Introduction

The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

The impact of the population explosion on international economic security

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

In the demographic history of mankind, two large periods can be roughly distinguished. The first of them corresponded to the so-called agrarian civilization and lasted until approximately the second half of the 17th century. It was characterized by relatively low population growth. In the conditions of a primitive society, even in the presence of polygamy (i.e., polygamy), natural growth was insignificant, since the birth rate and death rate, being at a high level, were mutually balanced.

The most noticeable changes in the number of inhabitants of the globe, marking the transition to the second period of demographic development, have occurred over the past three-plus centuries. But even against this background, the growth rate in the 60s turned out to be unprecedented. Then the concept of a demographic explosion arose - a sharp increase in population growth, and gloomy forecasts of the rapid overpopulation of the planet appeared.

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of the population explosion on international economic security.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

Describe the essence of the demographic explosion;

Consider the threats to international economic security caused by the population explosion.

The object of this work is the population explosion.

The subject of this work is the peculiarities of the influence of the population explosion on international economic security.

1. The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

The population explosion is a figurative designation for the rapid quantitative growth of the world population that began in the 1950s. From journalistic literature, the term “Demographic Explosion” has passed into modern scientific research, including works examining the concept of demographic transition. From the standpoint of this concept, a demographic explosion is a sharp acceleration of population growth due to the establishment of an intermediate type of reproduction of us. As a rule, during this period, the decrease in mortality significantly outstrips the decrease in fertility, which leads to an accelerated increase in the population, which may not be consistent with the objective requirements of the socio-economic development of society.

The transition from the traditional to the modern type of population reproduction began at the end of the 18th century in a number of capitalist countries of Western Europe, gradually spread to other countries and by the middle of the 20th century covered the whole world. In different countries, the demographic transition has its own characteristics, determined by the entire course of historical development, the economic, political, social and cultural restructuring of society along the path of industrial development, and the socio-economic system under which this transition takes place in a particular country. Hence, in particular, the differences in the duration and power of the demographic explosion.

Three typical patterns of development of the modern demographic transition can be distinguished (see Fig. 1). The first (A) was typical for France, where the change in types (and corresponding regimes) of fertility and mortality occurred almost in parallel, due to which this country practically did not experience a demographic explosion. This scheme is an exception to the general rule; in most countries where the demographic transition unfolded in the 19th century, it proceeded according to scheme B. In Great Britain, for example, the decline in mortality began at the same time as in France (at the end of the 18th century), and the decline birth rate - 100 years later, as a result of which during the 19th century the country's population increased by almost 26 million people or 3.4 times (the population of France - by a little more than 40%); at the same time, at least 10 million people emigrated (emigration from France was insignificant).

Scheme B was typical for most European countries, and therefore Western Europe as a whole experienced a demographic explosion in the 19th century. Its population almost doubled over the course of a century (in the 18th century it increased by less than one and a half times) and, moreover, several tens of millions of people emigrated from Western European countries. The demographic explosion in Western Europe ended quite quickly - at the beginning of the 20th century. He left a noticeable mark on history, because he contributed to a significant increase in the population of this region and the settlement of the New World, but still had limited, regional significance and could not have a significant impact on the growth rate of the world population.

Figure 1 - Typical development patterns of the demographic transition and demographic explosion: A - absence of a demographic explosion (France); B - small population explosion (Sweden); B - Big Population Explosion (Sri Lanka)

Since the current extremely high growth rates of the world's population are decisively determined by the rate of its increase in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America (where about 70% of the world's population lives), the population explosion in these countries is turning into a global one.

The population explosion is a temporary phenomenon; As the demographic transition develops, the disrupted consistency of types and regimes of fertility and mortality is restored, the intermediate type of population reproduction is replaced by the main one, and the demographic explosion stops.

However, the pace of the demographic transition depends on general socio-economic development, and if it, as is the case in most liberated countries, proceeds relatively slowly, the intermediate type of population reproduction persists for a long time. Many developing countries are pursuing demographic policies aimed at overcoming the transitional nature of population reproduction, in particular at an accelerated decline in the birth rate.

Forecasts for the development of the global population explosion proceed from the fact that the process of demographic stabilization will everywhere end in approaching the state characteristic of a stationary population. In different regions of the world this will happen at different times (in accordance with the passage of these regions into the final phases of the demographic transition), but in most developing countries no earlier than the middle of the 21st century.

It is expected that, although some growth in the world population will continue into the 22nd century, the bulk of the upcoming growth will occur in the 1st half of the 21st century, by the middle of which there will be 10-12 billion people living on the globe. At the same time, the share of the population of individual countries and regions in the entire world population will change significantly, in particular, the share of the current economically developed countries (30% in 1970) will be reduced by approximately half, foreign Europe will move from 3rd place (after South and East Asia) to 5th , Africa from 4th to 2nd, ahead of East Asia.

2. The impact of the population explosion on international economic security

The demographic situation in the modern world is very diverse. In general, the planet is experiencing a significant increase in population, which is called the “demographic explosion.” Thus, in 1800, about 1 billion people lived on Earth; It took 130 years to double the human population from 1 to 2 billion (in 1930), and for the subsequent doubling - only 45 years (4 billion people - in 1975). The five billionth earthling appeared in 1987. At the turn of the 20th century XXI centuries The number of inhabitants of our planet has reached 6 billion.

