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Cheap money policy. Dear money policy. The effectiveness of monetary policy in the Republic of Belarus. Abstract: The policy of expensive and cheap money The policy of cheap money is carried out

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………… 3-4

1.1. What is meant by money……………………………………4-

1.2. The main functions of money…………………………………………………………………

1.3. The politics of “expensive” and “cheap” money

2.1. Practical part

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Monetary policy occupies an important place in the life of society, aimed only at ensuring economic turnover with a sufficient and necessary money supply. In essence, we can say that monetary policy appears to be “swimming against the wind.” Its main purpose is to stimulate business activity in conditions of business activity and suppress it when the economic situation overheats. Monetary policy is designed to ensure economic growth in the economy.

Monetary policy, in essence, by changing the money supply in the country, affects the aggregate demand in the country. Therefore, it is important to trace the mechanism of influence of monetary policy on product output in the country.

However, for countries with economies in transition (to which our country belongs), regulating the economy through monetary policy takes on a special meaning. Such a policy creates the necessary conditions and prerequisites for the implementation of the strategic goal of any transition economy - a reproductive structure, an adequately formed social model.

The main topic of this work is commodity-money relations, which include consideration of the issues of “The policy of expensive and cheap money, the mechanism of its impact on the economy.”

Money is an integral element of our daily life. Money is the most important attribute of the economy. The stability of the country's economic development largely depends on how the monetary system functions. Studying the nature and basic functions of money, the process of evolution of the monetary system, the organization and development of monetary circulation, the causes, consequences and methods of combating inflation is necessary to understand the peculiarities of the functioning of the entire financial system.

In the modern economy, money is a regulator of economic activity; by increasing or decreasing its quantity in circulation, the state thereby solves the assigned tasks. Without money, the life of a modern person is unthinkable; all the aspirations of people in the economic sphere are aimed at obtaining as much of it as possible, while we receive satisfaction from using it, exchanging it for other goods, giving it away.

During the study of the problem, the following tasks were set:

1. Study what is meant by money.

2. Consider the mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the country’s economy.

Chapter 1.

1.1.What is meant by money.

Money is an equivalent of wages artificially invented by humanity, a unit for measuring commodity-money turnover. Money appeared as a replacement for barter exchange of natural products. In different countries, money has different names and different quotes. Money is issued, as a rule, in paper or metal form.

The entire history of economic development is simultaneously the history of the development of commodity production and commodity consumption, where producers and consumers communicate with each other through the exchange of one product for another. The mediator in such an exchange is money.

Money is an integral component of commodity production and develops along with it. The evolution of money and its history are an integral part of the evolution and history of commodity production, or market economy.

Money exists and operates where economic life is carried out through the movement of goods.

In the modern economy, money is a regulator of economic activity; by increasing or decreasing its quantity in circulation, the state thereby solves the assigned tasks. The life of a modern person is unthinkable without money.

1.2.Main functions of money

In a modern economy, money performs five functions:

1. Measure of value (consists in the fact that in money we express the value of all other goods);

2. Means of exchange (with the help of money we exchange one product for another, the exchange of goods carried out with the help of money is called commodity circulation);

3. A means of storage;

4. A means of payment, settlement (money performs this function when payment for goods and services is not made immediately - lending and wages);

Money as a measure of value. This function of money plays a vital role in the organization and operation of the entire social economy, since it is thanks to a single measure of measurement that we are able to quantitatively compare the relative values ​​of various goods and services. Everyone knows that in order to measure distance, weight or volume, you need to select the appropriate unit or scale - meter, kilogram or liter. They do exactly the same thing in economics: governments of different countries set their own currency or price scale. The chosen unit measures the relative value of all goods and services sold. Such a common unit greatly facilitates the quantitative comparison of goods and the establishment of equivalent relationships between them.

Money as a medium of exchange. Under money circulation refers to the process of continuous movement of money in cash and non-cash forms, serving the processes of circulation of goods and services, and capital movements. The circulation of banknotes involves their constant transfer from one legal entity or individual to another.

To more clearly imagine the advantage of money circulation over the exchange of one product for another (what is called barter), it is enough to note that for barter you need to find a buyer for your product, and that this buyer has the product you need. For example, if you have grain and want to buy vegetables, then you must find a grower who needs the grain. Consequently, the act of selling and buying here is not separated in time. They occur simultaneously, and this inevitably entails inconvenience, not to mention certain handling costs associated with the loss of time and money.

Money circulation eliminates the disadvantages of barter exchange:

1) The act of selling and buying for money can be distant from each other. You can sell your product, get money for it, and then buy the product you need for it at a time and place convenient for you.

2) Money makes it possible to make an incomparably greater choice of goods and partners in trade transactions.

3) Their most important advantage is that they act as a universal equivalent of value, and that is why they have universal purchasing power, and therefore serve as a universal means of exchange.

Money as a store of value. Money serves as a store of value because after the sale of goods and services, it gives its owner the opportunity to purchase goods in the future. In other words, money provides its owner with future purchasing power. Other things can serve as a store of value, such as jewelry, real estate, works of art, not to mention stocks and bonds. In the economic literature there is a general term for them - assets: they have a certain liquidity, i.e. ability to act as a means of payment.

Unlike other assets, money has the highest liquidity, since it serves as a measure of value and thereby retains its nominal value. Other assets have less liquidity. So, in order to use real estate as a means of payment, you must first find a buyer, incur certain costs of sale, and besides, real estate prices can vary depending on the location, time of year, and also over time. Government securities are closest to money in terms of liquidity. They can easily be sold on the financial market, and their value fluctuates very little. Shares and bonds issued by enterprises, firms and corporations have less liquidity.

World money. Foreign trade relations, international loans, and the provision of services to an external partner gave rise to the emergence of world money. They function as a universal means of payment, a universal means of purchasing and a universal materialization of social wealth.

During the period of the gold standard, the practice of final balancing of the balance of payments using gold prevailed in the world, although credit instruments of circulation were mainly used in international circulation.

In the twentieth century, the intensification of world relations expanded the introduction of credit instruments of circulation (bills, checks, etc.) into international circulation. However, the peculiarity of the use of credit instruments of circulation in international circulation is that they do not serve as a final means of payment, such as gold.

Therefore, in order to reduce fluctuations in exchange rates and streamline the functioning of the world's leading currencies (dollar, pound sterling) as world money, international agreements and currency blocks were used. Examples are the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of the International Monetary Fund, the ECU - the monetary unit of the member countries of the European Monetary System.

All five functions of money are a manifestation of the single essence of money as a universal equivalent of goods and services. They are in close relationship and unity. Logically, historically, each subsequent function presupposes a certain development of the previous ones.

Thanks to the performance of the above functions, money plays a key role in the development of production. The social role of money in the economic system is that it is a connecting link between independent commodity producers.

1.3. The politics of “expensive” and “cheap” money.

In modern conditions, the classical implementation of the policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money leads rather to negative consequences. It is obvious that, given the current structure of the Russian economy, structural problems, as well as the deterioration of the global environment, the use of purely market mechanisms is inevitably accompanied by costs, losses and new threats. The choice of one of the directions of interest rate policy is complicated by comparisons of “pro” and “contra” in its implementation - in fact, there is a choice of one of the available “bad” solutions. Improving solution options is only possible through administrative regulation (since we are talking about the distribution of public savings) and active work of the state at the micro level with business representatives.

