The birth rate in Russia has fallen to its lowest level in ten years. In Russia - the third year of natural increase How much is the population in the Russian Federation

2015 was the seventh year of population growth in the country, but the fall in the birth rate and a number of other qualitative indicators suggests that the situation may soon change for the worse

RBC continues to analyze the demographic results of 2015. The first material about the increase in the number of regions in which the population has decreased.

Results of the year

Following the publication of a preliminary population estimate as of January 1, 2016, Rosstat disclosed operational data on vital statistics, that is, indicators of fertility, mortality, natural increase, marriages, divorces, etc. for 2015.

At first glance, the picture is gratifying. The country's population has increased, entering its seventh year of growth. Natural increase (the excess of birth rates over deaths) remains positive for the third year in a row.

At the same time, natural growth in 2015 was recorded in 44 Russian regions, that is, in more than half of the regions, the birth rate exceeded the death rate. This is the highest result in the 2000-2010s. For comparison: in 2000 there were only 11 such regions.

There are no unexpected results on the map. Traditionally, the greatest natural growth is in the “young” republics of the North Caucasus and the regions of oil and gas workers. A bright red spot and, as a result, the highest population decline in the north-west of Russia (Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Smolensk regions).

So, 44 regions ended 2015 with natural population growth, which means the remaining 41 with natural population decline. Since all regions are different, let’s see what impact they had on the growth of the country’s population as a whole and, most importantly, whether the decline in residents of some regions “ate up” the growth of others.

The largest increase, even in absolute terms, was provided by the North Caucasus - plus 83.9 thousand people. The opposite result was observed for the regions of Central Russia, from whose data we removed Moscow and the region—minus 89.3 thousand people.

The total natural increase in the country, according to preliminary estimates from Rosstat, amounted to only 32.7 thousand people. Therefore, as in other years, migration growth was the determining factor for the change in population size - plus 219.7 thousand people, which is almost seven times more than the natural increase.

It is worth noting that this result from migration is the weakest in the 2000-2010s. The previous minimum was recorded in 2002: then the migration increase was about 250 thousand people.

Why is this year not as good as it seems?

Let's leave out migration as an indicator primarily related to the socio-economic situation in the country, and return to natural growth. Throughout the 2000-2010s, this figure grew annually (with the exception of 2005, about the statistical phenomenon of which RBC, chapter “The Mystery of 2005: Why Demography Worsened in the Year of High Oil Prices”). But in 2015, with a high degree of probability, natural growth decreased. Why can’t we talk about this with 100% certainty? In 2014, according to final data from Rosstat, the natural population increase in Russia amounted to 30.3 thousand people. The figure for 2015 was 32.7 thousand people. So he has grown up? No, because these are operational data from Rosstat. According to the same data for 2014, the increase was estimated at 33.7 thousand people, that is, according to the department’s preliminary assessment, the vital rate of the population decreased in 2015.

But the main thing here is not the absolute values of the increase, but the dynamics of this indicator. Yes, 44 regions recorded natural population growth, and yes, this is the peak value for the 2000-2010s. But there is another side.

The graph shows that for most of the 2000-2010s, natural growth in more than 70 regions improved annually (we will take out the jumps in 2005 and 2010, associated with the All-Russian Census and, as a result, clarification of data). Since 2012, the number of such regions has been decreasing and, conversely, the number of regions whose natural growth is decreasing has increased. In the language of statisticians, the dynamics of the natural population movement has worsened.

And here we move on to the components of natural increase—fertility and mortality. A decrease in growth means a deterioration in fertility, an increase in mortality, or both in a particular region.

It follows from the graph (here is another disclaimer about 2005 and 2010) that the dynamics of both fertility and mortality in most regions have worsened in the last two or three years.

And for the year 2015 alone, a mixed picture emerged: 20 regions had birth and death rates in the “red” zone, 44 had one of them, and 19 had both indicators improve.

The picture is also noteworthy in that the regions with the best demographic indicators, the “green” ones - the North Caucasus, a number of other national republics, regions of oil and gas workers - have become “red”, and in the regions of Central Russia the demographic situation seems to have improved. And this is not a lie. The regions managed to achieve some progress in the birth rate, but in the North Caucasus this figure has decreased. In 2015, of the 20 regions with the highest fertility rates, 17 had decreased fertility.

As a result, for the second time in three years, the birth rate throughout the country decreased. According to operational data from Rosstat, the number of births in 2014 was estimated at 1.947 million people (the final number was 1.943 million), in 2015 - 1.944 million.

One of the key factors influencing the birth rate—registered marriages—is also declining. The number of marriages per 1,000 people reached its highest level in 2011 since 2000 and has been declining since then. Over the period 2011-2015, this indicator decreased the most in Ingushetia, the Altai Republic and Chechnya.

If you look at the country as a whole, the number of marriages per 1000 people in 2015 was comparable to the value almost ten years ago - 2006.

The deterioration in the dynamics of natural population growth and the decline in quality indicators indicate that 2015 will most likely become the starting point for a negative demographic trend. If in the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s demographic indicators in Russia were improving, now they will begin to decline.

For example, let's look at the birth rate. According to preliminary data from the Social Insurance Fund, women aged 23-33 accounted for almost 70% of newborns in 2015. Let’s take statistics for this group from the gender and age structure of the population as of January 1, 2015 and simulate a similar sample as of January 1, 2019 (it will include women who are now 19-29 years old).

The sample size as of January 1, 2019 turns out to be significantly smaller than the current distribution of women aged 23-33 years. The reason is the weak birth rate of the 1990s. As a result, fewer women—potential mothers—will lead to a further decline in the birth rate and natural population growth.

Rosstat also expects this drop. According to the average version of their forecast (other options can be seen at the link), the natural increase for 2015 was estimated at almost 88 thousand people. In 2016, according to the forecast, the figure should have decreased to 52 thousand, and in 2018 it should have become negative. Considering that at the end of 2015 the increase was almost three times less, even this version of the forecast is optimistic: natural population decline may begin in 2016 or 2017.

The population in the Russian Federation is 142 million people.(as of April 2009). Over the past 7 years, Russia has lost 2 million people and moved from seventh to ninth place in the world among the largest countries by population.

The current demographic situation in Russia is characterized by depopulation, a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, an aging population, a decrease in average life expectancy, and problems in the employment of the population. The demographic factor influences the formation of labor potential and largely determines the development and distribution of the country's productive forces.

Population is a complex collection of people living within certain territories. It is characterized by a system of indicators such as population size and density, its composition by gender, age, nationality, language and education.