However, the “demographic explosion” in our time does not occur in the entire world community, but primarily in the countries of Asia, Africa and partly Latin America. For example, in India, 56 thousand new residents are born every day, and, according to forecasts, by 2016 India will become the first country in the world in terms of population. Such a rapid increase in population leads to an exacerbation of social, economic, environmental and other problems (increasing number of illiterate people, people living below the poverty line, etc.). Let us note the main problems arising as a result of the population explosion and threatening international economic security.

Fresh water shortage problem

The growth in fresh water consumption by the population on the planet is estimated at 0.5-2% per year. At the beginning of the next century, total water intake is expected to be 12-24 thousand km³. Water consumption increases due to increasing prosperity, as can be seen in the following example. Water consumption by one urban resident in the southern regions of Russia is: in a house without sewerage 75, in a house with sewerage 120, with a gas water heater 210 and with all amenities 275 l/day.

For a city in central Russia, the water consumption rate according to the "Household and Drinking Consumption Standards for Settled Settlements" (SNiP-I.31-74) is: in houses without bathtubs 125-160, with bathtubs and heaters 160-230 and with centralized hot water water supply 250-350 l/day.

Fresh water losses increase with the growth of per capita consumption and are associated with the use of water for household needs. Most often this is due to imperfect technology in industrial, agricultural production and public services. Water losses from water-carrying communications in Russian cities amount to 30-50%. In cities of regional significance, water losses amount to approximately 10-15 million tons per year and double every 5 years. Large losses of fresh water occur during the development of mineral deposits and during construction drainage of urban areas.

Now there are armed conflicts due to lack of fresh water. Also, a lack of fresh water can lead to manifestations of separatism and terrorism. An example is the incident that took place on March 26, 2008 on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. About 150 residents of the Tajik district of Isfara, led by the governor and accompanied by Tajik police, broke through the border into the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan and tried to destroy a dam built several years ago with financial assistance from the World Bank. Thus, they wanted to restore the previous flow from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan of the Aksai River, which is the main source of water for Isfara. The governor criticized the Kyrgyz authorities, saying they had no right to build the dam because the area is disputed.

In 2013, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, devoted seven of its meetings to the problem of water scarcity. One result was that the rich world must save water - it's time to end the snow cannons. But developing countries also need to change their thinking. The problem of water scarcity cannot be solved by carrying out one campaign after another. Instead, it was proposed to create an intermediary network designed to maximize the value of projects by coordinating them, seeking to meet the needs of both people and industry. This problem is also being raised at the UN. The General Assembly proclaimed 2005-2015 the International Decade for Action “Water for Life”.

The problem of water shortage is also being solved in certain regions. Thus, Israel has adopted a project on the reuse of water from air conditioners. Representatives of the Water Corporation want to offer it to other cities in Israel. After all, using water from air conditioners for irrigation is really beneficial. Firstly, it is saving such a valuable resource in the country - water. Secondly, this will allow us not to raise prices for drinking water, which is becoming increasingly expensive to purchase in other countries. Thirdly, in conditions of water shortage, this will allow residents to preserve green spaces in the city.

The problem of limited food supplies

As a result of the demographic explosion, the problem of food shortages is most acute in many developing countries (according to UN statistics, these include a number of post-socialist states). In particular, Mongolia is one of the most needy countries, where per capita food consumption by energy value is less than 2000 kcal per day and continues to decline.

Global agricultural production is constrained by limited land in both developed and developing countries. This is due to the high level of urbanization, the need to preserve forests, and limited water resources. The problem of food shortages is most acute in the poorest countries, which are unable to allocate significant funds for food imports.

Reduction of agricultural land

The traditional rural landscape with its national characteristics is undoubtedly the national cultural heritage of each country. With the decline in the agricultural population, there is a threat of its loss. This problem is especially relevant for Western European countries, which have long tried to solve this problem by economically supporting their own farmers. The special relevance of agricultural protectionism is evidenced by the fact that throughout post-war history the problem of eliminating it occupies the most important place among the problems of international trade. This issue was central to the development of the Treaty of Rome, which began the European Economic Union.

Currently, practically all or almost all cultivable land is used. Plowing up new, less convenient areas can lead to higher prices for agricultural products and negative consequences for the environment, as has already happened in areas of unstable agriculture, for example, in a number of African countries. Although agricultural area is still expanding, it is doing so at a slower pace, with the growth of arable land notably lagging behind the expansion of agricultural land. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the share of agricultural land over the past 30 years has increased from 33.13 to 35.71% of all land, and the share of arable land - from 10.41 to 11.03%, that is, by a fraction of a percent . The area of ​​cultivated land during 1961-1990 increased from 1.3 billion hectares to 1.4 billion hectares. The area of ​​arable land has practically stabilized. population population explosion reproduction

According to calculations by scientists from the World Hunger Relief Program (Brown University, USA) R. Cates, R. Chen and others, the world harvest of field products in the 80-90s of the 20th century with an even distribution and without their diversion to feed livestock could be enough to provide a vegetarian diet for 6 billion people. With a diet in which almost 15% of calories come from livestock products (typical of South America), 4 billion people could be fed. A diet in which livestock products accounted for about 30% of calories consumed (mostly in developed countries) would feed only 2.6 billion people.