Thus, it is necessary to search for some kind of combined option: either a tight monetary policy together with selective subsidies of interest rates, tax breaks, direct government financing; or large-scale support for the real sector, accompanied by increased foreign exchange regulation and control over the use of public funds.

The policy of dear money aims to reduce the money supply. It is usually carried out during periods of increased inflation. Credit becomes expensive and difficult to access.

The reduction in money supply is facilitated by the sale of securities by the central bank on the open market, an increase in primary requirements and the discount rate.

The cheap money policy is carried out when there is underutilization of production capacity and unemployment in the economy. The implementation of a cheap money policy is most typical during periods of recession. In this case, credit becomes cheap and easily accessible. An increase in money supply is facilitated by the purchase of securities by the central bank on the open market, a decrease in the reserve ratio, and a decrease in the discount rate. An increase in money supply causes an increase in investment and an increase in business activity, but can intensify inflationary processes.

The policy of the central bank has a direct impact on the state of finances in the country. The role of the central bank is especially great in preventing crises in the activities of commercial banks.

The quantity theory of money equation states

M*V= P*Y (1) ,

Where M is the amount of money,

V is the velocity of money circulation,

P - price level,

Y - physical volume of GNP (quantity of goods and services).

Money circulation is the circulation of money as a means of circulation and payment, as well as the movement of funds as an integral part of commodity-money, financial-credit, currency, and settlement operations.

Monetary policy has a number of features, and its implementation in reality faces a number of difficulties, which primarily include:

1. Cyclical asymmetry, that is, if the policy of “expensive money” is pursued, a point will be reached at which banks will be forced to limit the volume of loans, which means limiting the supply of money. While the “cheap money policy” can provide commercial banks with the necessary reserves, that is, the ability to provide loans, it is not able to guarantee that the latter will actually issue loans and the supply of money will increase. The population can also thwart the intentions of the Central Bank by buying bonds from the population; the population can use existing loans.

By limiting the volume and increasing interest rates on loans provided, i.e. By implementing the “dear money” policy, the central bank forces commercial banks to limit the volume of their operations, as a result of which new means of payment are created. And vice versa, by pursuing a liberal policy of “cheap money”, it allows banks to expand lending and thereby accelerate the issuance of means of payment

This cyclical asymmetry is only a serious constraint on monetary policy during times of deep depression. In normal periods, an increase in excess reserves leads to the provision of additional credit and thereby to an increase in the money supply.

2. Change in the velocity of money circulation. Thus, from the point of view of monetary circulation, total spending can be considered as the money supply multiplied by the velocity of money. In this regard, some Keynesians believe that the velocity of money tends to change in the opposite direction to the money supply, thereby eliminating changes in the latter caused by monetary policy. In other words, during inflation, when the supply of money is limited by the policy of the Central Bank, the velocity of money tends to increase. Conversely, when policy measures are taken to increase the money supply during a recession, the velocity of circulation is likely to fall.

3. The impact of investment, that is, the action of monetary policy, may be complicated and even temporarily slowed down as a result of unfavorable changes in the location of the demand curve for investment. For example, a bank tightening policy aimed at raising interest rates may have little effect on investment spending if, at the same time, demand for investment increases due to business optimism, technological progress, or expectations of higher capital prices in the future. In such an environment, to effectively reduce aggregate spending, monetary policy must raise interest rates extremely high. Conversely, a severe downturn could undermine confidence in business, thereby undoing the entire cheap money policy.

Thus, the monetary policy pursued by the central bank, as an instrument of state regulation of the economy, has its strengths and weaknesses. The latter, for example, includes the dilemma of the goals of credit policy, which arises as a result of the inability of governing institutions to stabilize both the money supply and the interest rate at the same time. The above allows us to conclude that the correct use of these levers to improve the economic situation in the country is realistic only with accurate planning and forecasting of the impact of the credit policy of the country’s main bank on domestic business activity.

Interest rate management is a relatively new tool of monetary policy. In recent history, Russian monetary authorities pursued an active interest rate policy only in 2002–2003, rapidly expanding the government borrowing market. Then, despite the increase in modern conditions, the implementation in the classical form of a policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money leads rather to negative consequences.

Savings of the population and declining inflation all ended in a systemic financial crisis. In modern conditions, the classical implementation of the policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money leads rather to negative consequences.

In this century, the monetary authorities have actually withdrawn from the implementation of interest rate policy, concentrating in the most liberal style on the fight against excess liquidity. Low interest rates and a significant amount of available financial resources were ensured by the receipt of oil revenues and the attraction of external loans with minimal restrictive actions of the state. As a result, production, income and consumption of the population grew, but imports and external debt increased faster, which worsened Russia's position in the context of the global financial crisis. Ultimately, the “safe haven” turned out to be more susceptible to the “global storm” than other “victims” of the global crisis.

Today, while apparently defending a liberal economic model, the Bank of Russia is trying to solve very contradictory problems with its interest rate policy. On the one hand, the goals of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate and reducing inflation are met by a tight monetary policy, which implies positive real interest rates and restrictive growth in the money supply. On the other hand, supporting the real sector of the national economy requires large-scale financial assistance, including the attraction of affordable loans with relatively low interest rates. At the moment, there are a significant number of enterprises (of strategic interest, systemically important ones, those carrying out modernization, those associated with imports in their production cycle, and others) that are experiencing a production shock caused by a drop in demand, rising prices for components, and the unavailability of bank credit. The result of such a “shock” was not long in coming - in January of this year, manufacturing output decreased by a quarter.

The devaluation of the ruble (since August 2008, the ruble exchange rate has decreased by 40% against the bi-currency basket) is already a fait accompli. Despite all the discussed pros and cons of the depreciation of the ruble, it has already fundamentally changed the currency of savings of the population and enterprises, caused an increase in prices in the domestic market and keeps devaluation and inflation expectations at a high level. All the efforts of the Russian monetary authorities to give the ruble the functions of a currency of payments, savings and investments, undertaken over the course of five years, were ultimately canceled out by a two-month devaluation. The possibility of a return to the previous situation will largely be determined by the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia, the implementation of which is significantly complicated by the financial crisis and the decline in the economy. The policy of “cheap” money should be accompanied by strengthening foreign exchange controls and control over the expenditure of government resources.

In the most general form, interest rate policy is divided into restrictive (implying limiting the supply of money and increasing the cost of financial resources) and expansionary (aimed at expanding the money supply and implying low interest rates). Conventionally, the policy of “cheap” or “expensive” money depends on the level of interest rates and inflation, as well as on expectations of the level of inflation in the future. There is no clear definition of these types of monetary policy. We believe that for the Russian economy, the development of which in the last twenty years has been characterized by high inflation, a conditional division into “expensive” and “cheap” money can be made on the basis of real interest rates.

The macroeconomic tasks currently facing the Russian government and the Central Bank are the following:

Overcoming the economic downturn;

Keeping inflation within acceptable limits (less than 15%);

Stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and balance of payments;

Supporting the standard of living of the population;

Limiting unemployment;

Stabilization of the banking system;

Support for a minimum level of lending to the real sector.

