bank allocated about $40 billion. On the same day, the insurance company Yamato Life Insurance Co. went bankrupt. Ltd., whose debt amounted to about $2.7 billion.

Crisis duration estimates

In 2008-2009, most politicians and economists predicted that the crisis would end soon. However, there were those who spoke about its long-term nature. Doctor of Economic Sciences G. Tsagolov identified three main opinions at that time: rapid post-crisis recovery, the onset of the second wave of the crisis, and the preservation of the stagnant state of the world economy. Over time, more and more economists began to talk about the prolonged nature of the crisis. It is especially emphasized that the crisis is far from over and it continues to develop. IMF Chief Economist O. Blanchard said in 2012 that the world economy will need at least another ten years to get rid of the consequences of the crisis that began in 2008. The influential Chinese scientist Li Shenming noted: “The world economy has entered a long period of recession. With the global spread of neoliberalism, the wave of privatization is driving the world economy to a dead end... There are more and more poor people in the world, and they continue to get poorer. There are fewer rich people, and they are only getting richer. Impoverishment occurs in almost all countries.”

After all, in most countries the current crisis may surpass the Great Depression in severity, noted Prof. Carmen Reinhart. She and Kenneth Rogoff predict it will take another five years for the global economy to recover.

As the head of the IMF, C. Lagarde, stated in October 2014, the global economy is facing a long period of low growth, high unemployment and geopolitical problems - and the latter, in turn, lead to an even greater deterioration of the economic situation.

As noted at the beginning of 2015, many international economic organizations, such as the World Bank, IMF and OECD, in the course of studying global economic processes, agreed that the 2008 crisis continues to deepen.

Second wave or continuation of the crisis

On September 30, 2011, Nobel Prize winner in economics Christopher Pissarides expressed the opinion that the situation in the global economy is incorrectly called the second wave of the crisis - it continues to be in a recession that began in 2008.

2011

By mid-2011, CNN polls had recorded the highest level of Americans—nearly half of respondents—expecting a repeat of the Great Depression within a year since polling began in October 2008. Also, a record number of Americans, nearly one in three, said they were afraid of being unemployed.

Summer 2011 The issue of the US debt limit has become acute. On August 2, the US Congress approved a plan to increase the national debt limit and reduce the budget deficit. If the plan was not accepted, the United States faced a technical default, since the country would lose the ability to service its debt. On the night of August 5-6, Standard & Poor’s for the first time in history downgraded the US long-term credit rating from the maximum level of “AAA” to “AA+” with a negative outlook. Gold rose in price by 12% that August.

On August 8, 2011, prominent American economist Nouriel Roubini opined that the American economy “continues to weaken due to low growth rates, and the economic growth of the European Union has stalled.” At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is confident that a second wave of recession in the global economy is unlikely; according to him, representatives of the authorities and central banks have time to prevent a new crisis.

Summing up 2011, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard notes that it began for the global economy in recovery mode and with hope, but ended with stalled growth and a loss of confidence: “By the end of the year, the recovery of many advanced economies had stalled, with some investors even considering the possibility of collapse eurozone, there is a real possibility that the situation will be worse than in 2008.”

2012

In January 2012, academician Yevgeny Primakov said that “talks about an upcoming recession in the center of the world economy - in the United States - are groundless.” He also noted that “the conclusions about the sharp weakening of the dollar, almost abandoning the mission of the global means of payment, are unrealistic.”

At the end of the first half of 2012 Wall Street's five largest banks reported their worst half-year financial results since the 2008 crisis. The Global Wealth Report, prepared by Credit Suisse, notes a decline in the total wealth of the world's population from mid-2011 to mid-2012 by 5.2%, the first such decline recorded since 2007-2008. The IMF's World Economic Outlook report (October 2012) notes that the global economy could slide into recession, the risks of which are alarmingly high.

“The debate has been revolving around two points of view for several years now: we need to fight the national debt or stimulate demand. Now those who propose to stimulate demand are winning, but this means nothing,” noted American economist Lawrence Summers in October 2012.

US GDP fell by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012, the first contraction of the American economy since 2009. In total, American GDP grew by 2.2% in 2012 (compared to 1.8% in 2011). The EU economy shrank by 0.3% in 2012, and eurozone GDP by 0.5%. At the end of 2012, China's GDP grew by 7.8% compared to the previous year, which was the lowest figure since 1999, when growth was 7.6%.

In 2012, global GDP grew by 3.2% and global trade increased by 2.5%. Global unemployment, which peaked at 199 million in 2009, then declined but began to rise again in 2012, increasing by four million over the year for a total of 197 million (6% of the world's working population).

In the summer of 2013, the UK Office for National Statistics announced that the country had avoided a second wave of recession in 2012. (In 2012 it was claimed that the UK was experiencing its first double-dip recession since the 1970s, caused by the negative impact of the eurozone debt crisis.)