Solving the food problem is associated not only with increasing food production, but also with the development of strategies for the rational use of food resources, which should be based on an understanding of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of human nutritional needs.

As a result of the implementation of measures aimed at weakening protectionism in the production of agricultural goods, we can expect a strengthening of the positions in the world food market of those countries that have the most developed agriculture, focused on the needs of the external market (USA, EU, Canada, Australia, Argentina, etc. ). At the same time, agricultural producers in net food importing countries, if they fail to adapt to new conditions, will suffer significant losses due to reductions in subsidies for their production.

The problem of provision of fuel, raw materials and energy resources

Minerals are the input material of any production process, so they have an impact on the economy and can cause serious disruption. Tension in the use of mineral resources is associated with the limited nature of natural resources, the discrepancy between the placement of mineral resources and the level of development of productive forces; in addition, the mining industry as a whole creates 10% of the world's GDP.

It is necessary to strengthen the regime for saving raw materials, reduce the material intensity of production, create reserve reserves of critical types of mineral raw materials, increase the use of secondary raw materials, and pursue a policy to increase self-sufficiency. France: More than 70% of electricity is produced by nuclear power plants. During the period of the 70-80s. last century, a powerful mining industry was created in industrialized countries (Australia, Canada, South Africa, USA). Two oil production areas were discovered: the North Sea and Alaska. Developed countries have set a course to spread their influence. USA - Persian Gulf. Japan began exporting capital.

Developing countries are developing their own gas production industry and are pursuing a policy of retaining part of the income from the export of raw materials. Interstate organizations of mineral producing countries were created in order to obtain a stable income. However, only OPEC achieved significant results.

Thus, it should be stated that, according to researchers, the ever-increasing world population requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the planet’s biosphere and leads to conflicts.

Conclusion

Growth of the Earth's population in the middle of the 20th century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the demographic explosion. A demographic explosion is a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the Earth's population associated with changes in socio-economic or general environmental living conditions.

Currently, approximately 180 people are born on the planet every minute, 21 people are born every second, and 19 people die every second. Thus, the population of the Earth increases by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. The annual increase is approximately 80 million, almost all of it in developing countries. In our time, the number of people on the planet doubles in 35 years, and food production grows by 2.3% per year and doubles in 30 years.

It should be noted that the population problem is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The land can feed more people. The problem is the uneven distribution of people across the surface of the planet.

The modern demographic explosion not only occurs in a large number of countries, directly affecting a significant part of the world population, but, in fact, directly or indirectly affects the entire world community, turning a local demographic problem into one of the global problems of our time.

Bibliography

1. Vishnevsky A.G. World population explosion and its problems. - M.: Knowledge, 2010. - 244 p.

Vishnevsky A.G. Selected demographic works. In two volumes. T. I. Demographic theory and demographic history. - M.: Nauka, 2013. - 344 p.

Dolnik V.R. Are there biological mechanisms for regulating human numbers? // Nature. 2012. No. 6. - P.5.

Elizarova V.V., Dzarasova I.V. Demography and socio-economic problems. - M.: MAKS Press, 2011. - 272 p.

Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people have lived, are living and will live on Earth. - M.: Nauka, 2010. - 290 p.

Kovalev E.N. Global food problem. // World economy and international relations. 2004. No. 10 - P.26-34.

Korotaev A.V., Malkov A.S., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture. - M.: URSS, 2011. - 276 p.

Stadnitsky G.V., Rodionov A.I. Ecology. - St. Petersburg: Chemistry, 2011. - 240 p.

Population explosion- this is a sharp increase in population as a result of a stable and significant excess of the birth rate over the death rate.

Modern population explosion

Features of the modern population explosion

The modern demographic explosion not only occurs in a large number of countries, directly affecting a significant part of the world population, but, in fact, directly or indirectly affects the entire world community, turning the demographic problem into one of the global problems of our time.

The end of the population explosion

At the same time, it should be taken into account that the relative growth rate of the Earth's population reached its peak in 1963 (2.2% per year); The absolute record for annual world population growth was achieved in 1990 (87.4 million per year). Currently, the rate of global population growth, although slowly, is declining, amounting to 86.5 million per year in 2014, which indicates the end of the era of the population explosion or global demographic transition. At the same time, the threat of achieving relative overpopulation still remains in relation to individual countries, where the rate of demographic growth is still extremely high, and it is slowing down at an insufficient pace (primarily we are talking about the countries of Tropical Africa, such as Nigeria, DRC, Angola, etc.).

The decline in fertility is an integral consequence of economic progress and women's access to education. UN analysts believe that for many poor countries, the threshold level of education for women, at which the birth rate will decrease by 20% or more, is seven years of education. Women with higher levels of education start families later, are more likely to not marry at all, and increasing women's education levels increase the use of contraceptives that can prevent pregnancy.

According to estimates by the developer of a mathematical model of world population growth S.P. Kapitsa, as a result of the global demographic transition (a rapid decline in the birth rate in an industrial society), the growth rate of the planet's population will sharply decrease after 2025, and by the 2130s the Earth's population will stabilize, upon reaching 12-14 billion.