The listed tasks seem quite contradictory from the point of view of developing monetary and economic policy in general. Additional factors influencing the choice of certain optimal proportions are:

A) In monetary policy - the change in tools that has occurred in recent months. For several years preceding the financial crisis, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation practically did not refinance the banking system, and the Ministry of Finance placed its securities in limited quantities. Now the situation has fundamentally changed: the Bank of Russia actually determines the cost of money in the economy with its refinancing rates.

B) In economic policy - the aggravation of the “personnel crisis”. Any decision-making on the selection of enterprises and projects for financing, subsidies, issuance of guarantees, etc. is associated both with a lack of qualified personnel and with the “human factor”. As part of this problem, a search is underway for universal market mechanisms that allow for adjustments to economic policies and the behavior of business entities.

Therefore, purely market mechanisms are inevitably accompanied by costs, losses and new threats. That is why choosing one of the directions of interest rate policy is actually choosing one of the “bad” decisions.

The policy of “expensive” money

Restrictive (aimed at limiting the expansion of money supply) policy of “expensive” money implies a high level of interest rates and is traditionally considered as a means of suppressing inflation.

Today, the choice of such a policy may be determined by the following objectives:

Supporting a stable ruble exchange rate and reducing demand for foreign currency;

Maintaining and reducing inflation. The choice of one of the directions of interest rate policy is actually a choice of one of the available “bad” solutions.

The implementation of the policy of “expensive” money includes increasing (or not decreasing) the level of interest rates on financial resources provided by the Bank of Russia and the government, as well as restrictions on the expansion of money supply. The consequences of implementing this policy will vary.

Positive consequences:

Stimulating savings in the non-financial sector (due to rising interest rates on deposits and stabilization of inflation and devaluation expectations);

Selection of enterprises by efficiency (expensive bank loans will only be able to attract enterprises that are effective today).

Negative consequences:

Reduction in lending volumes and worsening economic downturn;

Increasing costs associated with rising costs of servicing bank loans and provoking cost inflation;

Reduced stability of the banking system;

Worsening situation with “bad” debts.

Expected results this year:

Stabilization of the ruble exchange rate;

Increase in savings of the population;

Declining lending growth rates;

Maintaining the inflation level due to devaluation, inflation expectations, risk premiums (inflation will not increase, but will not decrease either);

Increase in the number of defaults on domestic and foreign loans;

Reduced demand and reduced production volumes;

Decline in investment activity;

An increase in the number of bankruptcies of enterprises and banks.

In general, the policy of “expensive” money will make it possible in 2009 to maintain the ruble exchange rate within the announced corridor and keep inflation within 20%. In addition, it will provide an opportunity to reduce the gap between loans and savings in the non-financial sector.

The real sector of the economy, in the context of the policy of “expensive” money, will experience a growing credit hunger. Only a small part of efficient enterprises today will be able to take advantage of a bank loan, which can be explained by the declining profitability of industrial production. New levels of profitability indicate a decline in the ability to survive and a deterioration in the prospects for industrial production during the period of the policy of “expensive” money, as well as the real sector of the economy in the context of the policy of “expensive” money will experience a growing credit hunger.

The policy of “expensive” money as a market selection mechanism works effectively and strategically in a stable economy, moderately dependent on external risks, with stable growth rates, in conditions of a progressive (without sudden surges) expansion of investments. It will be possible to improve the structurally unbalanced Russian industry and revive its growth during the period of “expensive” money policy only with the use of targeted government programs.

In particular, there is a deterioration in the financial and dynamic indicators of the mechanical engineering complex - the actual locomotive of industrial growth in Russia in recent years, developing on innovation and stimulating the innovative development of related industries. The obvious problems of the machine-building complex, which is the most important from the point of view of the future landscape of Russian industry, make it extremely important for the state to form and implement an active policy of supporting enterprise investments and current production activities - both with credit resources and the formation of demand.

Cheap money policy

Expansionary (aimed at increasing the overall supply of money in the economy) “cheap” money policies, relying on low interest rates, have traditionally been used to reduce (or limit the growth of) unemployment in a recession.

Today, the choice of a “cheap” money policy may be determined by the following tasks:

Stimulating domestic demand and production (including supporting employment levels);

Ensuring the stability of the banking system.

Positive consequences:

Minimizing production decline;

Employment level support;

Stability (partly temporary and visible) of the banking system.

Negative consequences:

The continued threat of further devaluation of the ruble;

High risks of accelerating inflation;

Conservation of structural imbalances.

Possible results this year:

Expanding demand will reduce the rate of decline in production;

The solution to the problem of “bad” debts will be postponed to subsequent years;

High inflation will remain;

The ruble exchange rate will continue to depreciate;

There will be a sharp reduction in government resources;

The problem of low efficiency and competitiveness of Russian enterprises and banks will remain.

Additionally, we note that the key issue in pursuing a policy of “cheap” money is its source. There is every reason to expect that government reserves will quickly deplete. Then the main sources of money supply will be emission refinancing of the banking system and money emission for the issue of government securities, which poses high risks for financial stability.

2. Practical part

Cost Analysis budget

Let us conduct a comparative analysis of the federal budget expenditures for 2009 and for the planning period of 2010 and 2011. Let's look at table No. 1.

Table No. 1 - Federal budget expenditures for 2009 and for the planning period of 2010 and 2011

Federal budget expenditures

Specific

Specific

Specific

National issues

National Defense

National Security and Law Enforcement

National economy

Department of Housing and Utilities

Environmental protection

Education

Culture, cinema and media

Healthcare and sports

Social politics

Interbudgetary transformers

Conditionally approved expenses

Secret articles

The largest share in the classification of expenses is occupied by interbudgetary transfers. In 2009, the share of expenditure of these funds is 29.38%. If we talk about the dynamics of this indicator, then next year (2010) it decreases by 0.8%. But in monetary terms it increases by 630.46 billion rubles. In the medium term, an absolute increase in interbudgetary transfers is envisaged by 2011 to 3,994.42 billion rubles, which is 1,007.31 billion rubles. more compared to 2009. In diagrams 1 and 2, you can clearly see how this indicator changes.

Diagram 1. Dynamics of interbudgetary transfers in absolute terms

Diagram 2. Dynamics of interbudgetary transfers in relative terms

This indicates the financing of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The second section, which accounts for 11.24% of the total expenses, is national issues. Over time, we see that this figure is decreasing as a percentage. It is predicted that in 2011 the amount of expenses will be 1,135.45 billion rubles, which will decrease by 7.83 billion rubles compared to what was planned in 2009. . The main subsections include budgetary allocations for the judicial system, ensuring the activities of financial, tax and customs authorities and supervisory authorities, servicing state and municipal debt and other national issues. Directly increasing the salaries of civil servants (deputies and their assistants, judges, increasing compensation for jurors and arbitration assessors, assistant judges of arbitration courts, secretaries of court sessions of arbitration courts, etc.), carrying out major repairs of administrative buildings, ensuring the activities of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation . And there are a lot of such allocations in each subsection, which indicates the growth of this indicator as a whole.

The national economy ranks third in the distribution of budget funds. It is predicted that in 2009 the amount will be 1,063.31 billion rubles, in 2011 it will increase to 1,371.49 billion rubles. which is significantly noticeable in percentage terms at 28.98%.