2013

In March In 2013, a financial crisis broke out in the Republic of Cyprus, leading to the destruction of its banking system. The country's economy entered a default state.

In April In 2013, the IMF noted that the second year of recession in Europe demonstrates that the region’s economy is lagging behind the rest of the world; according to the fund’s chief economist O. Blanchard, “Europe continues to be the main risk factor.” The authors of the Winter Economic Outlook published by the European Commission (February 2014) note that the European economy emerged from recession in the spring of 2013, followed by three consecutive quarters of “muted recovery.”

In 2013 global GDP growth rates amounted to 2.3-2.4%. In 2013, the number of unemployed people in the world increased by 5 million people compared to a year earlier; at the end of the year, almost 202 million people around the world were officially unemployed, noted a report by the International Labor Organization (ILO) (Jan. 2014). The same 2014 Global Labor Market Assessment report noted that more than five years after the 2008 crisis, global economic growth remains too weak to create enough new jobs.

2014

In January 2014, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth based on expectations of accelerated GDP growth in the United States, the Eurozone and Japan. The fund's experts note that developed countries have become the locomotive of global growth, rather than developing ones, as was the case in the early years of the crisis. The spring World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) from the IMF notes that “we are still very far from a full recovery.” At the same time, the foundation's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, notes that as the consequences of the global crisis gradually weaken, the issue of income inequality becomes paramount.

In June 2014, the World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth as the crisis in Ukraine, combined with unusually cold weather in the United States, negatively impacted growth rates in the first half of that year. Reduction in US GDP in the first quarter. 2014 was the worst since the 2007-2009 recession and amounted to 2.9%.

In the summer of 2014, the capitalization of global stock markets reached a historical high of $66 trillion in August, surpassing the previous peak of $63 trillion. 2007 (during the crisis, collapsing to $25 trillion).

According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth in 2014 was 3.4%.

2015

In the spring of 2015, IMF head Christine Lagarde noted that “the global economic recovery continues, but it is moderate and uneven. People in many parts of the world are not experiencing this recovery. In addition, financial and geopolitical risks have increased.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted that the instability of global economic growth was caused by geopolitical risks caused by the conflict in Ukraine and the Islamic State. Worry is the slowdown in the Chinese economy, which accounts for more than a third of global economic growth. According to OECD experts, events in China outweigh the improvement in the situation in the United States - the economic downturn in China is considered the main risk factor for the global economy. According to the famous top investor M. Faber (August 2015), the world economy is currently slowing down and will face a recession again in the near future. According to Fitch Ratings, global GDP in 2015 will grow at the lowest rate since 2009, but economic growth will accelerate in the future.

In 2015, for the first time since the acute phase of the crisis in 2008, the volume of global wealth decreased, which is mainly explained by the strengthening of the US dollar, as noted in the Global Wealth Report 2015 by the Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

At the same time, in the third quarter, the global Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index rose to its highest level since 2006; in the United States, it reached its highest level in all 10 years of measurement; in Europe, it continued to grow for the third quarter in a row and reached its highest level since 2008.

According to the World Bank, global economic growth in 2015 was 2.4%, growth forecast for 2016 is 2.9%. In January 2016, the forecast for the coming year was indicated by the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, as uncertain.

For our compatriots, the word “crisis” has long become almost familiar. We hear it quite often in the news - after all, the economic crisis in Russia happens even more often than once a decade (if we take the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union).

However, not everyone knows exactly what the causes of the economic crisis in Russia are and how this threatens the ordinary citizen.and when it will end.IQReview I have collected up-to-date information and answers to similar questions in one place.

What is an economic crisis and what are its symptoms?

To summarize: an economic crisis is a set of events during which significant and sharp drop in production.

T This situation has a number of signs, including:

Rising unemployment rate.

Significant depreciation of the national currency.

Imbalance of supply and demand in various markets for goods and services.

Decrease in the solvency of citizens.

Decrease in GDP (or cessation of growth - if before this GDP was steadily increasing).

Decrease in the pace and volume of production in various industrial sectors.

Outflow of foreign capital.

Reducing the cost of raw materials.

The listed “symptoms” are only the main ones - in fact, the list of problems in the economy is much longer. They usually manifest themselves sharply, comprehensively (several points at once), and in a significant volume. For example, if the unemployment rate in the country increases by 5% over a year, then this is bad, but far from a crisis. But if in six months the national currency has depreciated by 30%, GDP has fallen, several thousand enterprises have gone bankrupt, and performance in various sectors of the economy has fallen - this is already a crisis.

Classification of crisis situations

Since a crisis is a large-scale phenomenon, it can be divided into various categories based on a number of characteristics:

Partial or sectoral. It is characterized by the fact that it covers a separate sector of the economy without leading to significant problems in other areas.