Director of the Institute of Demography of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Anatoly Vishnevsky, believes that the optimal way to maintain a stable standard of living for the entire population in the future, in the face of growing anthropogenic pressure on the environment and the future depletion of non-renewable resources, is a gradual return to the size of the planet’s population, which was in mid-20th century (about 2.5 billion): “This means that for some, quite a long time, all of humanity must move to a birth rate that will be below the level of simple generational replacement.”. If this does not happen, then when the Earth’s population reaches 10-11 billion, as a result of the destruction of natural life support systems, by the year 2100 humanity may be brought to the brink of survival, with a landslide a drop in population to 1-3 billion due to famine and global social -economic collapse.

Literature

• Vishnevsky A. G. World demographic explosion and its problems. M.: Knowledge, 1978.
• Vishnevsky A. G. Selected demographic works. In two volumes. T. I. Demographic theory and demographic history. M.: Nauka, 2005. ISBN 5-02-033776-5
• Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people have lived, are living and will live on Earth. M.: Nauka, 1999. ISBN 5-02-008299-6
• Ozhovan M.I., Loshchinin M.B. Heuristic paradoxes of theoretical demography S.P. Kapitsa. // European Researcher. - 2015. - No. 92 (3).
• Korotaev A. V., Malkov A. S., Khalturina D. A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture. 2nd ed. M.: URSS, 2007.
• Dolnik V.R. Are there biological mechanisms for regulating the number of people? // Nature. - 1992. - No. 6.

Notes

1. US Census Bureau, Demographic Internet Staff. Historical Estimates of World Population(undefined) . www.census.gov. Retrieved October 30, 2016.
2. Paul Ehrlich. The Population Bomb (revised) (English) // Riversity Press, USA: pdf. - 1975. - T. Ch. 1 . - P. 5.
3. World demographic explosion and anthropogenic pressure on climate (undefined) . demoscope.ru. Retrieved September 23, 2016.

Population explosion- intensive growth of the population of the planet or its regions.

The population of our planet over the past 2 millennia has grown as follows (billion people):

Beginning of the century e. - 0.08,

200 year - 0.18,

400 year - 0.2,

600 year - 0.25,

800 - 0.3,

1000 year - 0.35,

1200 - 0.4,

1400 - 0.5,

1600 - 0.8,

1800 - 1.25,

1900 - 1.5

2000 - 6 billion people.

Growth rates differ significantly between developed and developing countries. If in 1950 the population of developed countries accounted for 32.1% of the total population of the planet, and the population of developing countries - 67.9%, then according to the forecast of the demographic situation in 2025, the share of the population of developing countries will increase to 84%, and the share of the population of developed countries will fall to 15 .8%, while the total population of the planet will increase to 8.6 billion people, of which residents of developing countries in Asia will amount to 4.9 billion people, Africa - 1.6 billion and Latin America - 0.8 billion people. , and residents of developed countries - 1.3 billion people. The highest rates of population growth are predicted for Africa - 706% over 75 years, Latin America - 461% and Asia - 358%, and in developed countries - only 163%.

According to Frank Notestein's theory of demographic transition (1945), population growth has 3 main stages:

Stage 1. High birth rate and mortality rate among the population.

Stage 2. With a high birth rate, there is a sharp decrease in the mortality rate due to the development of health care and the economy, and there is a sharp increase in the population.

Stage 3. There is a decline in the birth rate in connection with the new goals and objectives of a civilized society.

If developed countries have already moved to the third stage, then developing countries are in the transition from the second to the third.

Human impact on the biosphere

In principle, humans influence the biosphere in four main directions.

1. Changes in the structure of the earth's surface (plowing of steppes, deforestation, land reclamation, creation of artificial lakes and seas, regulation of river flow into the seas, etc.).

2. Changes in the composition of the biosphere, the circulation and balance of its constituent substances (removal of fossils, creation of dumps, release of various substances into the atmosphere, hydrosphere and onto the surface of the lithosphere, changes in moisture circulation, etc.).

3. Changes in the energy, in particular, heat balance of individual regions of the globe and the entire planet as a whole.

4. Changes introduced into the composition of the entire set of living organisms through the extermination or reduction in the number of certain species, the creation of new forms of animals and plants, and their movement to new habitats.

In 1992, at the World Conference in Rio de Janeiro, politicians and scientists from more than 170 countries around the world made a number of important decisions aimed at protecting the nature of our planet, including several conventions and a program of action on the threshold of the 21st century. Unfortunately, the 5 years that have passed since this conference have not significantly changed the trend of general deterioration of the environmental situation both on the entire planet and in Russia, and we can talk about the further development of the global environmental crisis.

The figures that indicate the anthropogenic deterioration of living conditions on our planet and the destruction of natural complexes and ecosystems created during the evolution of the Earth over many millions of years, the extinction or threat of destruction of animal and plant species, and the destruction of the entire biosphere by humans are truly impressive.