The presence of a certain number of people is one of the important conditions for the material and social life of society. Russia is a relatively sparsely populated country. Population density of the Russian Federation 8.3 people/km 2, which is 14 times lower than in the European Union, with 79% of the population living in the European part of Russia.

Population dynamics

In 2009, for the first time in 17 years, starting in 1993, the population in Russia stopped declining, stopping at 141.9 million people. In the 1990s. This process could not be stopped even by large immigration; the natural population decline was enormous (0.96 million people in 2000 alone) due to a sharp rise in mortality (by one and a half times) and a sharp drop in the birth rate (by one third). But what emerged in the first years of the 21st century. a decrease in the size of natural population decline (to 0.249 million people in 2009 due to a partial improvement in mortality and birth rates), coupled with migration growth that began to grow again, made it possible in 2009 to maintain the population size with the possible prospect of stabilization in the coming years (if judged by the average version of the forecast of the Federal State Statistics Service on the estimated population size until 2030).

As can be seen from table. 12.1, in Russia the birth rate has not so much fallen (it is already close to the pre-reform level and higher than in most European countries), but the mortality rate has increased greatly and continues to remain at a very high level. It is provoked by the high stress that the population continues to experience. According to a survey of the adult population conducted by Rosstat in the summer of 2008 (i.e., even before the start of the crisis), 72% of respondents experienced a feeling of great or very great anxiety about the uncertainty of their situation (however, in 1998 this was 95%), 45% of respondents assessed their level of material wealth below the poverty line (when, at best, there is only enough money for basic food and clothing), 44% were afraid of losing their jobs, and 27% experienced a feeling of loneliness.

Table 12.1. Demographic indicators of Russia

	2015, average forecast option (low and high forecast options in brackets)	2025, average forecast option (low and high forecast options in brackets)
Population, million people (at the end of the year)	141,7 (139,6-142,6)	140.7 (132.6-145,5)
Natural population growth/decrease. million people	0.348 (-0,688-0.211)	0,639 (-1,181-0.217)
Birth rate, per 1000 people	11,9 (10,9-12,5)
Mortality rate, per 1000 people.	14,4 (15,8-14,0)	13,9 (17,0-13,2)
Migration growth, million people
Life expectancy at birth, years	69,8 (67,9-70,3)	72,4 (68,2-75,0)
Including: men	63,4 (61,8-64,4)	66,7 (62,3-70,7)
	75,7 (74,3-76,2)	77,9 (74,4-79,3)
Average annual working age population, million people.	82,7 (82,2-83,0)	76,7 (74,5-78,2)

Severe socio-economic stress causes anomie, primarily in the most active part of the population - men (especially in the group from 30 to 50 years old). Anomie manifests itself, in particular, in neglect of one’s own and others’ lives. As a result, the working age population has a very high mortality rate from external causes and chronic diseases. Thus, more than 30% of mortality falls on external causes - these are accidental poisonings (mainly with low-quality alcohol), suicides, murders, road accidents, etc. The high mortality rate of the working-age population from cardiovascular diseases (it is 3-4 times higher than in European countries, and it accounts for 55% of the causes of death) is mainly a consequence of the fact that the proportion of those who take care of their health (through diet, refusal from bad habits, medical prevention) does not exceed 25% of those surveyed by Rosstat.

The Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025, approved at the end of 2007 by decree of the President of the Russian Federation, states that the goals of demographic policy are to stabilize the population by 2015 at the level of 142-143 million people and create conditions for its growth by 2025 up to 145 million people, as well as improving the quality of life and increasing life expectancy to 70 years by 2015, and to 75 years by 2025. In fact, the Concept orients the country towards the high version of Rosstat’s forecast on the estimated population size.

Population aging

If Russia at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population - with a high proportion of children and a low proportion of elderly people, then after 1959 the proportion of elderly people in the total population began to increase. But when compared with other countries with low birth rates, it turns out that Russia’s population is not the oldest. In 1990, Russia ranked 25th. This is not surprising, since Russia, firstly, is at the stage of the aging process, when the proportion of the middle-aged population remains virtually unchanged and aging occurs due to a decrease in the proportion of children, and secondly, due to low life expectancy, not all people live to old age.

The highest proportion of teenage children is in the Republics of the North Caucasus, in the national formations of Siberia and the Far East.

The lowest proportion of the young population is in the North-West of the country.

Urbanization of population

— growth in the share of urban population

At the moment there are 1096 cities in Russia, of which 11 are millionaire cities:

Millionaire cities Russia:

Moscow (10,500 thousand people)
St. Petersburg (4,581)
Novosibirsk (1,398)
Ekaterinburg (1,335)
Nizhny Novgorod (1,280)
Samara (1,135)
Kazan (1,130)
Omsk (1,129)
Chelyabinsk (1,093)
Rosnov-on-Don (1,049)
Ufa (1,032)

Quantity urban population in Russia is 73% .

79% of residents live in the European part of Russia.

Russians make up 80% of the country's population.

Cities that changed their names after the 90s:

St. Petersburg (Leningrad)
Nizhny Novgorod (Gorky)
Ekaterinburg (Sverdlovsk)
Samara (Kuibyshev)

Factors influencing population size

Let's look at the factors influencing population size.

The dynamics of the population of any state consists of natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Natural population movement

Natural population movement is a change in population under the influence of natural processes (fertility and mortality) that determine the change of human generations.

Fertility

The birth rate in Russia is 12 ppm, which means 12 people per thousand people (data for 2009) (in 2002, 10 people per 1000 people.)

In recent years, the situation has improved somewhat, which is due to the government's active demographic policy. However, the annual natural population decline remains quite high, and the migration growth of the population has decreased significantly.

Factors influencing fertility:

standards of living
national characteristics
woman's education level
state of the country's healthcare system

The highest birth rates are in the republics of the Volga-Vyatka, North Caucasus and Ural economic regions.

The lowest birth rate is in the Northwestern and Central economic regions.

Mortality

The mortality rate in Russia is 15 people per 1000 people. The mortality rate among Russian men and women of working age is significantly higher than the European average.

In Russia a special mortality pattern:

A huge gap in the average life expectancy of men and women (13 years). On average, men live to 61 years, women to 74 years.

Decrease in life expectancy

Changes in the structure of causes of mortality:

Digestive diseases
Cancers
Territorial factor
Poisoning, AIDS, suicide

In Russia, the region with the highest mortality rate is the Pskov region.

Mechanical movement of population

Mechanical movement of population- movement of people for permanent or temporary residence due to natural, economic, political and other reasons.

Internal movements do not change the population of a country, but change the population of individual areas. Currently, internal migration covers 80% of the total migration turnover.

