Total debt of the Russian Federation. Russia's external debt. External debt structure

MOSCOW, February 6. /TASS/. The ratio of the Russian government debt to GDP may reach 14.7% of GDP by the end of 2017, and increase to 15.7% of GDP by the end of 2019. This is stated in the published “Main Directions of the Ministry of Finance’s Debt Policy for 2017-2019.”

At the same time, the share of expenditures on servicing the public debt in the total volume of federal budget expenditures will be 4.5% by the end of 2017, and will increase to 5.4% by the end of 2019, the ministry predicts. The department noted that the public debt of the Russian Federation at the end of 2016 amounted to 11.1 trillion rubles. or 13.2% of GDP.

In the period from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2016, the public debt of the Russian Federation increased from 7.5 trillion rubles. (10.6% of GDP) to 11.1 trillion rubles. (13.2% of GDP), on average increasing annually by about 1% of GDP. At the same time, the average growth rate of public debt exceeded the growth rate of the country's GDP.

Nevertheless, by the beginning of 2017, the total debt burden was still within safe limits - less than 15% of GDP, which is a moderate value by international standards, the Ministry of Finance points out.

According to the document, net borrowings of the Russian Federation in 2016 amounted to 606.6 billion rubles. Internal borrowings accounted for 500 billion rubles, external borrowings accounted for 106.6 billion rubles.

Growth in domestic borrowings

Net domestic borrowings of the Russian Federation in 2019 will reach 1.1% of GDP and will become the maximum in the entire history of modern Russia, the document emphasizes.

“The volumes of net external borrowings expressed in securities will take negative values: minus 21.2 billion rubles in 2017, minus 60.1 and minus 13.2 billion rubles in 2018 and 2019, respectively. As for gross domestic borrowings, they, on the contrary, will increase from 1.2% of GDP in 2016 to 1.7% in 2019. This year, net domestic borrowings will reach 1.1% of GDP (versus 0.6% of GDP in 2016) . These values will become the maximum in the entire history of modern Russia,” the document says.

At the same time, the Ministry of Finance notes a tendency towards the accumulation of significant budgetary risks associated with a possible deterioration in the financial terms of borrowing for the Russian Federation as a sovereign borrower and an increase in the debt burden. “In the most negative scenario, we may be talking about the impossibility of attracting borrowed resources in the required volumes and on acceptable terms,” the Ministry of Finance warns.

The document notes that the planned internal borrowings of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019. are marginal from the point of view of the current market capacity.

“The supply volumes of government securities planned for the next three years are estimated as limiting in terms of its current capacity. This circumstance makes it particularly important to successfully solve the tasks of diversifying the debt instruments offered to the market and expanding the circle of its participants,” the document says.

External loans and projects of the EBRD

The total volume of borrowings of the Russian Federation from international development banks (IDBs) in 2017-2019 will not exceed 14.8 billion rubles.

“If the current level of geopolitical tension continues in the period 2017-2019, the total volume of borrowing (use of already provided loans) by Russia from MDBs will not exceed an average of $215.4 million per year or 14.8 billion rubles,” the document notes.

At the same time, the ministry reported that for 2017-2019. laid down a reduction in the portfolio of projects of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the main growth will be achieved by attracting funds from relatively recently established international development banks - mainly the New Development Bank (NDB) of the BRICS.

The Ministry of Finance recalled that Russia is currently a shareholder of seven development banks: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), EBRD, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), NDB, Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB), International Investment Bank (IIB) and the International Bank for Economic Cooperation (IBEC). As part of cooperation with them as a sovereign borrower, about 20 projects are at various stages of preparation and implementation, involving the attraction of borrowed resources totaling about $5 billion.

“However, due to sanctions, a number of projects were not submitted for approval by the executive bodies of these banks and, as a result, did not enter into force. As a result, the share of obligations under IDB loans in the structure of the Russian Federation’s public external debt by the end of 2016 was less than 2%,” - noted in the document.

Steady demand for government bonds

The Ministry of Finance predicts stable demand for government bonds in 2017-2019, in particular, due to a structural liquidity surplus.

"In the coming period (2017-2019 - editor's note), the banking system is expected to transition to a structural liquidity deficit. An excess of free resources, as well as the need for banks to comply with short-term liquidity standards, will contribute to an increase in demand for high-quality financial assets with a low level of risk All these factors will play a key role in the formation of sustainable demand for government securities,” the document notes.