Cyclical. Characterized by the fact thatoccurs regularly (repeated at approximately equal time intervals). Typically, its causes are the obsolescence of industrial equipment and technologies, which leads to higher prices for products. To overcome such problems, a reorganization of the production structure is required.

Intermediate. It is similar to cyclical, but differs in that problems do not appear so acutely and abruptly. Also, the intermediate crisis is not regular - it does not repeat itself at approximately equal time intervals.

Crisis situations can also be divided by localization. They can occur in a single region, in a single country, several countries (neighboring), or in a large number of countries. The global economic crisis is the last option, when an economic decline is observed in several major countries at the same time.

Modern classification of economics

According to the NBER classification (National Bureau of Economic Research, USA), the state of the modern economy consists of only 4 phases:

Economic cycle

Peak (when the economic situation is at its most comfortable level).

Recession (when stability is disrupted and the economy begins to steadily deteriorate).

Bottom (lowest point of decline).

Revival (overcoming a low point, followed by a way out of a crisis situation).

N A little history: when have serious economic crises ever occurred?

To confirm the words that the global economic crisis is a regular phenomenon, here is a list of the largest economic collapses:

1900-1903. The crisis suddenly began in most European countries, and a little later in the United States. This economic crisis in Russia (in those years - still the Russian Empire) began even earlier - in 1899. Moreover, in Russia it developed into a protracted depression, which lasted about a decade - until 1909.

1914-1922, First World War. The crisis erupted due to military action that stopped or seriously affected the operations of thousands of companies in participating countries. The problems began even before the outbreak of hostilities - when the situation began to heat up and panic began in the financial markets.

“Price Scissors”, 1923. The collapse that affected the economy of the “young” USSR. It arose due to the lack of balance between the prices of industrial and agricultural goods.

"The Great Depression", 1929-1939. It had the strongest impact on the USA and Canada, to a lesser extent on France and Germany, and was also felt in other developed countries. The reasons for this collapse have not been precisely established; there are several versions. It broke out after the stock market crash in the United States, on Wall Street (this is where the expression “Black Monday” came from).

1939-1945, World War II. Naturally, such large-scale military actions led to the decline of the economies of all participating countries and affected other states.

Oil crisis (or oil embargo), 1973. Began due to the refusal of a number of countries (Arab states that are members of OAPEC, Egypt, Syria) to supply oil to Japan, the USA, the Netherlands, Canada, and the UK. The main objective of this action was to put pressure on these countries for supporting Israel in the military conflict against Syria and Egypt. This economic crisis in Russia (USSR at that time) did not bring negative consequences. On the contrary: oil supplies from the Union have increased significantly, and its cost in 1 year has increased from $3 to $12 per barrel.

The collapse of the USSR, the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The situation that led to the collapse of the Union developed under the pressure of several factors: sanctions from the West, decreased oil prices, lack of sufficient quantities of consumer goods, high unemployment, military operations in Afghanistan, and general dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. The collapse had a strong impact on the countries of the Union, and to a lesser extent on neighboring states (due to the deterioration or complete cessation of cooperation).

Russian crisis, 1994. After the collapse of the Union, the economic situation in the Russian Federation was in a deplorable state, and from 1991 to 1994 the situation steadily worsened. The causes of the problems were errors in state property, loss of economic ties, outdated technologies and equipment in production.

Russian default, 1998. Developed due to the inability to pay government debts. The precondition was the crisis in Asia, a sharp drop in oil prices and a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble (from 6 rubles to 21 rubles in just less than a month). The way out of the situation was protracted and difficult, and lasted for several years (it took different periods for different areas of the economy).

Asian financial crisis, 1997-1998 (one of the reasons for the Russian default). To one degree or another, it affected all states of the planet. It developed due to the very rapid growth of the economies of Asian countries, which caused a massive influx of foreign capital into them. As a consequence, this led to “overheating,” sharp fluctuations in the financial and real estate markets, and subsequently to their destabilization and decline.

2008-2011. The scale and consequences of the economic crisis are comparable to the Great Depression. The collapse developed sharply in the United States, starting with the financial crisis. Having spread to the eurozone, it lasted even longer - until 2013. The crisis had little impact on the Russian segment, and its main consequences were overcome back in 2010.

Current crisis (since 2014). It was reflected in many countries by a sharp decline in the cost of oil. Sanctions that have disrupted economic relations between Western countries and the Russian Federation also have an impact.

Economic situation in Russia: a brief history of the current crisis

Since the last major crisis for Russia has not yet ended, we should dwell on it in more detail.