Internal migration It happens:

permanent (moving to permanent residence)
seasonal (movement depending on the time of year)
pendulum (regular, usually daily, movements of the population from one locality to another to work or study and back)
And also a rotation system characteristic of the northern regions of western and eastern Siberia was formed

External migration divided into:

Immigration (entry of citizens into the country)
Emigration (departure of citizens from their country to another country for permanent or long-term residence)

Net population replacement rate (p. 47)

Years	Whole population	Urban population	Rural population

This issue of the yearbook publishes the main indicators characterizing changes in the population of the Russian Federation, as well as demographic processes in the country in 2015-2016. compared to previous years.

Nine sections of the collection present data on the size and composition of the population by age and sex, general indicators of population reproduction, information on marriages and divorces, fertility, mortality (by age and sex and by cause of death), and migration. Key demographic indicators are presented in comparison with other countries.
In preparing the collection, materials from population censuses, current estimates of population size and age-sex composition, data from federal statistical reporting, as well as data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation were used. At the beginning of each section there are brief methodological explanations about data sources and the procedure for calculating indicators.

Information is provided for the Russian Federation as a whole in long-term dynamics, for federal districts, republics, territories, regions, federal cities, autonomous regions and autonomous districts, mainly for 2015-2016.

Statistical information by constituent entities of the Russian Federation is separated into a separate electronic appendix.

Since 2014, the statistical collection “Demographic Yearbook of Russia” has been published only in electronic form in the “Publications” subsection of the “Official Statistics” section on the official Internet portal of Rosstat (http//www.gks.ru).

The collection is intended for senior management personnel, managers and employees of enterprises and organizations, scientific, business and banking circles, teaching staff, graduate students and students of economic universities, and other interested users.

Preface

1. SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF POPULATION

Methodical explanations
1.1. Population as of January 1
1.2. Components of change in total population
1.3. Components of urban population change
1.4. Components of rural population change
1.5. Population distribution by gender and age
1.6. Population distribution by gender as of January 1
1.7. Age and sex structure of the population according to the 1959 census (diagram)
1.8. Age and sex structure of the population according to the 1989 census (diagram)
1.9. Age and sex structure of the population according to the 2002 census (diagram)
1.10. Age and sex structure of the population according to the 2010 census (diagram)
1.11. Age and sex structure of the population at the beginning of 2017 (diagram)
1.12. Average age of the population as of January 1

2. GENERAL INDICATORS OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION

Methodical explanations
2.1. Births, deaths and natural population growth
2.2. Births, deaths and natural population growth by sex
2.3. Born alive by month of birth
2.4. Deaths by month of death
2.5. Children who died under 1 year of age, by month of death
2.6. Total fertility rate
2.7. Life expectancy at birth
2.8. Net population replacement rate

3. MARRIAGES AND DIVORCE

Methodical explanations
3.1. Marriages and divorces
3.2. Marriages by month of registration
3.3. Divorces by month of registration
3.4. Marriages by age of the bride and groom
3.5. Marriages by age of the groom and age of the bride in 2015-2016.

4. FERTILITY

Methodical explanations
4.1. Born alive according to mother's age
4.2. Multiple births
4.3. Age-specific fertility rates
4.4. Average age of mother at birth of children
4.5. Born alive according to mother's marital status
4.6. Number of births out of wedlock by mother's age
4.7. Termination of pregnancy (abortion)
4.8. Termination of pregnancy (abortion) by age group

5. MORTALITY

Methodical explanations
5.1. Number of deaths by gender and age
5.2. Age-specific mortality rates
5.3. Main indicators of mortality tables
5.4. Died at working age
5.5. Mortality of children under 5 years of age
5.6. Infant mortality
5.7. Perinatal mortality

6. MORTALITY BY CAUSE OF DEATH

Methodical explanations
Names of classes of causes of death adopted in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, X revision (1989)
6.1. Deaths by main classes of causes of death
6.2. Mortality rates by main classes of causes of death
6.3. Standardized mortality rates by major cause of death classes
6.4. Deaths by cause of death classes
6.5. Mortality rates by cause of death classes
6.6. Died from selected causes of death related to alcohol consumption
6.7. Mortality rates from selected causes of death associated with alcohol consumption
6.8. Died from complications of pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period
6.9. Mortality rates from complications of pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period
6.10. Mortality rates of the population of working age by main classes of causes of death
6.11. Deaths under the age of 1 year by main classes of causes of death
6.12. Infant mortality rates by main classes of causes of death
6.13. Main indicators of mortality tables by cause of death

7. MIGRATION

Methodical explanations
7.1. General results of population migration
7.2. International migration by country
7.3. Age and sex composition of arrivals
7.4. Age and sex composition of those who left
7.5. Migration population growth. Distribution by gender and age groups
7.6. Nationality of international migrants

8. DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST

Methodical explanations
8.1. Changes in population size according to forecast options
8.2. Number of men and women
8.3. Population by individual age groups
8.4. Births, deaths and natural population growth
8.5. Total fertility rate
8.6. Life expectancy at birth

9. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Methodical explanations
9.1. Average annual population for selected countries of the world
9.2. Population distribution by sex and age for individual countries of the world
9.3. General rates of fertility, mortality and natural increase for individual countries of the world
9.4. Total fertility rate for individual countries of the world
9.5. Life expectancy for selected countries of the world
9.6. Migration growth rate for selected countries of the world

One of the main indicators of any state is the demographic situation. After the collapse of the USSR, the population declined smoothly but surely, and only a few years ago began an uncertain and slow, but still growth.

According to the analytical report of the Higher School of Economics “Demographic context of raising the retirement age”, by 2034 life expectancy in retirement after raising the retirement age will reach 14 years and 23 years for men and women, respectively. But we have to live until 2034.

What is the demographic situation now, what problems are there in the country, and what are the authorities doing to solve them - below Reconomica will give detailed answers.

Demographic situation in Russia for 2018 - official data

First we give general basic data on the demographic situation in the country for 2018:

Population of Russia in January 2018, including Crimea: 146 million 880 thousand 432 citizens (9th largest in the world, after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria and Bangladesh).

Number of migrants, permanently or most of the year in the Russian Federation: about 10 million (as of 2016), of which about 4 million are in the country illegally. Of these, about 50% are located in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

Distribution by "mainland" division: About 68% of citizens live in the European part of the country, with a density of 27 people per 1 km². The rest live in the Asian part of the country, with a density of 3 people per 1 km².

Distribution by type of settlements: 74.43% live in cities.