This section includes powers to regulate and support economic activities, including issues of environmental management, infrastructure development and natural resource potential, state support for certain sectors of the economy are mainly within the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation.

The main place in their structure is occupied by budgetary allocations for transport, reproduction of the mineral resource base, agriculture and fishing, communications and computer science, and other issues in the field of the national economy.

According to the forecast, this indicator is now in 3rd place, but in 2011 it will take second place.

In 4th place on the list of budget expenditures is national security and law enforcement, and in 5th place is national defense.

Both of these sections are increasing funding. Let's look at diagrams 3, 4 and 5. We see that such an indicator as national defense has growth dynamics; from 2009 to 2011, an increase of 94.36 billion rubles is predicted. And the forecast for the section national security and law enforcement will increase by 131.19 billion rubles. As a percentage, this figure is falling. The “national defense” indicator first falls significantly (by 1.2%), and then increases slightly (by 0.3%).

Diagram 3. Share of Federal Budget expenditures for 2009

Diagram 4. Share of Federal Budget expenditures for 2010

Diagram 5. Share of Federal Budget expenditures for 2011

The next section, the share of which is decreasing in total expenditures, is education, in 2009 it will be 4.04%. In dynamics, this figure is falling; by 2011 it will decrease by 0.67%. In monetary terms, this figure is increasing. This is due to the implementation of the national project “Education”, as well as an increase in teachers’ salaries. Allocations are being made for advanced training and retraining of employees of federal budgetary institutions, the implementation of social protection measures for orphans and children without parental care studying in these institutions, allocations will ensure the provision of secondary vocational education to students, higher education, namely an increase in budget places .

Health care and sports are one of the most important indicators, because the financing of this section depends on the ability of the country's population to participate in all areas of production. Those. with the help of labor resources, all the assigned tasks of the state, small organizations, factories, factories, etc. are carried out.

It is predicted that in 2009 the volume of expenses in this section will amount to 349.87 billion rubles, in 2010 there will be an increase of 4.55%, and in 2011 by 5.05%.

The social policy section is of no small importance, but its financing takes up a small share of the total federal budget expenditures. This indicator first increases and then decreases. It is predicted that in 2009, revenues from the federal budget will amount to 310.26 billion rubles; by 2011, this amount will decrease by 2.38 billion rubles. Financing is provided through subventions from the Compensation Fund (section “Interbudgetary transfers”).

Less funded sections of the federal budget, the share of which ranges from 0.14-1.12% of total expenditures, are occupied by: 1. culture, cinematography and the media; 2. housing and communal services; 3. environmental protection.

According to changes in budget legislation, a new item of conditionally approved expenses will appear in the structure of expenses in 2010 and 2011. That is, a certain amount of funds that is not distributed among sections and articles, which will make it possible to plan for new emerging obligations. In accordance with Article 199 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, these expenses must amount to at least 2.5% of the total federal budget expenses for the first year of the planning period and at least 5% of the total federal budget expenses for the second year of the planning period.

The last section of federal budget expenditures is classified items. If we talk about the content of this indicator, then these are items that are not disclosed, and there is no access to this information, as well as funds that are not allocated to items, in connection with amendments to the federal law "On the federal budget for 2009 and the planning period 2010 and 2011".

Conclusion

Monetary policy plays a large role in government policy. One of the most important ministries of the state is the Ministry of Finance, which conducts monetary policy in accordance with the tasks and goals of the development of the state and society. It is not surprising that the Ministry of Finance controls quite a lot of different structures, for example, such as the Central Bank. A lot of bodies (ministries, departments, committees, departments) pursue state policies in various areas, directly or indirectly related to the economy.

In a market system, the state is not a magical source of funds, but only a mechanism designed to ensure that some citizens (with higher income) pay through taxes to others (with lower income). In the new conditions, the main factors of an individual’s well-being are his initiative, the desire for personal activity, and the willingness to choose economic solutions himself.

The conclusion is to choose between two evils.

In modern conditions, the implementation of a policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money in the classical form will most likely lead to negative results. The main objectives of economic policy are to overcome the financial crisis and solve accumulated structural problems, which are complicated by the lack of effective state institutions and their employees capable of effectively managing during a crisis period (taking into account the fact that the state has free financial resources). In general, the policy of “expensive” money will make it possible in 2009 to maintain the ruble exchange rate within the announced corridor and keep inflation within 20%.

The policy of “expensive” money involves maintaining financial stability and selecting enterprises based on efficiency criteria. However, there is a significant part of enterprises (of strategic interest, systemically important, modernizing, associated with imports in their production cycle) for which a bank loan will not be available. Therefore, such a policy should be accompanied by selective subsidies of interest rates, tax breaks, and direct government funding. Meanwhile, it is the choice of areas of support.

The policy of “cheap” money includes expanding demand and increasing production activity, but provokes inflation and devaluation. The implementation of this policy assumes the growth of all sectors of the economy without selecting their efficiency (as was observed in 2006–2007), which preserves the problems and imbalances that have accumulated over the years of intensive economic growth. The policy of “cheap” money should be accompanied by strengthening foreign exchange controls and control over the expenditure of government resources. The most important threat in its implementation is the limited state reserves. After they are exhausted, the policy of “cheap” money will be implemented through money emission and external borrowing. Additionally, in order to avoid inflationary “overheating”, it is necessary to develop the market for government securities that allow sterilization. It will be possible to improve a structurally unbalanced industry with a policy of “expensive” money only through the use of targeted government programs. excess liquidity. It will be possible to improve a structurally unbalanced industry with a policy of “expensive” money only through the use of targeted government programs.

Interest rate policy will be a key component of fiscal policy and the anti-crisis package in the coming months. A key component of financial policy - because it determines the cost of money provided to the banking system and available to Russian enterprises. And if the banking system, in creating demand for public money, is largely focused on the return on investment, margin (the difference between attracted and allocated funds) and risks, then the real sector is ultimately focused on business profitability, and the population is focused on inflation. Different reference points in the value of money for institutional agents represent the most important contradiction in interest rate policy.

The progressing crisis (financial and in the real sector) leaves an extremely short period of time for choosing and clarifying the main directions of financial policy. The liberal version of the policy of high interest rates currently being implemented will soon face obvious consequences - the expansion of the use of “money surrogates” in settlements between enterprises (the spread of bills of exchange, barter, as well as an increase in non-payments). The real sector has not yet responded to this policy on a large scale by increasing “bad” debts, since expectations of financial assistance from the state are still in effect. If such assistance does not follow, and interest rates remain at the current high level, then the increase in overdue debt, as well as the lack of working capital, will intensify the already significant decline in production recorded in January 2009.

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Monetary policy is a set of activities and government in the field of money circulation and credit.

Central bank monetary policy (monetary policy)- this is a set of government measures that regulate the activities of the monetary system, the loan capital market, order in order to achieve a number of general economic goals: stabilization of prices, rates, strengthening of the monetary unit.

Monetary policy is the most important element.

All impacts are reflected in the value of the total social product and.