Under the influence of the explosive growth of the planet's population (in the twentieth century it increased almost 4 times and will reach 6 billion people by the end of the century), the development of industrial and agricultural production, energy and transport, excessive exploitation of the planet's natural resources, in the biosphere (the sphere of life on Earth ) over the past 100 years the following most important changes have occurred (not all are listed):

a) in the atmosphere, the air shell of the Earth - a decrease in oxygen content by 12-23%, an increase in carbon dioxide (CO 2) content by 25% (the main consequence is the “greenhouse effect”, leading to warming of the planet’s climate and the prospect of possible flooding of coastal countries due to the melting of glaciers), nitrogen - by 110%, sulfur dioxide - by 75% (acidification of precipitation is observed), nitrogen oxide - by 7.1%, carbon monoxide (CO) - by 100%, ozone (O 3) - by 2000 by 20% (the consequence is an increase in morbidity and mortality of people and animals, a decrease in the bioproductivity of the soil and hydrosphere);

b) in the hydrosphere, the water shell of the Earth - irrevocable water consumption (due to irrigation and reservoirs) has disrupted the water balance by 9%, oil pollution has increased 3560 times, up to 1/5 of the World Ocean is covered with an oil film, water pollution with heavy metals poisonous to all living things increased 10-15 times;

c) in the lithosphere, the solid shell of the Earth - the cycle of solid substances involved in the cycle on land increased by 300% of the norm, the rate of destruction of soil cover in different points of the land increased by 4-6, and in some crisis areas by 12 thousand times , the area of ​​deserts over the historical period has grown 6.7 times, increasing by 10-44 hectares every minute;

d) up to 70% of the planet’s forest cover has been reduced, 20 hectares of forest are cut down every minute, another 10-15% are under threat of extinction;

e) up to 400 species of animals have been exterminated, about 1,200 more species are under threat of destruction, more than 100 million tons of fish and other inhabitants of the aquatic environment are harvested annually in the World Ocean and fresh waters (about 70% of the annual increase in their production), the biomass of animals is Since 1850, the Earth has decreased by 7-25%, the genetic diversity of living matter - by 90%, bioproductivity on land - by 20%, in the ocean - by 30%.

Under the influence of human activity, major negative changes have occurred in the main natural complexes and ecosystems of Russia. The largest marine and freshwater bodies of Russia and the CIS, the Russian North, the main industrial zones and areas of large cities were especially affected. A special place is occupied by the area of ​​the world's largest environmental disaster, Chernobyl.

Anthropogenic changes in the natural complexes of the southern seas of Russia and the CIS (Black, Caspian, Azov and Aral) and their river systems

As a result of excessive, environmentally ill-considered construction of dams for hydroelectric power stations, the creation of large artificial reservoirs, attempts to create powerful irrigation systems with the diversion of part of the watercourses of large rivers for watering the proposed areas of agricultural development, extensive pollution of rivers and seas with industrial, agricultural and domestic wastewater, rafting of forests , excessive and environmentally unjustified exploitation of fish resources, poaching, the natural complexes of these seas and their river systems were significantly disrupted, in particular:

The flow of large rivers (Volga, Don, Kuban, Terek, etc.) into the seas decreased by 10-40%, which sharply affected the water balance of the seas;

The main routes of valuable species of migratory fish, in particular sturgeon, to their traditional spawning grounds were blocked;

The feeding conditions for juveniles of most valuable fish species were disrupted;

The ratio of biomass of fish species in the southern seas has completely changed - from “sturgeon - carp” they turned into “anchovy - sprat”;

The content of toxic substances in the muscles and internal organs of fish has increased significantly, which periodically led to their mass death and created a danger when used as food;

The Sea of ​​Azov, previously extremely rich in its fish resources, became salinized and its bioproductivity halved;

In the Caspian Sea, the annual flow of the Volga decreased by 70 cubic meters. km., Urals - by 15-17 cubic meters. km (3-5 times), the influx of nutrient salts has decreased by 3-4 times, the living conditions and reproduction of many valuable fish species have significantly deteriorated.

Before the construction of the dams, Volga water traveled from Rybinsk to Volgograd in 1.5 months, and now it takes 1.5 years. 40 cubic meters are discharged into the Volga-Caspian basin annually. km. contaminated wastewater, and the pollution of the Volga with oil products is 1.7 times higher than the maximum permissible (non-life-threatening) concentration, for copper - 60-70 times, for zinc - 40 times, for mercury - 15-20 times, which leads to the accumulation of toxic substances in commercial fish and to their death.

In addition, 200 thousand tons of agricultural fertilizers are dumped into the Volga basin annually, which also leads to widespread illness and death of fish. The Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay of the Caspian Sea was blocked from the sea by an artificial dam in 1980, but this led to the destruction of its ecosystem and in 1984 the supply of water to it through special pipes was resumed. However, as photographs from space have shown, the salt dust storms generated here spread hundreds of kilometers to the south and east, and sometimes turn to the west and stretch to the Kuban;

Aral Sea: since the late 50s, the waters of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya began to be intensively used for agricultural needs (for irrigation of 6 million hectares), as a result, the complete cessation under the influence of human activity of the flow of fresh river water into the Aral Sea led to a significant a decrease in its level (by 13-15 m), salinization and shallowing, as a result of which more than 10 species of fish disappeared here, and the stocks of the rest decreased several times.