Basic data about settlements: 15 cities in the Russian Federation have a population of more than 1 million, 170 cities have a population of more than 100 thousand.

Number of nationalities: more than 200. The main part are Russians (81%), Tatars (3.9%), Ukrainians (1.4%), Bashkirs (1.1%), Chuvash and Chechens (1 each), Armenians (0.9%).

Ratio of pensioners and working citizens: 1:2.4 (that is, for 10 pensioners there are 24 working people). According to this indicator, the Russian Federation is among the ten worst countries. For comparison: in China it is 3.5 (35 workers per 10 pensioners), in the USA - 4.4, in Uganda - 9.

Gender division(as of 2016): about 67 million 897 thousand men and about 78 million 648 thousand women.

Age division: pensioners - about 43 million (as of 2016), able-bodied - 82 million (as of 2018), children under 15 years old inclusive - about 27 million, or 18.3% of the total number of citizens (as of 2017).

Official forecast of the population of the Russian Federation until 2035

On the website of the FSGS (Federal State Statistics Service) there is a demographic forecast until 2035. The numbers in it are:

Worst option: the number will gradually decrease, by several hundred thousand per year, and in 2035 it will be 137.47 million.

Neutral option: the number will fluctuate approximately at the current level, with a gradual decline during 2020-2034. In 2035, the population will be about 146 million citizens.

Optimistic option: the number will gradually increase, mainly due to migration growth, by an average of half a million per year. In 2035, the population will be about 157 million citizens.

Tables of fertility, mortality and natural population growth of the country since 1950

First, let's give some specifics - statistics on fertility, mortality and natural increase by year:

This was the case in the 20th century under the USSR and immediately after its collapse:

And this is what the situation looks like in the 21st century in modern Russia:

Using these figures, it is easier to understand the demographic situation in Russia in different years.

Fertility and measures to increase it: demographic policy in Russia briefly

One of the main demographic problems is low birth rate.

As we see in the table above, the birth rate sank in the perestroika nineties, and then gradually recovered. However, the problem still remains: in comparison with mortality, not enough children are born, and in the last 23 years (since 1995) the natural increase was positive only in 2013-2015. And even then it was insignificant for a country with such a population.

The authorities have repeatedly stated that increasing the birth rate is one of the main tasks of the state. However, having a child, even one, is a big financial burden on the family. Even the minimum expense will be no less than 5-7 thousand rubles a month, and this is until adolescence (first for diapers and food, then for clothes and toys). And some parents support their children even longer - until they receive higher education (conditionally up to 20-23 years). It turns out that even if a family wants to have a child, they may simply not be able to afford it financially, and therefore postpone this decision.

To simplify life for families with children and stimulate the birth rate, the following financial support measures are being taken in the Russian Federation:

: a one-time benefit in the amount of 453 thousand (for 2018), which can be spent only on certain purchases (so that parents do not waste the money on their needs). The maternity capital program appeared in 2007, and is currently running until 2021. It is possible that it will be extended again, because it has already been threaded several times.

: a monthly payment that is due to a family whose total income does not reach the regional subsistence level.

: a measure of support for motherhood.

In addition, the government is working on infrastructure.

Solving the problem with kindergartens and nurseries. According to current forecasts, by 2021 all children aged 2 months to 3 years should have places without queues and other problems. For this purpose, new kindergartens are being built in all regions. In total, it is planned to create more than 700 new facilities of varying capacities.

Construction of perinatal centers. Both bearing a child, and childbirth, and the first months after them require high-quality medical care. They also plan to solve this problem by building new modern centers.

Under discussion:

Prenatal certificate: a one-time payment of 100 thousand, which is due simply for the fact that a girl becomes pregnant.

Review of the child benefit system. Now everyone receives them - both low-income people and people with normal income. It is proposed to redistribute funds, allocating them only to the poor.

Benefits for families in which women give birth before the age of 30.

It is possible that all these projects will be rejected - for now they are “raw”, and decisions on them can hardly be expected in the near future.

How many children should a family have for the demographic situation to improve?

According to approximate calculations - 2 children per family. At the current moment (mid-2018) this indicator is a little short: it is 1.7. At the same time, there is a view on this problem from the side of national politics: it is necessary that more Russians be born, since the eastern territories of the country are sparsely populated, but there is also a more global view: while Russia lacks people, the planet suffers from overpopulation!

Extinction or overpopulation?

We are accustomed to considering population growth in the Russian Federation one of the goals of domestic policy, because we are told so on TV. But let’s imagine that the birth rate has increased sharply. This will lead to the development of Siberia and the Far East, deforestation and pollution of lakes. Everyone knows that the Siberian taiga is the lungs of the planet. Russia remains one of the few reserve territories on the planet where resources for humanity are still abundant. We shouldn't forget about this.

Futurologists say that in just a couple of generations, global wars for resources caused by overpopulation could begin. So does the state need to stimulate the birth rate with all its might and provoke overpopulation in a single country right now? Do we really want our children to suffer from the government’s “one family, one child” policy, as the Chinese have suffered for a long time?

Mortality in Russia

In contrast to fertility, mortality is another important indicator of the demographic situation. The country needs to strive to reduce this number, since not all citizens live to the average life expectancy.

Main causes of early deaths:

Diseases(professional or not). Most people die from cardiovascular diseases: heart attack and stroke. In the Russian Federation, the mortality rate from them is approximately 5 times higher than in Japan and Canada. In total, more than 900 thousand people died from heart disease in 2016 (remember: in total, almost 1.9 million died this year). The second largest cause is oncology (in 2016, almost 300 thousand citizens died from cancer), followed by cirrhosis, diabetes, pneumonia, and tuberculosis.

External factors(road accidents, accidents, crimes leading to death).

Voluntary death. According to WHO, in 2013-2014 there were almost 20 suicides per 100 thousand citizens. In 2015 this figure was 17.7, in 2016 - 15.4, in 2017 - 14.2. Around the world, this figure is one of the highest among most civilized countries.

Indirect factors influencing the increase in mortality are:

Bad habits. The use of drugs, alcohol and smoking is not a direct cause of death (except perhaps in cases where a person drinks himself to death or dies from a drug overdose). But all these substances harm the body, leading to diseases, or leading to fatal crimes (road accidents, murders while intoxicated, murders by drug addicts for the sake of a dose).

Poor nutrition. In our country, eating fatty, fried, high-calorie and sweet foods is considered normal. Salads with a lot of mayonnaise, fried potatoes, fast food, buns and all kinds of sweets, instant noodles - this is the basis of the menu of millions of Russians of different genders and ages. Systematic consumption of junk food over a long period of time leads to diseases of the gastrointestinal tract, liver, heart, weakened immunity, and excess weight.