A structural liquidity deficit in the banking sector arises when banks have a persistent need to obtain liquidity through transactions with the Bank of Russia. A surplus is the opposite situation and is expressed in the need for banks to place funds with the regulator.

OFZ

Raising funds through the issue of OFZ linked to the inflation rate (OFZ-IN) is not considered as a significant source of financing the federal budget deficit.

At the same time, according to the Ministry of Finance, the main instruments for implementing the government domestic borrowing program will remain OFZ with a constant coupon income (OFZ-PD) and OFZ with a variable coupon income (OFZ-PK). Compared to the previous period, the role of floating interest rate instruments will increase.

“With a relatively stable market situation and a trend towards lower interest rates, the emphasis will be on the placement of medium- and long-term OFZ-PD. On the contrary, during periods of increased volatility of interest rates, preference will be given to the issue of “protective” instruments - OFZ-PK, as well as OFZ -IN. However, raising funds through the issue of OFZ-IN is not considered as a significant source of financing the federal budget deficit. Borrowings in this instrument will be focused, first of all, on solving the problem of creating an adequate benchmark for the cost of borrowing for corporate borrowers and an indicator reflecting inflation expectations of market participants,” says the Ministry of Finance document.

The total share of OFZ with variable coupon yield (OFZ-PK) and OFZ linked to the inflation rate (OFZ-IN) in the total volume of domestic public debt will not exceed 20-25%.

“The issue of bonds with a variable level of income (OFZ-PK and OFZ-IN) will be one of the ways to minimize the cost of raising borrowed funds by the state for a long period of time in conditions when interest rates on fixed income instruments (OFZ-PD) are objectively overstated. However, the issue "such bonds are associated for the issuer with the risk of an increase in the cost of servicing the debt in the future (interest rate risk). As a consequence, the volume of issue of such instruments cannot but be limited," the document notes.

The Ministry of Finance proceeds from the fact that the total share of OFZ-PK and OFZ-IN in the total volume of state internal debt expressed in securities will not exceed 20-25% of the volume of state internal debt. “Currently, this figure has already reached 17%,” the Ministry of Finance document says.

OFZ in yuan

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation announced the interest of Russian and Chinese banks in organizing the placement of federal loan bonds (OFZ) in yuan.

“Currently, we can talk about the interest of both Russian professional stock market participants and Russian subsidiaries of a number of Chinese banks to act as organizers of such a placement (placement of OFZ in yuan on the Moscow Exchange - editor’s note),” the document notes.

The Ministry of Finance points out that in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, the issue of OFZs in yuan on the domestic market of the Russian Federation, aimed not at “offshore”, but at domestic investors from China, is the most promising.

Previously, it was reported that the Russian Ministry of Finance plans to place OFZs in yuan on the domestic market in 2016 with a volume of up to $1 billion. Later, the ministry adjusted its plans for 2017. It is noted that the infrastructure of the Russian financial market is completely ready for such placement.

Country's external debt as defined by the IMF, it is the amount of outstanding current, unconditional obligations of principal and interest incurred by residents of one country to non-residents, as well as obligations of residents of a country to non-residents due at a specified time in the future.

A country's external debt includes public and private debt (public and private sector debt). External debt, on the one hand, helps to increase the financial resources of countries, on the other hand, it increases the financial risks of an economic crisis. The amount of total external debt and overdue debt significantly affects the country's rating in the international credit market. The lower the credit rating of a country or its residents, the stricter the conditions for granting new loans. Countries with high levels of overdue debt are effectively denied access to global credit markets. For them, the only source of external borrowing is the resources of the IMF and the World Bank Group.

The occurrence of overdue debt forces the state to negotiate with foreign creditors to resolve the external debt. External debt settlement is the borrower taking measures to eliminate overdue external debt with a reduction in interest and principal payments. The largest portion of official external debt is held by countries that are members of the Paris Club, while private debt is held by banks that are members of the London Club.

Paris Club - an informal association of governments of creditor countries, which are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, USA, Switzerland, Sweden, France, Finland and Japan. The association was created in 1956 to restructure the debt of developing countries.

In its work, the Paris Club is guided by three basic principles:

the presence of an immediate threat of termination of payments;
conditionality of debt restructuring by the debtor’s obligation to pursue a certain economic policy;
equitable distribution of the burden of unpaid debts among creditors.