The main goals of the state's monetary policy:
  • Containment
  • Security
  • Tempo control
  • Mitigation of cyclical fluctuations in the economy
  • Ensuring the stability of the balance of payments

Principles of monetary and credit regulation of the economy

Monetary regulation of the economy is carried out on the basis of the principle compensation regulation, which assumes the following:

  • monetary policy restrictions, which involves limiting credit transactions by increasing the norms for reserving funds for participants in ; level up; restrictions on the growth rate in circulation compared to the commodity mass;
  • monetary policy expansion, which involves stimulating credit operations; reduction of reserve standards for subjects of the credit system; falling lending rates; acceleration of currency turnover.

Monetary Policy Instruments

The development and implementation of monetary policy is the most important function. It has the ability to influence the volume of money supply in the country, which in turn allows it to regulate the level of production and employment.

The main instruments of the central bank in implementing monetary policy:
  • Regulation of official reserve requirements
    It is a powerful means of influencing the money supply. The amount of reserves (part of the banking assets that any commercial bank is required to keep in the accounts of the central bank) largely determines its lending capabilities. Lending is possible if the bank has enough funds in excess of the reserve. Thus, increasing or decreasing reserve requirements can regulate the lending activity of banks and accordingly influence the supply of money.
  • Open Market Operations
    The main instrument for regulating the supply of money is the purchase and sale of government securities by the Central Bank. When selling and purchasing securities, the Central Bank tries to influence the volume of liquid funds of commercial banks by offering favorable interest rates. By purchasing securities on the open market, he increases the reserves of commercial banks, thereby contributing to an increase in lending and, accordingly, an increase in the money supply. The sale of securities by the Central Bank leads to the opposite consequences.
  • Regulation of the discount interest rate (discount policy)
    Traditionally, the Central Bank provides loans to commercial banks. The interest rate at which these loans are issued is called the discount rate. By changing the discount interest rate, the central bank influences banks' reserves, expanding or reducing their ability to lend to the population and enterprises.

Factors that influence demand, supply and interest rates can be collectively called “monetary policy instruments.” These include:

Interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia

The Central Bank sets minimum interest rates for transactions it carries out. The refinancing rate is the rate at which loans are provided by commercial banks, or it is the rate at which bills of exchange are rediscounted from them.

The Bank of Russia may establish one or more for various types of transactions or pursue an interest rate policy without fixing the interest rate. Bank of Russia uses interest rate policy to influence market interest rates in order to strengthen the ruble.

Bank of Russia regulates the total volume of loans issued to them in accordance with the accepted guidelines of the unified state monetary policy, using the discount rate as an instrument. Bank of Russia interest rates represent the minimum rates at which the Bank of Russia carries out its operations.

Interest rate policy of credit institutions, being part of the national monetary policy, has a significant impact on the development and its stability. are usually free to choose specific rates on loans and deposits and use certain indicators reflecting the state of the short-term money market as guidelines when implementing interest rate policy. On the other hand, the central bank, in the targeting process, sets intermediate monetary policy goals that it can influence, as well as specific tools for achieving them. This may be the refinancing rate or interest rates on central bank operations, on the basis of which the short-term interbank lending rate is formed, etc.

The problems of identifying factors influencing the interest rate policy of commercial banks have worried specialists since the formation of economic theory. However, answers to many questions have not yet been found. Modern research aimed at identifying optimal rules for implementing national monetary policy is largely based on.

Methods of direct and indirect regulation of national monetary policy are considered in theory and practice. From the point of view of interest rate policy in the narrow sense (rates on credit and deposit operations, the spread between them), the instrument of its direct regulation is establishment by the central bank of interest rates on loans and deposits of commercial banks, indirect instruments - establishing the refinancing rate and the rate for central bank operations in the money and open markets.

Interest rates on loans and deposits as instruments of direct regulation are not often used in world practice. For example, the People's Bank of China sets rates that are considered indicative for the banking system. At the same time, the bank's policy is aimed at reducing the spread, which in the first half of 2006 was 3.65%, and by the end of 2009 - 3.06%, which indicates sufficient liquidity of the Chinese banking system.

In many countries, including Russia, the refinancing rate has become more of an indicative indicator, giving the economy only an approximate benchmark for the value of the national currency in the medium term, because it remains unchanged for a long time, while real rates in the money market change every day.

Required reserve standards

According to existing legislation, commercial banks are required to transfer part of the raised funds to special accounts in.

Since January 2004 established by the Central Bank following amounts of contributions to the mandatory reserve fund Bank of Russia: for ruble accounts of legal entities and foreign currency of citizens and legal entities, as well as for ruble accounts of citizens - 3.5%.

The maximum amount of deductions, i.e., required reserve standards, is 20% and cannot change by more than 5% at a time.

This standard allows the Bank of Russia to regulate the liquidity of the banking sector.

Reserves serve as a current regulation of liquidity in the money market, on the one hand, and as a limiter on the emission of credit money, on the other.

In case of violation of required reserve standards, the Bank of Russia has the right to indisputably collect from the credit institution the amount of funds not deposited, as well as a fine in the established amount, but not more than double.

Open market operations

Open market operations, which mean the purchase and sale by the Bank of Russia of corporate securities, short-term transactions with securities with the completion of a reverse transaction later. The limit on open market operations is approved by the board of directors.

In accordance with the law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ (as amended on October 27, 2008) “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia),” the Bank of Russia has the right to buy and sell goods of commercial origin with a maturity date of not more than 6 months, buy and sell bonds, certificates of deposit and other securities with a maturity of no more than 1 year.

Refinancing

Refinancing means lending by the Bank of Russia to banks, including accounting and rediscounting of bills. The forms, procedure and conditions of refinancing are established by the Bank of Russia.

Refinancing of banks is carried out by providing intraday loans, overnight loans and holding pawnshop credit auctions for a period of up to 7 calendar days.

Currency regulation

It should be looked at from both sides. On the one hand, the Central Bank must monitor the legality of foreign exchange transactions, and on the other hand, monitor changes in the national monetary unit in relation to other currencies, avoiding significant fluctuations.

One of the methods of influencing the exchange rate is through central banks carrying out foreign exchange interventions or monetary policy.

Currency intervention is the sale or purchase by the Central Bank of foreign currency for the purpose of influencing the exchange rate and the total demand and supply of money. These obviously include transactions for the purchase and sale of precious metals on the domestic market of the Russian Federation, the procedure for which is regulated by letter of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated December 30, 1996 No. 390.

The main objectives of exchange rate policy in Russia are strengthening confidence in the national currency and replenishing gold and foreign exchange reserves. Currently, the monetary base is fully backed by gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Direct quantitative restrictions

Direct quantitative restrictions of the Bank of Russia include the establishment of limits on the refinancing of banks and the conduct of certain banking operations by credit institutions. The Bank of Russia has the right to apply direct quantitative restrictions in exceptional cases in order to implement a unified state monetary policy only after consultations with the government of the Russian Federation.

Benchmarks for growth of money supply indicators

The Bank of Russia can set growth targets for one or more indicators based on the main directions of the unified state monetary policy. In Russia, the main aggregate is the monetary aggregate.

Today, the monetary policy of central banks is guided by monetarist principles, where the Central Bank is tasked with strictly controlling the money supply, ensuring a stable, constant and long-term growth rate of the amount of money in the economy, equal to the growth rate of GDP.

