Presentation on the topic: “Demography of modern Russia. Demographic situation in modern Russia Modern demographic situation in the Russian Federation presentation

Slide 4

In terms of life expectancy, Russia ranks among 162 countries for which this indicator was calculated, 109th for men (61 years)

Slide 5

In terms of life expectancy, Russia ranks 74th among the 162 countries for which this indicator was calculated for women (73.9 years)

Slide 6

According to a UN Development Program report released in early October 2009, the country, whose population has declined by 6.6 million people since 1993, will lose 11 million by 2025.

According to available estimates, by 2050 the population of Russia will range from 83 to 115 million people.

In 2010, the population of the Russian Federation decreased by 820 thousand people

According to the 2002 Population Census, the population of Russia fell by 1.8 million from 1989 to 2002. Every minute 3 people are born in Russia, and 4 die.

Slide 7

Major threats to life

Slide 8

• Poor development of medicine.
• Alcoholic drinks. Every year in Russia about 40 thousand people die from alcohol poisoning
• Level of violence in society. Russia is one of the five “leaders” in terms of the number of murders per 100 thousand population.
• Road traffic accidents. About 35 thousand people die on Russian roads every year.
• Poor environmental conditions.
• About 30-40 thousand people go missing every year
• Unpopularity of a healthy lifestyle.

Major threats to life

Slide 9

Family demographic development

• Predominance of nuclear families
• The number of families with one parent is growing, and the so-called "maternal family"
• There are few families of complex composition. In 1994 - 5% of the total. Basically, these are a married couple with children, one of whom is married. Households with three or more married couples accounted for 0.1% of all families in 1994.
• There are differences between urban and rural families. In rural areas, there is a higher proportion of older married couples whose children live separately. The city has a higher proportion of families with only one parent.
• The average number of children per family is decreasing (1.3). The number of large families is decreasing. Approximately 2/3 of families have children, and the rest are either young spouses or older couples.

Slide 10

The country has entered a period of massive prevalence of small families. More and more families are focusing on one child and postponing his birth. The proportion of children born outside of a registered marriage is constantly growing. In 1994 it was 19.6%, and in 2003 it was already 29.7% of the total number of newborns.

Russia ranks first in the list of 40 industrialized countries in the world in terms of the number of abortions 206 per 100 births

Slide 11

Migration situation

• Russia is in second place (after the United States) in terms of the number of legal and illegal immigrants living in the country. According to UN experts, there are more than 13 million people in Russia. - 9% of the population.
• The damage from the labor activity of illegal immigrants is 200 billion rubles.
• In 2007, the number of legal arrivals to Russia was six times greater than the number of those leaving. According to the Federal Migration Service, immigration covered 71% of the natural population decline in the Russian Federation.
• In 2006, a law was adopted that significantly simplifies labor migration from states whose citizens enter Russia without visas.

Slide 12

• To maintain the population at the same level, it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants per year, and to maintain the size of the working-age population - at least a million per year. In order to maintain economic growth and growth in the well-being of the population, Russia must accept at least 20 million immigrants by the middle of the century.
• Attracting unskilled migrants does not contribute to increasing GDP per capita. Economic growth in the long term can only occur due to increased labor productivity - that is, due to increased qualifications, increased wages and the purchasing power of the population, and not their decrease.

Two views on attracting immigrants:

Slide 13

• A characteristic feature of modern emigration is a high intellectual level - a massive “brain drain”. In the 1990s, Russia lost a third of its intellectual potential, and these losses continue to increase. There was, in fact, a “transplant” of a number of scientific schools to the West.
• Since 1992, due to the emigration of highly qualified personnel, Russia has lost, on average, one annual budget every 5–7 years due to direct losses alone.
• Subsequently, according to the Education Commission of the Council of Europe, Russia's losses due to the emigration of scientists and specialists, taking into account lost profits, reached an average of about 50–60 billion dollars per year. The total damage is 1 trillion. dollars.

EMIGRATION

Slide 14

The estimated figure for the total emigration from Russia is approximately 4.5–5 million people (1917 – 2004)

1992–2004 2,249,619 people left Russia.

According to some forecasts, the number of emigrants who moved only to Western countries may reach by 2015. 7–11 million people

Over the past five years, a new group of potential emigrants has formed in Russia. More than 2.5 million people who purchased houses and apartments in different countries.

Slide 15

In 2010, about 95 thousand people left the country. Most of them retained their citizenship.

Slide 16

“Silent expansion” on the part of densely populated China in relation to the Far East

According to professional demographers, there are from 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese in Russia’s Far East, which is not enough for “demographic expansion.”