Debt restructuring - This is a form of debt reorganization in which debtors and creditors agree to defer payments of principal and interest due within a certain period of time, as well as a new schedule for such payments. Under the Paris Club, debt restructuring mostly applies to the poorest countries. In relation to different countries, creditor states use different methods.

The project, called the HI PC Initiative, involves targeted efforts to reduce the debt burden of the poorest developing countries, subject to the implementation of financial recovery reforms approved by the World Bank and the IMF in these countries over a specified period.

External debt of the Russian Federation

Russia's external public debt was inherited from the USSR. All CIS countries, except Ukraine, entrusted Russia with certain conditions to service their external public debt. The total total debt of all CIS countries to foreign creditors (excluding Ukraine) in 1993 amounted to about $70 billion (the external debt of the USSR in 1987 was $40 billion). It was extremely difficult to pay off this public debt in a relatively short time, since Russia's foreign exchange earnings from its exports fell sharply and, to a greater extent, the state's share in this earnings decreased. In practice, Russia could annually pay its creditors no more than $2.5 billion, which is approximately equal to the amount of annual interest on external debt. In 1993, the Paris Club delayed for several years the payment of the principal part of the Russian debt.

Russia’s external debt can be roughly divided into seven components:

loans from international organizations (64%, or $128.3 billion);
restructured debt of the USSR;
loans and borrowings from Russian banks (9%);
loans and borrowings from Russian companies (12.5%, or $25 billion);
domestic foreign currency bonds (6%, or $11.4 billion);
Eurobonds (8%, or $16.2 billion);
subfederal external loans and credits (1%, or $2.8 billion).

On September 17, 1997, in Paris, the Government of the Russian Federation signed a Memorandum of Understanding, formalizing the accession of the Russian Federation to the activities of the Paris Club of Creditors as a full member state. Joining the Paris Club contributes to Russia's further integration into the international financial system.

1999-2001 — peak of the country’s foreign debt settlements. Every year Russia had to spend 18-20 billion dollars on interest payments and repayment of loans and borrowings (an amount comparable to the budget revenues). The impending peak was due to the fact that obligations on old, still Soviet debts overlapped with obligations on credits and loans received after January 1, 1992. In principle, the size of Russian sovereign debt is relatively small. At the beginning of 1998, the total debt to external creditors amounted to approximately $130 billion, of which $100 billion remained from the USSR.

Russia fully repaid the debt of the former USSR to the Paris Club of creditors in June 2006. The total amount of payments amounted to $23.7 billion.

In 2006, scheduled payments of $1.3 billion were made. At the same time, Vnesheconombank paid $22.5 billion to the US for early repayment of the debt. In addition to the total amount of debt, Russia had to pay an additional $1 billion premium to the largest creditors. Of these funds, Germany received $700 million. Prepayment savings amounted to $7.7 billion over the next 15 years.

As of January 1, 2008, Russia's external debt amounted to 459.6 billion rubles, including the debt of the private sector - 249.6 billion rubles, private banks - 163.7 billion rubles.

Country's external debt

It is formed as a result of the influx of loan capital into the country and the emergence of obligations to repay these loans, advances, borrowings and interest payments. The total amount of external debt in the world is approaching $2.4 trillion. Note that this is the debt of only countries with non-convertible or limited convertible currencies. For countries with a convertible currency, the problem of external debt formally does not exist - after all, they can pay obligations to non-residents with their national currency, freely exchanging it for foreign currency, i.e. repaying its debt at the expense of its internal assets, and not just external ones, like countries with an inconvertible or limited convertible currency. Informal analysis says that it is in this group of countries that the external debt is the highest (in the USA alone at the beginning of 2004 it amounted to $7 trillion).

External debt is divided into public (about $1.7 trillion worldwide) and private (about $0.7 trillion). Public external debt consists of external liabilities of government bodies (including local authorities), as well as government-guaranteed external liabilities of the private sector. Private debt is formed from the external liabilities of firms and banks. In terms of external debt, the leaders are Brazil, Russia, China, Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey. At the beginning of this decade, all these countries had external debt exceeding $100 billion, and Brazil even had $200 billion.

However, the severity of the external debt is determined not only by its size, but also by payments on this debt. Let's consider the severity of external debt using the example of Russia.