Other factors influencing demand, supply and interest rates include:

  • the situation in the real sector of the economy;
  • return on investment in production;
  • the situation in other sectors of the financial market;
  • economic expectations of business entities;
  • the need of banks and other business entities for funds to maintain their liquidity.

The politics of cheap and expensive money

Depending on the economic situation in the country, the central bank pursues a policy of cheap or expensive money.

Cheap money policy

Characteristic of a situation of economic recession and high level. Its goal is to make credit money cheaper, thereby increasing aggregate spending, investment, production and employment.

To implement a cheap money policy, the central bank can reduce the interest rate on loans to commercial banks or make purchases on the open market or reduce the reserve requirement ratio, which would increase the money supply multiplier.

Dear money policy

It is carried out with the aim of reducing the pace by reducing total expenditures and limiting the money supply.

Includes the following activities:
  • Increasing the interest rate. Commercial banks begin to take less loans from the Central Bank, therefore the supply of money is reduced.
  • Sale of government securities by the central bank.
  • Increase in reserve requirements. This will reduce excess reserves of commercial banks and reduce the money supply multiplier.

All of the above monetary policy instruments related to indirect (economic) methods of influence. In addition to these general methods of monetary regulation, the central bank also uses direct (administrative) methods designed to regulate specific types of credit. For example, a direct limitation on the size of bank loans for consumer needs.

Monetary policy has pros and cons. Strengths include speed and flexibility, less dependence on political pressure than fiscal policy. Problems in the implementation of monetary policy are created by cyclical asymmetry. The effectiveness of monetary policy may also decrease as a result of counter-directional changes in the velocity of money.

Interest rate management is a relatively new tool of monetary policy. In recent history, Russian monetary authorities pursued an active interest rate policy only in 1997–1998, rapidly expanding the government borrowing market. Then, despite increased savings of the population and decreasing inflation, everything ended in a systemic financial crisis.

In modern conditions, the classical implementation of the policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money leads rather to negative consequences.

In this century, the monetary authorities have actually withdrawn from the implementation of interest rate policy, concentrating in the most liberal style on the fight against excess liquidity. Low interest rates and a significant amount of available financial resources were ensured by the receipt of oil revenues and the attraction of external loans with minimal restrictive actions of the state. As a result, production, income and consumption of the population grew, but imports and external debt increased faster, which worsened Russia's position in the context of the global financial crisis. Ultimately, the “safe haven” turned out to be more susceptible to the “global storm” than other “victims” of the global crisis.

Today, while apparently defending a liberal economic model, the Bank of Russia is trying to solve very contradictory problems with its interest rate policy. On the one hand, the goals of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate and reducing inflation are met by a tight monetary policy, which implies positive real interest rates and restrictive growth in the money supply. On the other hand, supporting the real sector of the national economy requires large-scale financial assistance, including the attraction of affordable loans with relatively low interest rates. At the moment, there are a significant number of enterprises (of strategic interest, systemically important ones, those carrying out modernization, those associated with imports in their production cycle, and others) that are experiencing a production shock caused by a drop in demand, rising prices for components, and the unavailability of bank credit. The result of such a “shock” was not long in coming - in January of this year, manufacturing output decreased by a quarter.

In modern conditions, the classical implementation of the policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money leads rather to negative consequences. It is obvious that, given the current structure of the Russian economy, structural problems, as well as the deterioration of the global environment, the use of purely market mechanisms is inevitably accompanied by costs, losses and new threats. The choice of one of the directions of interest rate policy is complicated by comparisons of “pro” and “contra” in its implementation - in fact, there is a choice of one of the available “bad” solutions. Improving solution options is only possible through administrative regulation (since we are talking about the distribution of public savings) and active work of the state at the micro level with business representatives.

Thus, it is necessary to search for some kind of combined option: either a tight monetary policy together with selective subsidies of interest rates, tax breaks, direct government financing; or large-scale support for the real sector, accompanied by increased foreign exchange regulation and control over the use of public funds.

Monetary policy

The devaluation of the ruble (since August 2008, the ruble exchange rate has decreased by 40% against the bi-currency basket) is already a fait accompli. Despite all the discussed pros and cons of the depreciation of the ruble, it has already fundamentally changed the currency of savings of the population and enterprises, caused an increase in prices in the domestic market and keeps devaluation and inflation expectations at a high level. All the efforts of the Russian monetary authorities to give the ruble the functions of a currency of payments, savings and investments, undertaken over the course of five years, were ultimately canceled out by a two-month devaluation. The possibility of returning to the previous situation will largely be determined by the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia, the implementation of which is significantly complicated by the financial crisis and the recession in the real sector of the national economy.

The policy of "cheap" money should be accompanied by strengthening foreign exchange controls and control over the expenditure of government resources.

In the most general form, interest rate policy is divided into restrictive (implying limiting the supply of money and increasing the cost of financial resources) and expansionary (aimed at expanding the money supply and implying low interest rates). Conventionally, the policy of “cheap” or “expensive” money depends on the level of interest rates and inflation, as well as on expectations of the level of inflation in the future. There is no clear definition of these types of monetary policy. We believe that for the Russian economy, the development of which in the last twenty years has been characterized by high inflation, a conditional division into “expensive” and “cheap” money can be made on the basis of real interest rates.

Thus, from the above graph it is clear that over the past twelve years, the policy of “expensive” money was carried out only in 1997 - the first half of 1998. At that time, the goals of such a policy were to reduce inflation and maintain a stable ruble exchange rate, and the instrument was the profitability of state bonds. As a result, during that period there was a decrease in inflation, stability of the ruble exchange rate, and an increase in household savings (however, the result of that policy is also known - a systemic financial crisis).

On the contrary, in the 2000s, a policy of “cheap” money was pursued. This policy was implemented through the influx of oil funds into the country and the attraction of external loans with minimal restrictive actions by the state. As a result, the policy of “cheap” money changed the growth model, making the expansion of domestic demand the main factor of economic development.

The macroeconomic tasks currently facing the Russian government and the Central Bank are the following:

  • overcoming the economic downturn;
  • keeping inflation within acceptable limits (less than 15%);
  • stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and balance of payments;
  • supporting the standard of living of the population;
  • limiting unemployment;
  • stabilization of the banking system;
  • support for a minimum level of lending to the real sector.

The listed tasks seem quite contradictory from the point of view of developing monetary and economic policy in general. Additional factors influencing the choice of certain optimal proportions are:

  • In monetary policy, there is a change in tools that has occurred in recent months. For several years preceding the financial crisis, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation practically did not refinance the banking system, and the Ministry of Finance placed its securities in limited quantities. Now the situation has fundamentally changed: the Bank of Russia actually determines the cost of money in the economy with its refinancing rates.
  • In economic policy, there is an aggravation of the “personnel crisis.” Any decision-making on the selection of enterprises and projects for financing, subsidies, issuance of guarantees, etc. is associated both with a lack of qualified personnel and with the “human factor”. As part of this problem, a search is underway for universal market mechanisms that allow for adjustments to economic policies and the behavior of business entities.

Therefore, purely market mechanisms are inevitably accompanied by costs, losses and new threats. That is why choosing one of the directions of interest rate policy is actually choosing one of the “bad” decisions.