The area of ​​the sea was significantly reduced and it was divided into the Big and Small Sea-lake, the volume of sea waters was reduced by more than 3 times, the former ports were hundreds of kilometers away from it by sand (now this zone is even called the Aral-Kum desert). Soil degradation has also affected large areas of the Aral Sea region, this entire natural complex is dying due to anthropogenic reasons, and significant areas are degrading. This zone is considered to be one of the largest environmental crisis zones in the world.

Anthropogenic changes in the natural complexes of some large lakes in Russia and the CIS

Almost all large lakes in Russia and the CIS in the 20th century underwent major negative changes as a result of human activity - they are heavily polluted, their living resources have been depleted. Among such lakes one can name Ladoga, Baikal, and Balkhash.

Baikal. It took 25 million years for the Baikal ecosystem to form, but man managed to put it at risk of destruction in just about 100 years. This lake contains about 80% of the fresh water resources of the CIS and about 20% of the world's fresh water reserves. Significant damage to Baikal was caused by: the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill built here (later repurposed for furniture production), timber cutting and rafting in the Baikal region, economic activities related to the construction of the Baikal-Amur Railway, transportation of oil and petroleum products along Lake Baikal, wastewater discharge into lake, mining of sand and gravel on the shores of Lake Baikal, overexploitation of its living resources, which caused damage to its unique fauna. The fate of Lake Baikal worries not only Russians, but also all of humanity, so various projects are being developed to preserve it for future generations.

Balkhash. The waters of the main river flowing into Lake Balkhash, the Ili River, began to be intensively used in the 50s of the twentieth century to irrigate 400 thousand hectares of land, a hydroelectric power station was built on it and the Kapchagai reservoir was created, which absorbed forests and pastures.

The Ili River north of Almaty was blocked by a dam, after which a catastrophic decrease in the level and increase in the salinity of the waters of Lake Balkhash began, salt marshes formed in the river delta, salt dust carried by the wind began to clog the soils and waters far from the lake, and many plant communities died.

If the Kapchagay reservoir is not liquidated, Lake Balkhash will completely disappear.

Environmental problems of the Russian North

The Russian North still remains the basis of Russia's energy sector - 2/3 of Russian oil and gas are extracted here. The industrial expansion of the USSR in the north and Siberia had a negative impact on the health of people living here and natural complexes. Oil pollution, excessive deforestation, the construction of oil and gas pipelines blocking traditional reindeer migration routes, the death of 34 million hectares of reindeer pastures, routes for the removal of felled wood that destroy the soil, long-term nuclear weapons tests on Novaya Zemlya and much more are ruining the health of people and nature. .

Irreparable damage has been caused to the centuries-old culture, economy, social and physical health of the small peoples of the North, where 11 million square meters. km. There are 26 nationalities living there. Currently, many temporary residents of the North, who came here from various regions of the USSR to work, are leaving this environmentally unfavorable zone of Russia, and yet most of the Russian territory is the North.

The problem of forest destruction in Siberia and the Urals

In the Urals and Siberia, due to the predatory destruction of coniferous tracts, the destruction of the plant forest complex is observed (after all, trees are the “dominants” of forest communities of living organisms, each tree is a center of biodiversity of life). Due to the backwardness of technology, the forest is used irrationally: 15-20% of the wood often remains on the plots; from a cubic meter of felled forest we get 4-5 times less clean wood than developed countries. A lot of cut down timber perishes when floating down rivers and destroys river ecosystems. Forest restoration is also carried out using technically backward methods. The number of forest fires and economic losses from them is constantly increasing.

Thus, the main damage to the biosphere was caused in two main directions - on the one hand, there was intense chemical, physical, mechanical, biological and information pollution of all geospheres - the atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere, on the other - a serious depletion of many types of natural resources.

By the beginning of the 19th century, the world population approached the billion mark. Then it took two centuries to double the previous number. The next doubling occurred after 120 years; The two-billion mark was crossed in the 20s of our century. It has already taken 50 years for the planet's population to double again, because in the 70s it exceeded the four billion mark. This continuously accelerating rate of population growth, observed since the second half of the twentieth century, is called the “demographic explosion.”

However, this phenomenon is not new in the history of mankind. The demographic explosion is caused by a demographic revolution, which means a radical change in the sphere of population reproduction. As a result of such changes, a time gap arises between birth rates and deaths. The population explosion is the result of the incompleteness of the demographic revolution.

What causes the demographic revolution? The main reason is the sharp decline in mortality. Causes of mortality are usually divided into two types: exogenous and endogenous. The first type of causes of mortality includes external circumstances in relation to a person, such as an accident, war, unsanitary conditions, hunger, etc. Endogenous (internal) causes associated with natural aging and negative environmental influences.

A sharp decrease in mortality occurs due to a decrease in exogenous mortality. A demographic revolution occurs due to a sudden decrease in exogenous mortality. However, in order for the demographic revolution to lead to a population explosion, it is necessary to simultaneously maintain the procreation behavior of the population (i.e., behavior associated with the birth of children; from the Latin word procreatio - birth, bringing into being).

Using the example of Europe, we can show two types of demographic revolutions - French and English. At the beginning of the 19th century, these countries experienced a sharp decline in mortality. However, in France, along with mortality, the birth rate also decreased, and in England, the procreation behavior of the population did not change. This led to the fact that during the 19th century the population of England grew by 3.4 times, i.e. England experienced a population explosion, while for France this process passed unnoticed.