Slide 17

According to the 2002 census, 73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural. More than 60 percent of Russia's population is concentrated in three federal districts - Central (26%), Volga (22%) and Southern (16%).

The smallest is the Far Eastern Federal District - 4.6% of the population.

A third of Russia’s residents are concentrated in the largest “millionaire cities”: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa.

Slide 18

The census recorded an excess of the number of elderly people over the number of children:

• 18.1% of the population are children
• 61.3% - working age population
• 20.5% are of disabled age.

Slide 19

During the 20th century, Russia experienced several demographic crises:

• World War I (4.5 million) The difference between the expected and actual population of Russia by 1918 was 75 million people.
• Civil War (2.1 million)
• Famine in the USSR 1932-1933 (about 7 million)
• Period of collectivization and mass repressions (2.5 – 4 million)
• World War II (27 million)
• Post-war famine (about 2 million, birth rate decreased by 9%)
• Economic crisis of the 1990s

Slide 20

According to VTsIOM in 2008, our fellow citizens considered the causes of demographic problems in Russia

• low standard of living, high prices 20%
• small child benefits 19%
• insufficient number of child care institutions 17%,
• poor medical care 13%
• problem with housing 8%
• paid medicine, education, expensive kindergartens, treatment, baby food - 7% each

Slide 21

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF MEDICAL SERVICE AND DISEASE PREVENTION

• INCREASING INTEREST OF ENTREPRENEURS IN IMPROVING WORKING CONDITIONS
• SMART IMMIGRATION POLICY AND REDUCING EMIGRATION
• ATTRACTING THE POPULATION TO AREAS OF GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE
• CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE RF UNTIL 2015

Slide 22

HOMEWORK

§17, QUESTION 2 – orally;

Prepare for the test work in § 13 – 17.

View all slides

• - a science about the patterns of population reproduction, about the dependence of its character on socio-economic, natural conditions, migration, studying the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes and giving recommendations for their improvement.

• The demographic situation, population reproduction, its condition and dynamics are assessed:

• by birth and death rates;
• according to the difference between them - the level of natural increase;
• as well as two additional indicators - the marriage rate (divorce rate) and the state of the age-sex structure, which has an active influence on both the state of demographic processes and the value of most demographic indicators.

• To measure the birth rate in demography, a system of indicators is used.
• The simplest of them is the total fertility rate, i.e. the number of live births per calendar year per 1000 average annual population.
• The most accurate is the total fertility rate (TFR), i.e. the number of live births per 1 woman on average over a lifetime.
• Strange as it may seem, in Russia, where the mortality rate is far from prosperous, the threshold TFR value is almost no different from the “Japanese” one. This circumstance indicates an insignificant impact of the current mortality rate on the level of population reproduction.

Years

Number of births (thousands)

Years

Whole population

Years

Urban and rural population, people.

Urban population, people

Rural population, people

Proportion (%) of urban population

• In the twentieth century, the sex ratio in our country was greatly deformed. This was a consequence of the devastating cataclysms that the people had to endure, and the large losses of the male population. Immediately after the end of World War II, in 1946, women outnumbered men by 33.9%.

• The higher the birth rate, the younger the population on average, and vice versa, the greater the proportion of youth in the population, the higher, other things being equal, the birth rate.
• During the intercensal period, the age structure of the Russian population also changed. She continued to get worse, i.e. grow old The most important change in the age structure can be determined by the fact that for the first time in the history of our country, the proportion of the elderly population exceeded the proportion of children.

Region

Russian Federation

Years population censuses

Female population (per 1000 men)

Gender structure of the population

Age structure of the population

Region

Census years

Russian Federation

Population (total, thousand people)

Including those aged:

(1) - younger than able-bodied;

(2) - able to work;

(3) - older than working age

• Thus, experts assess the current situation with the population in Russia as depopulation– reduced reproduction and population decline, with negative natural growth.

• The social consequences of depopulation are associated with the prospect of a reduction in labor potential and a decline in the economic activity of the population.

• – purposeful activities of the state and other social institutions in the sphere of regulating the processes of population reproduction.
• The “Concept of Demographic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2015,” approved by the Russian Government in September 2002, states that “the goals of the demographic development of the Russian Federation are to stabilize the population and create prerequisites for subsequent demographic growth.”
• Demographic policy is designed to promote the formation of a desirable type of population reproduction for society, the preservation or change of trends in the dynamics of fertility, mortality, family composition, resettlement, internal and external migration, and qualitative characteristics of the population.