The policy of “expensive” money

Restrictive (aimed at limiting the expansion of money supply) policy of “expensive” money implies a high level of interest rates and is traditionally considered as a means of suppressing inflation.

Today, the choice of such a policy may be determined by the following objectives:

  • maintaining a stable ruble exchange rate and reducing demand for foreign currency;
  • maintaining and reducing inflation.

The choice of one of the directions of interest rate policy is actually a choice of one of the available “bad” solutions.

The implementation of the policy of “expensive” money includes increasing (or not decreasing) the level of interest rates on financial resources provided by the Bank of Russia and the government, as well as restrictions on the expansion of money supply. The consequences of implementing this policy will vary.

Positive consequences:

  • stimulating savings in the non-financial sector (due to rising interest rates on deposits and stabilization of inflation and devaluation expectations);
  • selection of enterprises based on efficiency (only enterprises that are efficient today will be able to attract expensive bank loans).

Negative consequences:

  • reduction in lending and worsening economic downturn;
  • rising costs associated with rising costs of servicing bank loans and provoking cost inflation;
  • decrease in the stability of the banking system;
  • worsening situation with “bad” debts.

Expected results this year:

  • stabilization of the ruble exchange rate;
  • growth of household savings;
  • slowdown in lending growth;
  • maintaining the inflation level due to devaluation, inflation expectations, risk premiums (inflation will not increase, but will not decrease either);
  • an increase in the number of defaults on domestic and foreign loans;
  • reduction in demand and reduction in production volumes;
  • decline in investment activity;
  • increase in the number of bankruptcies of enterprises and banks.

In general, the policy of “expensive” money will make it possible in 2009 to maintain the ruble exchange rate within the announced corridor and keep inflation within 20%. In addition, it will provide an opportunity to reduce the gap between loans and savings in the non-financial sector.

The real sector of the economy, in the context of the policy of “expensive” money, will experience a growing credit hunger. Only a small part of efficient enterprises today will be able to take advantage of a bank loan, which can be explained by the declining profitability of industrial production. New levels of profitability indicate a decline in the ability to survive and a deterioration in the prospects for industrial production during the period of the policy of “expensive” money, as well as the absence of government programs to support them.

The real sector of the economy, in the context of the policy of “expensive” money, will experience a growing credit hunger.

The policy of “expensive” money as a market selection mechanism works effectively and strategically in a stable economy, moderately dependent on external risks, with stable growth rates, in conditions of a progressive (without sudden surges) expansion of investments. It will be possible to improve the structurally unbalanced Russian industry and revive its growth during the period of “expensive” money policy only with the use of targeted government programs.

In particular, there is a deterioration in the financial and dynamic indicators of the mechanical engineering complex - the actual locomotive of industrial growth in Russia in recent years, developing on innovation and stimulating the innovative development of related industries. The obvious problems of the machine-building complex, which is the most important from the point of view of the future landscape of Russian industry, make it extremely important for the state to form and implement an active policy of supporting enterprise investments and current production activities - both with credit resources and the formation of demand.

Cheap money policy

Expansionary (aimed at increasing the overall supply of money in the economy) “cheap” money policies, relying on low interest rates, have traditionally been used to reduce (or limit the growth of) unemployment in a recession.

Today, the choice of a “cheap” money policy may be determined by the following tasks:

  • stimulating domestic demand and production (including supporting employment levels);
  • ensuring the stability of the banking system.

Positive consequences:

  • minimizing production decline;
  • supporting employment levels;
  • stability (partly temporary and visible) of the banking system.

Negative consequences:

  • the continued threat of further devaluation of the ruble;
  • high risks of accelerating inflation;
  • conservation of structural imbalances.

Possible results this year:

  • expansion of demand will reduce the rate of decline in production;
  • the solution to the problem of “bad” debts will be postponed to subsequent years;
  • high inflation will remain;
  • the ruble will continue to depreciate;
  • there will be a sharp reduction in government resources;
  • The problem of low efficiency and competitiveness of Russian enterprises and banks will continue.

Additionally, we note that the key issue in pursuing a policy of “cheap” money is its source. There is every reason to expect that government reserves will quickly deplete. Then the main sources of money supply will be emission refinancing of the banking system and money emission for the issue of government securities, which poses high risks for financial stability.

Conclusions: choosing between two evils

In modern conditions, the implementation of a policy of “expensive” or “cheap” money in the classical form will most likely lead to negative results. The main objectives of economic policy are to overcome the financial crisis and solve accumulated structural problems, which are complicated by the lack of effective state institutions and their employees capable of effectively managing during a crisis period (taking into account the fact that the state has free financial resources).

In general, the policy of “expensive” money will make it possible in 2009 to maintain the ruble exchange rate within the announced corridor and keep inflation within 20%.

The policy of “expensive” money involves maintaining financial stability and selecting enterprises based on efficiency criteria. However, there is a significant part of enterprises (of strategic interest, systemically important, modernizing, associated with imports in their production cycle) for which a bank loan will not be available. Therefore, such a policy should be accompanied by selective subsidies of interest rates, tax breaks, and direct government funding. Meanwhile, the choice of areas to support the real sector is complicated by the state institutional and personnel crisis.

Profitability of industrial production and the real sector as a whole, in %

Note. Profitability is the ratio of the balanced financial result to turnover.

Usually there are final and intermediate goals of monetary policy. As ultimate goals formulate:

Ensuring stability of economic growth;

Fight against unemployment;

Reducing inflation and achieving price stability;

Stability of the country's balance of payments.

Intermediate targets the guidelines are:

Money supply and, above all, aggregates M 1 and M 2;

Interest rate;

Exchange rate.

The supply of money is closely related to the policy of the National Bank, which determines the value of money depending on the state of the real sector of the economy. Therefore, they talk about the policy of “expensive” and the policy of “cheap” money.

The policy of “expensive” money carried out during a period of high inflation. This means a large amount of money in the economy, exceeding the need for it. The National Bank limits the supply of money through the sale of government securities, an increase in the discount rate and norms of required reserves. As a result of these measures, the ability of commercial banks to create money is reduced, which becomes a relatively rare, less accessible resource, which causes a reduction in the demand for money and slows down inflation.

Inflation is often fought with the help of policies within the framework of dear money policies. targeting. In this case, the government sets certain goals for changing the volume of money supply in the country and strives to achieve them despite fluctuations in the economic situation. The growth rate of the money supply should be lower than the growth rate of money demand, which allows reducing inflation expectations and, as a consequence, the inflation rate.

When inflation is high in a country, the domestic currency is replaced by a more stable foreign currency. In a “dollarized” economy, purchasing power parity is usually maintained quite accurately. Therefore, during inflation, the exchange rate of the national currency decreases at approximately the same rate as domestic prices increase. If the exchange rate can be stabilized, domestic prices can also be stabilized.

The standard stabilization program is aimed at fixing the exchange rate at an acceptable level, that is, at a level that can be protected by the National Bank. But the stability of the exchange rate requires a tight fiscal policy that could free the government from seigniorage financing. If a government simultaneously tries to print money and maintain a fixed exchange rate, it will lose foreign exchange reserves and face a balance of payments crisis.