The modern demographic explosion is distinguished by the fact that there has been a sharp, unprecedented in the history of mankind, reduction in mortality among a significant part of the world's population. In other words, a global demographic revolution occurred while maintaining the same procreative behavior. We are facing a global demographic explosion, the power of which exceeds all previous ones that were local in nature.

As follows from the essence of the demographic explosion, this phenomenon is temporary, which means that sooner or later it must stop. But how soon will this happen, and what needs to be done to stop it as quickly as possible?

The historical experience of Europe and those countries where demographic revolutions have already occurred and the population has stabilized indicates that the world population must ultimately become stationary.

The population explosion will stop as soon as the gap in birth and death rates disappears. The causes of mortality - exogenous and endogenous - have already been discussed by us. But no matter how difficult it is to predict mortality, the reasons that cause changes in fertility are less studied, which in turn makes it difficult to forecast fertility.

The birth rate is usually determined by the number of girls born, using gross and net coefficients. The gross coefficient (r) is the number of girls born to each woman on average. To determine it, take the average number of children (n) per woman of childbearing age and multiply it by 0.485. Thus, the gross coefficient is determined by the formula r = 0.485 n. However, not all girls(r) will live to reach the average age at which women in a given country begin to give birth. The percentage of those who survive to this age is determined by the coefficient l. The product of r and l, i.e. the average number of girls born to one woman and who replace them is called the net population reproduction rate - r*.

Thus, when r*= 1 - the population does not change;

• · Now in Europe and Japan - r*~ 1.08;
• · North Africa - r*~ 2.29;
• · Central America - r*~ 2.71.

When forecasting population size, it is necessary to remember the so-called demographic growth potential. Suppose that in developing countries in the early 70s the net coefficient became equal to one. We know that when r* = 1 the population does not change. Therefore, the population of these countries can be expected to remain unchanged. However, as calculations show, by 2050 their numbers would increase by more than 60%. This change in population size is due to its age structure. The potential for demographic growth can be both positive and negative. In developing countries, due to high birth rates, there is a very “young” age structure and therefore the population growth potential is positive and very high.

According to UN calculations, the world population in 2075 according to the “middle” option will be 12.2 billion people, according to the “lower” - 9.5 and 15.8 - according to the “highest”. demographic russia population

The share of the population of more developed regions will decrease by almost 2.3 times. South Asia will remain the most populated region of the world. But Africa will take second place, significantly displacing East Asia, which is home to the most populous country in the modern world - China.

Another equally important problem associated with stopping the demographic explosion is the aging of the population. The fact is that throughout the history of mankind up to the present, the birth rate has always been quite high, and therefore the age composition of the population has always been “young”. However, by the end of this century, the proportion of older people in Europe will exceed 13%. And although the same figure for developing countries will hardly reach 5%, nevertheless, the process of population aging is inevitable for them too.

Aging slows the flow of labor and simultaneously increases the burden on the social security system. According to the French demographer J. Bougois-Pich, average life expectancy (with the complete elimination of exogenous mortality) can reach 77-78 years. UN demographers consider the age of 74.8 years as the limit for the foreseeable future.

A demographic explosion is a process when a particular territory experiences a very high rate of population growth. The problem of overpopulation of the Earth has been discussed for many centuries, but effective solutions have not yet been invented. Biologists believe that in their behavior regarding reproduction, a person acts in the same way as the rest of the inhabitants of the planet, about whom it is known that under favorable conditions they increase their numbers exponentially. These processes stop when further expansion of numbers is impossible or unprofitable for the species.

The settlement of the Earth proceeded at an uneven pace

The population explosion in the world has happened globally more than once. For example, the first one arose during the Pleistocene period, when people learned to hunt large animals and obtain sufficient amounts of protein. This entailed the spread of hunters over large territories and the appearance of more offspring for them to feed. The second time the world's population increased sharply was about ten thousand years ago, when humanity began to engage in agriculture. The third period is associated with the onset of a technological revolution, which has made it possible in the last century to increase harvests by seven times and the area of ​​cultivated agricultural land by two to three times compared to previous periods.

Five billion in a hundred years

The above transformations allowed the planet's population to increase from 10 million people. approximately in the 7th-8th millennium BC to 200 million by the beginning of the era, to half a billion by the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (circa 1650s), to two billion by the beginning of the twentieth century and more than seven billion by the present time. This is a demographic explosion on a planetary scale, since it took humanity a quarter of a millennium (1650-1900) to grow by one and a half billion, and only a hundred years to grow by five billion.

Humanity grows due to non-renewable resources

The main reasons for the population explosion, as follows from the above data, are associated with an increase in the amount of food. However, it has become difficult to maintain high rates of increase in food production. In this regard, today about 0.5 billion people on the planet have an abundance of nutrients, while two billion are hungry or poorly nourished. Statistics have shown that about 20 million people die from hunger every year on Earth. And such a picture can arise everywhere when the non-renewable reserves of oil, coal, gas, and mineral resources accumulated by the biosphere over billions of years run out.

Then nature, as a self-regulating system, will return the human population to life only through renewable sources (for example, solar energy), which can provide the existence of only half a billion people. This is due to the fact that full use of solar energy makes it possible to use only about one percent of the biosphere. A person now has energy consumption ten times greater.