Description of the presentation by individual slides:

1 slide

Slide description:

GBPOU VO "Novousmansky Multidisciplinary Technical School". Current demographic situation in the Russian Federation. Prepared by: social studies teacher N.A. Vostrikova. 2016

2 slide

Slide description:

“...Not only science, but also politics, religion... must put the problem of population at the forefront. Its oblivion constitutes one of the errors of thinking...” D.I. Mendeleev

3 slide

Slide description:

4 slide

Slide description:

Lesson objectives: Consider the current demographic situation in Russia; Understand the problems and causes of the demographic crisis in the country; Analyze ways to solve and overcome demographic problems in the Russian Federation.

5 slide

Slide description:

DEMOGRAPHY (Greek demos - people, grafo - writing) is the science of the laws of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process.

6 slide

Slide description:

Demographic indicators are the most reliable indicators of social life. They reflect the most profound trends of ongoing changes in the social sphere of society.

7 slide

Slide description:

From what sources do we learn about population size? The population census is the main source of data concerning the population size and its distribution throughout the Russian Federation. Based on the census results, one can judge the quality of life of the population not only of the entire country, but also of individual regions.

8 slide

Slide description:

Task: Let’s compare the results of the last two population censuses in our country. Describe the main trends in population changes in the Russian Federation and formulate the problem. Thousand people Per 1000 population Born/died Born/died 2002 2010 2002 2010 Total population 145167 142857 9.7/16.2 12.6/14.4 Urban population 106429 105314 Rural population 38738 37543

Slide 9

Slide description:

Demographic crisis - low rates of birth rate, death rate and, accordingly, natural increase. A demographic crisis can be understood as both population decline and overpopulation. In the first case, this is a situation that develops in a country or region when the birth rate falls below the level of simple population replacement, as well as below the mortality rate. This is the situation currently developing in Russia. In the case of overpopulation, a demographic crisis is understood as a discrepancy between the population of a territory and its ability to provide residents with vital resources. The demographic crisis in the Russian Federation is a deep disruption of the reproduction of the Russian population, threatening its existence. The emergence of the crisis dates back to the early 1990s.

10 slide

Slide description:

Reasons: World War I (1914-1918), Civil War (1917-1922) Famine 1932-1933 period of collectivization and mass repression (1930-1953) World War II, deportations of peoples, post-war famine Economic crisis of the 1990s According to demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky, the total direct and indirect demographic losses of Russia over the 20th century as a result of wars, famines, repressions, economic and social upheavals are estimated at 140-150 million people

11 slide

Slide description:

12 slide

Slide description:

As a result, for the second time in three years, the birth rate throughout the country decreased. According to operational data from Rosstat, the number of births in 2014 was estimated at 1.947 million people (the final number was 1.943 million), in 2015 - 1.944 million. One of the key factors influencing the birth rate - registered marriages - is also declining. The number of marriages per 1,000 people reached its highest level in 2011 since 2000 and has been declining since then. Over the period 2011-2015, this indicator decreased the most in Ingushetia, the Altai Republic and Chechnya. If you look at the country as a whole, the number of marriages per 1000 people in 2015 was comparable to the value almost ten years ago - 2006.

Slide 13

Slide description:

Excerpt from the article 20 years have passed, the situation has changed, Russian citizens began to give birth more and die less, but the indicators existing today are not enough to maintain the demographic picture at the proper level, and in 20-30 years it may look completely depressing. This is the main thesis of the report prepared by the working group on family policy under the government of the Russian Federation. Deputy Director of the Department of Demographic Policy and Social Protection of the Population of the Ministry of Labor Elena Strakhova said that today we have a very good result thanks to measures to protect health and support families with children taken in 2006-2007. “But difficult years await us due to an unfavorable gender and age structure and an aging population,” said Elena Strakhova. “Based on these risks, we need to think about what to do next.”

Slide 14

Slide description:

On average, 3,616 marriages and 1,534 divorces are registered daily in the Russian Federation, leaving 1,288 children without one parent. What are the motives for divorce?

15 slide

Slide description:

16 slide

Slide description:

Depopulation is a systematic decrease in the absolute population of a country or territory as a result of narrowed population reproduction, when subsequent generations are numerically smaller than previous ones (mortality exceeds birth rate, high emigration, there are circumstances that cause large losses of people - for example, war).

Slide 17

Slide description:

The social consequences of depopulation are associated with the prospect of a reduction in labor potential, economic activity of the population, and its aging. According to the census, the working age population (men - 16-59 years old, women - 16-54 years old) was 61%, below working age - 18%, over working age - 21%.