Economic situation in Russia

One of the first reasons for its development was the “Ukrainian events”, during which the Crimean peninsula passed from Ukraine to Russia. Also, since the first half of 2014, the Russian Federation has been regularly accused of sending troops into the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. There is still no evidence of these accusations, but they still continue to be voiced.

To put pressure on the “aggressor,” Western countries (the United States and a number of European countries) introduced sanctions against the Russian Federation. Restrictions affected the industrial and financial sectors, which led to a sharp deterioration in the situation due to the fact that a number of companies lost the opportunity to receive “cheap” loans abroad and buy foreign equipment (raw materials, technologies).

At the same time, oil prices began to decline rapidly. From 2012 to mid-2014 they were in the range of $100-115 per barrel, and already in December 2014 they reached $56.5 (the lowest point since 2009). After this, the price of oil did not stabilize, but fluctuated regularly, and when it fell, it reached $27.5 per barrel (for the first time since 2003).

Due to the fact that the Russian economy was largely dependent on oil exports, this quickly led to a deterioration in the economy in all its sectors (in addition to the deterioration that arose due to sanctions).

Now (at the beginning of 2017) the country from the economic crisis gradually comes out. The price of oil has stabilized and has been in the 50-57 range since the fall of 2016$ per barrel. Along with the cost of raw materials, the national currency has also stabilized - about 55-60 rubles per dollar.

How do such problems threaten the average citizen?

The crisis is not only felt by companies in various sectors of the economy. It has no less influence on the ordinary citizen. An unfavorable situation leads to the following consequences:

Wages decrease (or slow down, or their growth stops).

Purchasing power decreases (due to rising prices, decreasing wages, and the desire to save).

We have to give up our usual range of products and entertainment.

Opportunities for receiving medical care and education are deteriorating.

Jobs are being cut (this can both lead to dismissal if a person has a job, and makes it more difficult for those who are looking for one).

The selection of goods in stores is decreasing (not always, not critically, and not in all areas).

Add to this other - intangible - problems. For a population whose standard of living is falling, their mood worsens—for every citizen individually. If the situation drags on, social tension may increase: trust in the government decreases, citizens more actively express their dissatisfaction (online, at rallies).

Causes of the crisis

There are many theories and explanations of the causes of crises, but one of the most common is the Marxist version. Proposed by Karl Marx (1st volume of Capital, 1867), it quite accurately describes the essence of problematic situations in the economy. Karl Marx noted that until the end of the 18th century (before the Industrial Revolution, when production began to rapidly develop in many countries), there were no regular cycles of booms and busts in the economy.

According to this theory, crisis is an integral part of the capitalist economy. No matter how stable, reliable and balanced the economic system of the state is, crisis situations still happened in it, are happening and will continue to happen. They can be “tamed,” their impact can be weakened, and they can be made more rare, but they cannot be completely eliminated.

Distributing free food to the unemployed during the Great Depression (USA)

According to the author, this is explained by the fact that any capitalist (owner of an enterprise) strives to increase profits. To do this, you need to sell as many goods as possible at the lowest cost of production. That is, the volume of production is reached to the maximum.

However, no one controls the balance between the total cost of goods produced and the real wages of the population (which always receives less than it produces - otherwise the capitalist would not make a profit). As a result, over time, this leads to the production owner’s profit falling.

To avoid this, he begins to take active steps that are aimed either at increasing the volume of goods or at further reducing production costs. When this does not help, layoffs begin at enterprises until they go bankrupt. As a result, unemployment is growing, and competitors are trying to take over the vacated market space, and they will then face the same problems.

To summarize, each new economic crisis arises due to a lack of balance between the production and consumption of goods and services.

If we evaluate more narrowly, then among the causes of problems we can highlight:

Uncontrolled growth of inflation.

Focus on one sector of the economy and insufficient attention to other areas.

Political instability.

Errors in management.

Obsolescence of production.

The production of uncompetitive products that are inferior to imported goods, and at the same time cost no less (or not much cheaper) than them.

Ways out of the crisis

TO Each crisis situation is individual, and therefore there is no single “recipe” for overcoming it. However, we can summarize several basic steps that the authorities need to take to solve the problem:

Diversification of budget funds: creating the maximum number of ways to generate income. In this case, due to a fall in production in one industry (as in oil prices now in Russia), the economy as a whole will suffer less.

Creation of jobs - to increase employment of the population. This is useful for the budget because more funds will come in the form of taxes, and, in addition, the population will spend more, stimulating production. To create jobs, it is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for doing business.

Containing inflation.

Financial control: exchange rate, interest rate.

Informing the population and enterprises: about the current situation, forecasts and prospects, recommendations for overcoming problems.

Updating the industrial sector: equipment, technologies.

Support for key sectors of the economy, if necessary - adjustment of budget distribution (reducing costs for less important sectors and increasing costs for more important ones).