Physical inactivity(sedentary lifestyle). Leads to excess weight, weakening of the musculoskeletal system, general weakening of the body and immunity.

Polluted air in cities. In any large city the air is far from healthy. The composition and concentration of impurities is different everywhere, depending on the region and the enterprises that are located in it.

Lack of vitamins(from vegetables and fruits).

Low popularity of a healthy lifestyle. Only since the late 2000s have healthy lifestyles and sports begun to gain mass popularity. But still, not all citizens are drawn to this.

Migration and problems associated with it

Since the population size is affected only by external migration (when people move between countries, and not within the state between regions and cities), we will consider only its indicators.

Issues related to migrants are often raised not only in the media, but also on various unofficial resources - forums, social networks, blogs. They lie in the fact that the bulk of visitors are residents of poorer Asian countries and southern republics (Dagestan, Azerbaijan). For the average Russian, such visitors are usually presented in a negative light because:

occupy jobs;

reduce salaries(for some places it is easier to hire a visiting Tajik who is ready to earn 2 times less than a local Russian);

often a large number of people move into one apartment, ruining the lives of the neighbors, at least in the entrance.

This is not to mention other “little things”, such as often aggressive behavior, increased crime rates and unusual cultural customs that may be unpleasant to the indigenous population).

Another thing is Russian-speaking migrants of Slavic nationality (primarily Belarusians, Moldovans and Ukrainians). At first glance, such a visitor cannot be distinguished from a Russian; he does not always agree to work for pennies; the customs and culture are almost the same.

However, if for an ordinary citizen the nationality and behavior of newcomers are important and are not always liked, then for the state the influx of new citizens is a positive factor. The reasons are:

The number of people paying tax is increasing.

Labor shortage is decreasing. Migrants most often are people of working age who get a job in Russia. Moreover, most of the newcomers are engaged in low-skilled and low-paid work, for which it is more difficult to find local performers.

There is an influx of capital. Visitors spend money within the country, buy real estate here, and open businesses.

The nation is being “rejuvenated”. As already mentioned, the majority of visitors are young and middle-aged people.

Now some numbers:

As of early 2018, In total, there are about 10 million foreign citizens in the Russian Federation. About half of them are in the country illegally. Most often, foreigners go to Moscow and St. Petersburg, followed by Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk and Yekaterinburg.

About 80% of all migrants come from neighboring countries(both those who go to work and those who move to the Russian Federation for permanent residence). Of these, about half are Asian (mostly from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan).

In total, in 2017, almost 258 thousand foreigners received Russian citizenship. Of these, 85 thousand Ukrainians, 40 thousand Kazakhs, 29 thousand Tajiks, 25 thousand Armenians, 23 thousand Uzbeks, 15 thousand Moldovans, 10 thousand Azerbaijanis, 9 thousand Kyrgyz, 4 thousand Belarusians and 2.5 thousand Georgians. In 2016, 265 thousand people received citizenship, in 2015 - 210 thousand.

The other side of the coin is emigration (when Russians leave for other countries for permanent residence). In 2017 alone, about 390 thousand people left the Russian Federation (that is, approximately 1.5 times more than arrived. And in total, from 2013 to 2017, the outflow of the population amounted to about 2 million people.

Main problems of emigration:

Young people are the first to leave: Most of the emigrants are between the ages of 24 and 38. And these are people who could increase the birth rate, not to mention other factors.

Mostly highly qualified personnel are leaving: engineers, scientists, IT specialists, experienced entrepreneurs, doctors, builders. Both established professionals and students with in-demand specialties are leaving.

A considerable part of emigrants have income above average, and when leaving the country they withdraw their funds from the country.

Due to the outflow of wealthy and qualified citizens, the state faces the following problems:

capital flight(moreover, more money is exported than the state budget receives from visitors: in 2017 alone, about $31.3 billion was withdrawn from the Russian Federation);

personnel shortage is intensifying in important and narrow specialties (if it is easy to find a janitor from among visitors, then finding an experienced surgeon for a hospital who moved to Germany because of the high salary is a very difficult task);

demographic problem is getting worse(because young people are emigrating).

To summarize briefly: external migration for the Russian Federation is more of a problem than an advantage. Despite the large influx of visitors, the country still loses more than it receives - both in the number of emigrants and in the losses (material, intellectual) that they cause by their departure. Specialists with narrow education and experience are being replaced by low-skilled foreigners who are ready to work cheaply. In the long term, both the state and ordinary Russians will suffer from this.

Expert of the Center, Kravchenko L.I.

Taking first place in the world in terms of territory, Russia is rapidly losing its position in the demographic field. If in 1991 the Russian Federation was in 6th place in terms of population, then in 2012 it was in 10th place, by 2050 Russia will take 14th place. A reduction in the population of such a vast territory creates threats, first of all, to the territorial integrity of the state. The situation is obvious: the country is experiencing a demographic crisis. But the question remains open: what factors and reasons is it due to and does it affect the entire population or is it selective?

This study is devoted to the analysis of this problem.

The demographic problem in Russia has been discussed for a long time. Since the mid-90s, the country has experienced a population decline. In 2010, the process of population decline was stopped. According to Rosstat, in 2012 the population of Russia increased for the first time and in the first half of 2013 amounted to 143.3 million people. (Fig.1).

Fig.1. Population of Russia 1990-2013, in million hours.

The increase in population, while natural decline continued, was ensured by the migration balance. In 2013, according to Rosstat, Russia for the first time overcame the natural population decline. However, the dynamics of changes in natural increase demonstrates that the birth rate exceeds the death rate only in a few federal districts of Russia. The question remains open: at whose expense did this “demographic miracle” happen? Does it have ethnic and religious roots or is it determined by material factors (economic well-being of the regions)?

Until 2009, the only federal district with a positive birth rate balance was the North Caucasus. In 2012, the number of such federal districts increased to four: North Caucasus, Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern. The increase in the Far Eastern Federal District is due to an increase in growth in the Sakha Republic (ethnic composition: Yakuts - 49%, Russians - 30%). In the Siberian Federal District, a 44% increase was ensured by a population increase in the republics of Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Altai, and a 56% increase due to regions with a Russian population of 83-88%. In the Ural Federal District, the positive balance was achieved mainly due to the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs (the share of the Russian population is 63.5% and 59.7%, respectively). (Fig.2). IN In the first half of 2013, the dynamics continued.