18 slide

Slide description:

Demographic aging of the population is an increase in the proportion of elderly and old people in the total population. Currently, the share of people aged 65 years and older in the Russian population is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of a given age exceeds 7%. According to forecasts by the Russian Academy of Sciences, by 2016, elderly people over 60 years of age will already make up 20% of the total number of Russians, and children under 15 years old will make up only 17%. The aging of the population in the near future may have a negative impact on the development of the country's economy. After 2007, the workload per able-bodied citizen of the Russian Federation will begin to increase and by 2020 will return to the 1995 level, reaching a new historical maximum (the first was in 1960-1965) no earlier than 2035. A situation in which there is one dependent per worker is expected only after 2045-2050.

Slide 19

Slide description:

Results of population surveys According to VTsIOM (All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion) in 2008, our fellow citizens considered the main problems of motherhood and childhood in Russia: low standard of living, high prices (20%) small child benefits (19%) 17% complain about an insufficient number of children educational institutions 13% - poor medical care 8% consider housing a significant problem. Less often, citizens of the Russian Federation indicate unemployment and lack of attention from the state (4% each), the problem of homelessness (3%), alcoholism (1%) and bureaucracy (0.4%). 27% found it difficult to answer. In 2009 in Russia, the distribution of women by the number of children born by age 50 was as follows: the share of childless women was about 16%, the share of women who gave birth to 1 child during their life, among all women (who gave birth and those who did not give birth) was 35% who gave birth two children - 34%, 3 or more - 15%.

Demographic

situation in Russia

and problems

modern family

PLAN 1. Demographic problems. 2. Trends in the development of the modern family in the Russian Federation. 3. State demographic policy. Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditionality of this process.

• Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditionality of this process.

Demographic crisis

(depopulation )

A sharp decline in population.

Population explosion"

A sharp increase in population.

Demographic crises in Russia in the 20th century.

Population dynamics of Russia: Exercise: analyze the chart data:

• Family- a small group based on marriage or consanguinity, whose members are bound by a common life, mutual assistance, moral and legal responsibility

Modern

Traditional

Multigenerational

Reasons for divorce?

• Drunkenness and drug addiction
• Conflicts and scandals
• Interference of relatives in relationships
• Cheating husband or wife
• Sexual incompatibility

In these motives, one can identify a common feature - the spouses’ lack of proper socio-psychological preparation for marriage and fulfilling family roles

• Increased problems preventing
marriage: lack of housing, decent income; insufficient socio-psychological readiness for marriage, psychological overload of partners.
• Declining economic role of men in the family.
• Reduced effectiveness of interaction between generations in the family.

• Reducing the leading position of the family in the socialization of individuals;
• A change in the position of a woman in the family, due to the growth of her authority in society;
• Reducing the number of patriarchal families;
• Development of a partner-type family;
• The destruction of the multigenerational family, the predominance of the nuclear family;
• An increase in the number of actual, but not legally formalized family unions;
• Increase in the number of divorces, remarriages, single-parent families, and the number of abandoned children

Increase in the number of registered marriages

Increasing age of marriage

Increasing age of parents at the time of the birth of their first child

The number of women exceeds the number of men

Rising number of divorces

Declining average family size

Trends in family development in modern Russia

1. Replacement of traditional roles played by husband and wife;

2. Reducing the value of a family with children, the unity of all family generations;

3. Deviant behavior in the family is increasing - alcohol and drug abuse, family violence;

4. The family ceases to depend on social norms and sanctions (laws, morals, customs, public opinion, traditions, rituals) and increasingly depends on interpersonal relationships, mutual affection, mutual understanding;

• Married couple with children
• Registered marriage.
• There are two workers in the family.
• The average number of family members is 3.6 people.

Common deviations from the ideal family model

Incomplete family group, in which one of the members is initially missing (single mother with a child)

A broken family due to the intentional departure of one of the spouses; annulment, separation, divorce

A family experiencing a crisis caused by external events: the death of one of the spouses, imprisonment

A family is “like an empty shell” when spouses live together but maintain only minimal contact with each other

• Population policy– purposeful activities of the state in the field of regulation of population reproduction processes.

• Modernization of the social protection system for families (compensation for expenses associated with the birth and upbringing of a child in the first years of his life) - "Birth certificates";
• Fertility stimulation - "Maternal capital".
• Development and implementation of housing construction programs for youth: mortgage lending, subsidies for young families, ...

• Increasing working-age population
• Population aging
3. Infantilization of the younger generation 4. Strengthening ties between generations 5. Reducing the number of abandoned children 6. Reducing the number of traditional families