Since most domestic prices are linked to the dollar through purchasing power parity, inflation could theoretically stop overnight as soon as the exchange rate stabilizes.



Practices used in transition and developing countries currency committee. In this case, the exchange rate of the national currency to a foreign currency or a basket of currencies is fixed. Additional emission of money is carried out only if the foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank increase. This allows you to limit the growth rate of the money supply in the country and make money “more expensive”. Therefore, the main anti-inflationary measures here are:

1) public and widespread explanation through the media of the intended anti-inflationary strategy in order to gain public trust and support;

2) creation of a special stabilization fund (gold and foreign exchange reserves) through internal and external borrowing;

3) tightening of budget policy aimed at significantly reducing or eliminating the existing budget deficit;

4) the introduction of a fixed exchange rate and a number of accompanying restrictions in foreign economic and foreign exchange spheres;

5) stimulation of exports and inhibition of imports by various means;

6) lifting of imposed restrictions and liberalization of relevant areas of economic activity as inflation is suppressed and gold and foreign exchange reserves grow.

Currency reform: introduction of a new currency. The most popular method of stabilization is to “drop zeros” from a heavily depreciated currency. Old money is exchanged for new ones at a certain rate:

a) without change,

b) with changes in wage levels and prices.

The second is a purely cosmetic product. The first will lead to a significant reduction in real cash balances and a strong economic recession. In general, this is most useful in a situation of suppressed inflation, when the money supply has increased and price controls prevent prices from rising in line with the increased money supply. Currency reform then brings the supply of money in line with prices, rather than allowing them to rise sharply.

Cheap money policy carried out in cases where the National Bank believes that the increase in money supply is insufficient and restrains economic growth and generates unemployment. The goal of a cheap money policy is to make money relatively cheap and available for investment expenses. This is achieved through the purchase of government securities, reducing the required reserve ratio and the discount rate.

These measures mean an increase in the ability of commercial banks to create money and increase the desire of households to have deposits in the bank. As a result, the volume of investments increases, because they are an inverse function of the interest rate. An increase in investment means an increase in aggregate demand by the amount of the increase in investment and, through the multiplier effect, causes an additional expansion of GNP, while simultaneously promoting employment growth in the economy. This relationship is expressed graphically (Fig. 5.7):

Rice. 5.7 Effect of cheap money policy

A policy of cheap money can stimulate demand-side inflation (Fig. 5.8). This is because demand for goods and services grows faster than the economy's ability to increase production. Therefore, an increase in the amount of money in the economy leads to an excess of aggregate demand over aggregate supply in the short term, resulting in an increase in prices in the economy (from P 1 to P 2). Subsequently, the growing demand begins to be satisfied by attracting more expensive resources, which lead to increased costs for entrepreneurs and encourage them to return to the original volume of production. But to compensate for the purchase of more expensive inputs, prices for final products must rise. This phenomenon represents supply inflation (from P 2 to P 3).

Rice. 5.8 Cheap money policy and demand inflation

In some cases, it is accompanied by a drop in production volumes, i.e. stagflation. In order to prevent a reduction in production volume, the National Bank must constantly feed the economy with additional emission of money, thereby stimulating aggregate demand and maintaining production volume at a constant level greater than the potential production volume (Y f). The consequence of this approach may be hyperinflation (Fig. 5.9).

Rice. 5.9 Cheap money policy and hyperinflation

Within the framework of the classical theory, a conclusion was formulated about the influence of money in the long term on the price level, GNP and interest rate. These conclusions are called the principle Dene neutrality d: a one-time increase in the money supply contributes to a change in real output only in the short term and does not affect the equilibrium volume of GNP in the long run. This is due to the fact that the economy is at full employment, and the amount of money does not affect the emergence of new factors of production. The equilibrium price level for finished goods and attracted factors of production increases in proportion to the change in the amount of money in circulation, and the interest rate remains constant, because the volume of investments planned and introduced into the economy does not change. It is argued that the velocity of money is a constant value.

If we assume that the government pursues a long-term policy of constantly increasing the amount of money in the economy, then the volume of real production and the real interest rate remain unchanged, and the nominal interest rate and the price level increase both in the long and short term. This statement is called the principle super neutrality money.

Depending on the economic situation that develops in a given period in the country, the central bank pursues a policy of “cheap” or “expensive” money. Cheap money policy Typically typical for situations of economic recession and high unemployment. Its goal is to make credit cheaper and more easily available so as to increase aggregate spending, investment, production and employment. What measures can achieve this goal?

First, a decrease in the discount rate, which should induce commercial banks to increase loans from the central bank and thereby increase their own reserves. Secondly, the central bank purchases government securities on the open market, paying for them by increasing the reserves of commercial banks. Thirdly, the central bank reduces the reserve requirement ratio, which converts required reserves into required ones and simultaneously increases the money supply multiplier.

The policy of “expensive” money aims to limit the money supply in order to reduce aggregate spending and reduce the rate of inflation, and includes:

  • 1) an increase in the discount rate, which acts as a disincentive for commercial banks to borrow from the central bank;
  • 2) sale by the central bank of government securities on the open market;
  • 3) an increase in the rate of reserve requirements, which will reduce excess reserves and reduce the money supply multiplier.

In addition to the general methods of monetary regulation that affect the entire money market as a whole, central banks also use selective methods designed to regulate specific types of credit (for example, directly limiting the size of bank loans for consumer needs, against exchange-traded securities, setting loan limits for one borrower, etc.).

Smart banking supervision- various methods of monitoring the functioning of banks from the point of view of ensuring their security based on the collection of information, the requirement to comply with certain balance sheet ratios.

Capital Market Control- the procedure for issuing shares and bonds, including standard rules and requirements, the order of issue, the official limit of external borrowing regarding self-financing, quotas for issuing bonds, etc.

Admission to markets- regulation of the opening of new banks, authorization of operations by foreign banking institutions. Quantitative restrictions - rate ceilings, direct restrictions on lending, periodic “freezing” of interest rates. The regulation of specific types of credit in order to stimulate or inhibit the development of certain industries is called selective control.

Currency interventions- purchase and sale of currency to influence the exchange rate and, consequently, the supply and demand of the monetary unit (cash and forward transactions, swaps). The connection between currency transactions and money circulation is certainly taken into account; in particular, “sterilization” of interventions is practiced, i.e. At the same time, credit measures are being taken to neutralize the negative impact.

Public debt management. The issue of government bonds neutralizes the liquidity of banks, ties up their funds, and therefore the scale of government debt, the technique of its issue, and the form of placement are of great importance for the control of money circulation. Thus, issuing debt in excess of real needs can be used to withdraw excess liquidity, and a budget surplus and paying off part of the debt instead of refinancing is equivalent to increasing the liquidity of the banking system.

Targeting- setting targets for the growth of one or more indicators of the money supply.

Regulation of forward and futures transactions by establishing a mandatory margin, i.e. actual amount paid for the transaction.

These and other instruments of monetary policy, be it the policy of “expensive” (restrictive policy) or “cheap” (expansionist policy) money, can only be effective in conditions of close coordination with fiscal policy and legislation.

Monetary policy, like fiscal policy, has its pros and cons. Its strengths include speed and flexibility, less dependence on political pressure compared to fiscal policy, and greater political conservatism.