Fig.2. Dynamics of natural population growth in the Federal Districts, in people. (according to Rosstat)

In the next two years, natural population growth is expected in the Volga and Southern Federal Districts. At the moment, in the Volga Federal District there is a positive balance - in five national republics (Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Mari El, Bashkortostan and Udmurtia), as well as in the Orenburg region (75% Russians) and the Perm Territory (83% Russians). In the Southern Federal District, there is a positive balance in Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region (61% Russians). The increase in the district will be achieved due to the excess of birth rates over deaths in the Krasnodar Territory (approximately 2013) and the Republic of Adygea (approximately 2014).

The most demographically disadvantaged Central Federal District will achieve positive dynamics no earlier than 2017. According to data for the first half of 2013, natural population decline has continued in all regions of the Central region, while Moscow is the leader in terms of positive balance of natural population movement.

Table 1. Forecast of natural population growth by federal districts

	Cent- ral	North West		North Caucasus- skiy	Volga- skiy	Ural	Siberian	Far Eastern
Year achieved natural annual population growth	forecast - 2017	forecast - 2015	forecast - 2014	always an increase	forecast - 2014
Subjects that will provide positive federal balance new district	Moscow, Moscow region	Republic Lika Komi, St. Petersburg, Kalinin- gradskaya and Arkhan- Gel region	Kalmykia and Astra- khan region	6 res- public	Tatarstan, Mari El, Bashkor- Tostan and Udmurtia	Khanty- -Mansiys- cue and Yamalo- Nenets auto- nominal districts	Republic of Altai, Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Zabay- Kalsky and Krasno- Yarsky region	Sakha (Yakutia)

The current state of natural population growth is characterized by a steady increase in the birth rate and a slower decrease in mortality. This is most likely explained by the transfer of increased birth rates a generation earlier (perestroika years) to the USSR.

The birth rate increase coefficient, showing how many times the birth rate has increased by district, indicates accelerated growth in the North Caucasus (1.7 times), Ural and Central federal districts. (Fig.3).

Fig.3. Ratio of the 2012 birth and death rate to the 2000 birth and death rate.

In terms of mortality growth rates, a slowdown is observed in all districts except the North Caucasus.

In absolute terms, the birth rate in the North Caucasus Federal District is significantly lower than the birth rate in other districts. However, in terms of relative indicators (birth rate and death rate per 1000 people), the North Caucasus region demonstrates the best indicators - high birth rate and low death rate. On average, the birth rate in this district is 4.1 units higher than the Russian average birth rate. , in terms of mortality is 5 units lower. The most disadvantaged region in terms of demography is the Central District - in terms of birth rates it is 1.5 times and in terms of mortality rates it is 1.7 times worse than those of the North Caucasus Federal District. (Fig.4).

Fig.4. Birth and death rates per 1000 people by federal districts

The ratio of fertility to mortality in this district exceeded 2, while in the Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern regions only in recent years it was possible to reach only 1. And although each federal district demonstrates an increase in the gap between fertility and mortality over time, the highest rate is in the North. Caucasus region. (Fig.5).

Fig.5. Birth-to-death ratio by county

In recent years, the top ten leaders in natural population growth have not changed. So, the growth in the Republic of Dagestan is ahead of this indicator in all federal districts with positive dynamics (except for the North Caucasus), and the growth in the Tyumen region and the Chechen Republic in 2012 is ahead of the positive balance in the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts.

The greatest population decline was observed in a number of regions of the Central Federal District. The absolute leader in this indicator is the Moscow region, while Moscow is among the top ten leaders in natural growth. St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region have the same dynamics.

Table 2. Leaders in population growth in 2012

Table 3. Leaders in population decline in 2012

Traditionally, population decline is observed in regions with a predominantly Russian population. This is the most important effect. Among the demographic leaders are the national republics with a low share of the Russian population, as well as the Tyumen region and Moscow, where the growth was achieved due to immigration and the high standard of living of citizens.

Based on the hypothesis that natural decline directly depends on the share of the Russian population, we will consider the dynamics of natural population movement in 20 regions with a share of the Russian population above 90% and 9 regions with a share from 1 to 31%.

Regions with the highest percentage of Russian people in their ethnic composition demonstrate decreasing natural population decline, but the prospect of achieving an excess of birth rates over deaths in the coming years is unattainable. (Fig.6).

Fig.6. Balance of natural increase in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation with the share of the Russian population over 90%, in people.

At the same time, in 9 regions with a share of the Russian population of 0.7% up to 31%, the birth rate significantly exceeds the death rate, with the leaders being the Islamic republics of the North Caucasus. (Fig.7).

Fig.7.Balance of natural increase in 9 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, people.

In 2020, 2025 and 2030, the so-called “baby boom” will affect exclusively national republics. In the Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan, the Altai Republic, Yakutia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a demographic explosion will be observed in every year.

Table 4. Regions with the highest expected birth rates


Chechen Republic	Chechen Republic	Chechen Republic
The Republic of Ingushetia	The Republic of Ingushetia	The Republic of Ingushetia
Tyva Republic	Tyva Republic	Tyva Republic
The Republic of Dagestan	The Republic of Dagestan	The Republic of Dagestan
Altai Republic	The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)	Altai Republic
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)	Altai Republic	The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Nenets Autonomous Okrug		Nenets Autonomous Okrug
	Nenets Autonomous Okrug	The Republic of Buryatia
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic	Republic of North Ossetia-Alania	Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
Republic of Kalmykia	Republic of Kalmykia	Karachay-Cherkess Republic

The worst birth rates in these years will be demonstrated by regions with a Russian population. In 2030, another Orthodox nation, the Mordovians, will also be far from the baby boom. The ten regions with the lowest birth rates in 2020-2030 mainly include the regions of the Central Federal District.

Table 5. Regions with the lowest expected birth rates


Moscow	Moscow	Saint Petersburg
Saint Petersburg	Saint Petersburg	Moscow
Moscow region	Leningrad region	Leningrad region
Tula region	Moscow region	Tula region
Murmansk region	Tula region	Smolensk region
Leningrad region	Smolensk region	Voronezh region
Yaroslavl region	Yaroslavl region	Moscow region
Ivanovo region	Murmansk region	Ryazan Oblast
Kamchatka Krai	Vladimir region	The Republic of Mordovia
Magadan Region	Ivanovo region	Tambov Region

Thus, the demographic crisis is mediated by ethnic selectivity. The decline of the Russian population continues and has already led to its reduction by more than 8 million people since 1989. Since 2002, the number of ethnic groups professing Islam has increased. The number of Uzbeks increased 2 times, 1.6 times - Tajiks, which is explained by migration flows. The size of the Russian Islamic population has increased, with high growth rates demonstrated by the peoples living in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District. Among the Orthodox peoples, the number of Armenians and Ossetians has increased. There has been a reduction in such Orthodox ethnic groups , like Russians, Udmurts, Mordovians, Chuvash, Mari. Since 2009, the population of Udmurtia began to grow due to natural growth, in the republics of Mari El and Chuvashia - since 2012, the decline in Mordovia has continued; the Russian population continues to decline due to natural population decline.