The main ways to resolve the demographic collapse

The problem with the population explosion is that it often causes a demographic collapse, effective ways to resolve which have not yet been developed. Although there are four possible solutions to the problem of “excess population”. The first, which is partly being realized today, is that the problem of hunger is not being solved at all. It is assumed that if mortality from hunger increases by an order of magnitude, then population growth will stop altogether (if 0.2 billion people die per year).

Statistics from the World Food Organization showed that at the beginning of the twenty-first century, the global agricultural industry produced 17% more calories per person than in 1970. This made it possible to provide every inhabitant of the Earth with food in abundance or even some excess. The problem with a demographic explosion on a planetary scale is that rich states and international structures are transferring less and less aid to poor countries. Thus, in the 80s of the twentieth century, about 9 billion dollars were transferred for such purposes, while in 2005 - about 4.6 billion dollars. That is, from where they overeat, there is no redistribution in favor of the hungry.

Almost all people can be destroyed extremely quickly

The second way is the way of reducing the number of non-biological plans, when one of the nuclear powers tries to seize non-renewable energy sources from another nuclear power and receives a retaliatory strike. In this case, the population explosion of the last century can be reduced to nothing in a few hours to an arbitrarily small number of people. The leaders of countries with nuclear potential understand the harmful consequences of this option, so they try to replace direct war with organizing unrest and civil wars on foreign territories, etc., often for the subsequent seizure of resources through the use of non-nuclear military potential.

The demographic explosion, the concept of which was given above, can also be neutralized using political methods - introducing a ban on increased birth rates. But from a biological point of view, it is considered ineffective, since it causes negative reactions and protests from people.

Natural mechanisms of population regulation

Demographers and biologists point to another way of population regulation, which is implemented by nature itself. It lies in the fact that as a population grows and actively consumes certain resources, the habitat deteriorates. In an increased mass of individuals that live more crowded, diseases spread faster. And such mechanisms act on humans on a smaller scale. For example, the plague in Europe in the 14th century reduced the population by half in two years. Biologists also note that population decline is significantly influenced by urbanization, since a person, finding himself in a crowded living environment, changes his priorities and does not want to give birth to large offspring.

City life reduces birth rates

It has been established that highly fertile village youth in the second generation in the city lose this property, giving a population increase of 0.7 daughters per mother. Therefore, a population explosion is typical for countries with a predominantly rural population and a traditional way of life, often without contraception and the practice of abortion. Here, numerous offspring are needed in order to cultivate the amount of land sufficient to feed the family. For example, in Ethiopia, which has a birth rate of about 6 children per woman (and a high death rate from famine), about 16 percent of people live in cities.

Megacities are “black holes” where population growth “disappears”

In China, with the birth rate limited to 2 children per woman, only about 40% are city dwellers. In Russia, with a birth rate of just over one child per woman, about a quarter of the population lives in rural areas. Fertility rates are even lower in Japan, where more than 80 percent of Japanese live in cities. Therefore, we can say that such reasons for the demographic explosion as an improvement in the quality of life and a more nutritious diet in large cities are offset by the cramped “habitats”, lack of living space, frantic pace of life, quasi-communication and meaningless pastime, bad habits and poor ecology, which do not contribute to further population growth. This can be seen in the example of Asia, where the actively growing population is quickly “absorbed” by large cities.

Fashion for four children in post-Depression America

The causes of a local population explosion may be associated with specific historical events in a particular country. For example, in the United States there was an increase in the birth rate from the 30s to the 50s of the twentieth century. This was due to the fact that marriages and childbearing were realized, which were postponed due to the Great Depression, marked by unemployment and hunger, as well as the good economic situation of the United States during the Second World War, when this state made many deliveries of weapons to other countries, without having military operations on its own territory. During those years, American families with four children became the norm, as in the late nineteenth century. Another surge in “maternity” activity was recorded after the events of September 11, 2001, when the American nation responded in this way to the threat allegedly posed by terrorist states.

By 1979, military losses of the population in the USSR were restored

A demographic explosion in Russia was observed in the period after the Great Patriotic War, when postponed marriages and childbirths were realized, and there was also a powerful compensation for the population killed in battles. The average growth rate between 1950 and 1963 was 3.3 million people annually, giving a total population growth between 1959 and 1979 (census data) of 53 million (26 percent). It is worth noting that as of 1959, the rural population was almost equal in size to the urban population, while by 1979 about 188 million people lived in cities, and only 98 million in villages.

There has been no growth for more than twenty years

Since 1991, the Russian population did not show natural growth until almost the tenths of the 21st century due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the difficult economic situation. The increase, which, of course, does not resemble a demographic explosion, was observed only after 2013, when in Russia over the year the total increase in the number of people was about 100 thousand people per year. It has been noted that a certain small part of the population, who are not satisfied with life in a metropolis, lower their level of comfort by moving to the countryside to live in better environmental conditions and at a measured pace (“downshifting”). In general, a massive demographic explosion is desirable for our country. And its consequences will not need to be eliminated for a long time, since the territory of Russia is vast and rich in natural resources. A small population with insufficient development of technical military means may not be able in the future to protect what less rich, but more aggressive neighbors on the planet can lay claim to.