Table 6. Ethnic composition of Russia according to census data, in million people

	1989	2002	2010
Whole population	147,02	145,16	142,8565
Russians	119,87	115,87	111,0169
Tatars	5,52	5,56	5,310649
Ukrainians	4,36	2,94	1,927988
Bashkirs	1,35	1,67	1,584554
Chuvash	1,77	1,64	1,435872
Chechens		1,36	1,43136
Armenians	0,53	1,13	1,182388

Based on the 2010 census data on the share of the Russian population in the population of the subjects, we can talk about a decrease in the Russian population in 2012 by 88,000 people, while the population of other nationalities increased by 108,000 people.

The rapid decline in the share of the Russian population in the national republics creates threats to the national security of the country: the connecting role of the Russian people is lost, regions appear that do not identify themselves with Russia, and there is a severance of ties between peoples in the spatial field of Russian civilization. The demographic situation in the region is becoming an indicator of separatist sentiments. The most unstable in this regard are regions such as Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, with the share of titular peoples exceeding 90%, as well as the Republic of Tyva. These republics also have the lowest proportion of people speaking Russian. Potential sources of tension may be those regions in which the share of titular peoples exceeds 50% and due to natural growth this share increases.

Table 7. Regions with the greatest potential threat of nationalist strife with the Russian people and separatism

Subject of the federation	Share of the titular people	Share of Russians	Proportion of people who speak Russian
The Republic of Dagestan
The Republic of Ingushetia
Chechen Republic
Tyva Republic
Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria
Chuvash Republic
Republic of North Ossetia
Republic of Kalmykia
Republic of Tatarstan
Republic of Karachay-Cherkess

Let us introduce for further analysis the concept of the “demographic stability” coefficient, allowing for cluster analysis.

du , Where

N(t ) is the number of people for the corresponding year (census years are selected), R/S is the ratio of the crude birth rate to the crude mortality rate. The introduced coefficient indicates population growth due to current natural increase and the demographic result of prolonged previous growth.

The threshold value in the case of a harmonious combination of positive signs of demographic stability (previous growth and current growth) is 2. If the coefficient is less than two, then the conclusion follows that something is wrong. Either earlier or at the current moment. This is where the possibility of semi-quantitative assessment of “sustainability” arises. The calculation takes into account those peoples who do not have statehood outside of Russia (to eliminate errors associated with migration flows). (Fig.8).

Fig.8. Coefficients of demographic stability of the peoples of Russia

This figure shows that there is also a religious characteristic “responsible” for demographic success. The demographic stability coefficient has a pronounced confessional character: for peoples professing Islam it is equal to 3.85; for Buddhists and shamanists – 2.86, for Orthodox peoples – 1.83. The only Orthodox people with a coefficient above 2 are the Ossetians. The peoples of the Islamic area, Buddhist and other beliefs are demographically reviving more actively. For some reason, Orthodoxy is still associated with the worst indicators of demographic development. Probably, the ideological mission of Orthodoxy has not yet become an effective factor influencing the reproductive tradition. The worst indicators are among the Mordovians and Russians, who have not yet reached the level of self-reproduction of the population.

Thus, the problem of the demographic crisis in Russia is mediated not only by ethnicity, but also by a mental factor, in particular, the role and significance of the ideological function of religion. The problem of the revival of Orthodoxy most acutely affects the Russian people. Therefore, indeed, we can talk about an ethno- and confessionally selective demographic crisis.

In the work “State policy of leading Russia out of the demographic crisis” a four-factor model is presented that explains the demographic situation in the country. It includes the material factor, the ideological and spiritual state of society, the civilizational identity of the Russian state and the role of state policy in managing demographic processes.

Typically, the overly exaggerated importance of the material factor actually only to some extent influences the results of the natural movement of the population. The emphasis of government demographic policy on maternal capital does not particularly affect demography and does not explain the observed positive phenomena in the current increase in birth rates. The psychological state of the population is more important. Thus, the stress of the 1998 default led to an increase in population loss in 1999, and the 2009 crisis slowed down the process of reducing population loss.

Improvement in fertility rates depends on the number of people entering childbearing age. The correlation between those born and those who entered childbearing age is greatest when the childbearing age is 30 years, as well as 25 and 29 (the birth rate of one year was compared with the birth rate of the year equal to the difference between the year being compared and the childbearing age). This correlation coincides with actual data on the distribution of births by maternal age. (Fig.9).

Fig.9. Correlation between the number of people entering childbearing age and the birth rate and the distribution of births by maternal age, in people. (according to 2012 data)

It follows that the current improvement in fertility rates in Russia is associated with the high growth in fertility in the 80s. This was a short-lived psychological effect of perestroika. In the future, the birth rate should slow down, since the new generation of people of childbearing age are children of the 90s, when there was a sharp drop in the birth rate. If we take 25 years as the average childbearing age, then starting from 2013 the growth rate will slow down, but if the childbearing age is 30 years, then over the next five years we can still expect an increase in the birth rate for some time, but from 2017 it will begin to decline steadily. (Fig. 10).

Fig. 10. Natural population growth and birth rate, thousand people, 1990-2012

The material factor explains nothing at all in terms of successful natural movement in national regions where the standard of living is low. Figure 11 shows the slowdown in the decline in attrition in 2010 as a consequence of the 2009 crisis for the subjects with the largest share of the Russian population. (Fig. 11).

Fig. 11. Average value of natural population decline for 20 regions with the share of Russians population over 90%, pers.

Thus, The demographic problem is only to a small extent determined by the material factor; the ideological and spiritual state of society has a significant influence.

Manifestations of the decadent ideological and spiritual state of the Russian and other Orthodox peoples are the following:

Value crisis;

Late marriage: decrease in the number of people getting married at the age of 18-24 and height in the range of 25-34 years (Fig. 12);

Fig. 12. Distribution by age at marriage for men and women (proportion of total number of people married), 1980-2010.

Divorces. The number of divorces per 1000 people in regions with the greatest population decline is 3.9-4.8, in the republics of the North Caucasus 0.9-3;

Sexualization of youth;

Extramarital reproduction;

Nuclearization of the family;

The problem of lonely people;

Abortion. Since 2000, there has been a downward trend in the number of abortions, which is largely due to the practice of widespread use of contraception. But Russia still has the highest abortion rate in Europe. In absolute terms, the number of abortions in 2012 was 1.06 million (compared to 2.13 million in 2000);

Alcoholism, drug addiction, substance abuse;

Suicide;

Gender gap and specifics of family relationships;

Confessional basis of demographic variability.

The government refuses to notice the fact that the low birth rate and high death rate in our country are associated primarily with the spiritual state of society. So, in Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated October 9, 2007 N 1351 “On approval of the Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025” it is written, that “the current demographic situation in the Russian Federation is largely determined by the socio-economic processes that took place in the 20th century.”

The main reasons for the low birth rates are named: “low monetary income of many families, lack of normal living conditions, modern family structure (orientation towards small children, an increase in the number of single-parent families), heavy physical labor of a significant part of working women (about 15 percent), working conditions that do not meet sanitary and hygienic standards standards, low level of reproductive health, high number of pregnancy terminations (abortions).” However, if you look at the statistics, you can see that it is in the national republics, especially the North Caucasus Federal District, that the population with the lowest incomes lives, whose birth rate is not affected by either the income level or the 2009 crisis.

A new problem aggravating the demographic crisis in the country is the immigration challenge to national identity. Currently, stabilization of the population in Russia has been achieved due to the migration balance (in 2012, the number of remaining migrants was 294,930 people).

The first years after the collapse of the USSR were characterized by two streams of migration: the Russian population from the former Soviet republics to Russia and the Russian population from Russia to European countries, the USA and Israel. At the first stage, there was an influx and outflow of highly qualified personnel (Fig. 13).

Figure 13. International population migration, in people, 1990-2012.

There was a noticeable decrease in the outflow of the population by the end of the 1990s. In the 2000s, the outflow of qualified labor decreased, but there was an increase in labor immigrants from a number of CIS republics. The coincidence of the dynamics of migration inflows from the CIS republics (Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Central Asian republics) indicates their labor quality. The exception is migrants from Kazakhstan, who, most likely, are the Russian population or assimilated Kazakhs who moved to Russia not for work, but for permanent residence. (Fig.14).

Fig. 14. Migration balance 2005-2011, people

In 2012, 91% of the total migration growth occurred in the CIS countries, of which 50% - these are representatives of the republics professing Islam (Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan), together with Kazakhstan - 63.5%. The influx of low-skilled labor on the one hand, and the increase in representatives of other religious faiths on the other hand, raises the question of the immigration challenge to national identity.

In the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, one of the tasks in the field of demographic policy is “attracting migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration.” This means that the current migration situation in the country is a consequence of the implementation of a specific task that clearly does not correspond to the national security of the country.

The concept further states that measures in the field of migration policy will be: promoting the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad; attracting qualified foreign specialists, attracting young people from foreign countries (primarily from member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania and the Republic of Estonia) for training and internships in the Russian Federation with the possible provision of advantages in obtaining Russian citizenship upon graduation, creating conditions for the integration of immigrants into Russian society and the development of tolerance in relations between the local population and immigrants from other countries in order to prevent ethno-confessional conflicts. It was not possible to attract qualified foreign specialists; a small number of compatriots returned from abroad, but instead of the declared attraction of qualified labor, labor migrants headed to the country, who were called upon to solve the demographic problem.

As a result, in solving the demographic problem, the instrument of migration policy was used, which in turn only led to visible improvements in the demographic situation and created more serious problems associated with the immigration challenge to Russian identity and the integration of a new ethnic community into the multinational Russian people.

Solving the problems of demographic policy through attracting migrants and increasing the standard of living of the population is not effective, since it completely ignores the fact that the modern demographic situation is caused by a spiritual crisis, especially of the Russian people. The crisis, which is already obvious, is of an ethno-selective nature, but this fact is hushed up or not noticed, in any case, there is no adequate state political reaction to it.

Table 8. Peoples of Russia. Ranking by population (largest to smallest)

Note:
* Data on fertility, mortality and natural increase are estimated or missing.
** Peoples of the Republic of Dagestan
Color designation (peoples column) based on religious characteristics.

Table 8 presents data on the demographic state of the peoples of Russia with a population of more than 100,000 people in 2010. Based on these data, the following conclusions can be drawn.

In general, such peoples as Chechens, Armenians, Avars, Ossetians, Dargins, Buryats, Yakuts, Kumyks, Ingush, Lezgins, Tuvans, Karachais, Kalmyks, Laks, Cossacks, Tabasarans, Uzbeks, Tajiks do not need additional measures to stimulate the birth rate , Balkars. Their numbers and share in the country's population have increased, the birth rate is above the national average, the mortality rate is below the national average, and the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. These peoples have retained their spiritual identity, have not accepted the destructive values of consumer society, and demonstrate high potential for further demographic growth.

An effective state policy to stimulate the birth rate is carried out in relation to the Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvash, Udmurts, Kabardians and Komi. Although their numbers and share in the country's population have decreased, the peoples have been able to achieve natural growth; the potential for their further demographic recovery is high birth rates and low deaths. These peoples demonstrate cohesion and national self-identification, which is largely due to the presence of their own state formation within Russia. They also retained traditional moral and spiritual values to a greater extent.

It is necessary to take additional measures to stimulate the birth rate for Russians, Mordovians and Adygeis. An analysis of the situation of the Russian people speaks of a selective policy of reducing its numbers: this is the only people in Russia that does not have its own statehood - it is Russian statehood, the birth rate remains below the Russian average, mortality rates exceed the average, the size and proportion of the population continues to decline steadily. The borrowed values of the consumer society, which are corrupting the spiritual foundation of the Russian people, the lack of cohesion, a unifying national idea and a sense of pride in one’s country, lead to the loss of original spiritual guidelines, which finds its physical expression in the natural decline of the Russian population and the reduction in its numbers.

But it is the Russian people who are the bond of all Russian peoples, Orthodoxy is the spiritual basis that can unite different faiths on the principle of peaceful coexistence and harmonious development. Awareness of the described threat and adequate government policy are required.

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision // United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2013

The peoples whose population as of 2002 exceeded 100,000 people and who did not have statehood outside the Russian Federation are listed.

State policy of bringing Russia out of the demographic crisis / Monograph. V.I. Yakunin, S.S. Sulakshin, V.E. Bagdasaryan and others. Generally edited by S.S. Sulakshina. 2nd ed. - M.: ZAO ≪Publishing House ≪Economy≫, Scientific Expert, 2007. - 888 p.