By the beginning of 2004, our country’s external debt amounted to $182 billion. In relation to GDP at the exchange rate ($433 billion in 2003), this is 42%, and in relation to annual exports of goods and services ($152 billion). in 2003) - 120%. Such indicators can be regarded as moderate. For comparison, we point out that at the beginning of the current decade, of the above countries, they were 94 and 200% for Indonesia, but only 14 and 53% for China. These are indicators of the severity of external debt.

Another indicator speaks about the severity of servicing external debt. In 2003, Russia spent, according to estimates, about 35 billion dollars on payments on external debt (external debt service), including more than 14 billion as part of servicing the state external debt. In relation to the main source of foreign currency - income from the export of goods and services in the amount of $152 billion - this amounted to about 23%, including 9% from payments on government external debt. It is believed that a dangerous threshold for this indicator is a value exceeding 20-25%. Therefore, this indicator for Russia can be considered moderate.

Nevertheless, the problem of external debt is acute in Russia, although its content has changed: if in the last decade it was more of a problem of public external debt, now it is more of a problem of private external debt. Russia's public external debt, due to the large influx of petrodollars into the state budget and gold and foreign exchange reserves, tends to decrease (decreased from $156 billion at the beginning of 1999 to $107 billion at the beginning of 2004), although payments on it increased, reaching a peak in 2005 - $18.9 billion. At the same time, private debt tends to grow (from $30 billion at the beginning of 1999 to $75 billion at the beginning of 2004) due to the high cost and insufficient availability of bank loans in Russia, i.e. due to the weakness of the banking system of our country, even in the face of a large influx of petrodollars.

A country's external debt has both negative and positive aspects. Typically, modern economists, under the influence of the debt crisis of developing countries and some countries with economies in transition, focus on the negative aspects - the burden of servicing external debt, the emergence of economic and political dependence on creditors, and the ineffective use of borrowed funds. However, let us not forget that half of the railways existing in Russia were built with foreign loans (mostly French), that American industry largely grew on foreign loans (mostly English), that in our time, newly industrialized countries are actively using cheap and abundant foreign sources of loan capital for its rapid economic growth.

It is difficult to balance the negative and positive aspects of external debt, but it can probably be concluded that the positive aspects outweigh the negative if a capital-starved country uses borrowed funds from abroad so effectively that it does not create difficulties in servicing the debt and high dependence on creditors. And for this, borrowed funds should be used not so much to finance the state budget deficit (as in Russia in the 90s), but rather to long-term investments in the national economy, including those leading to an increase in foreign currency earnings for the subsequent payment of external debt.

External debt to the country

It is formed as a result of the outflow of loan capital from the country and the emergence of external assets among its residents in the form of granted credits, advances, borrowings and interest on them. Our country's external debt at the beginning of 2004, judging by Russia's international investment position, amounted to $86 billion. It was formed primarily as a result of the Soviet Union providing economic and military assistance to its allies and partners, especially economically backward ones. Therefore, the largest debtors to Russia now include Cuba, Libya, Angola, and the DPRK. But at the same time, among the new countries that are debtors to Russia are many CIS countries, primarily Ukraine, which do not always fully pay for Russian exports of goods and services to these countries, especially those that are guaranteed by intergovernmental agreements.

Unlike Russia's external debt to other countries, this external debt generates very small payments - in 2003, Russia received from abroad, according to estimates, less than $6 billion. payments towards external debt, including less than 2.5 billion in public debt. The reason for such small payments through the state line is primarily the low solvency of debtor countries, many of which are not able to service their debt to Russia at all or on time. Hence the write-off (full or partial) of this debt to some debtors - Mongolia, Vietnam, or its restructuring, i.e. re-registration on other terms - Ukraine and other CIS countries. As a result, the external debt of other Russian states is decreasing (in the early 90s, it was estimated to be more than $150 billion).

Compared to other countries, this is a “legacy” from the USSR. Of course, the former Union acted not only as a borrower, but also as a lender, however, due to the lack of freely convertible currency with which to pay for the goods supplied and services provided, it was necessary to resort to borrowing from other countries.

The main difference between the debts of other countries to the Russian Federation is that our country presented loans in commodity form (weapons, fuel), but Russia’s debt is expressed in dollar equivalent. The greatest increase in debt dates back to the years of crisis, when the country could not pay current debts, incurred new ones, and, in addition, fine payments were accrued on old ones. Over the past year, Russia's debt to other countries increased by 15.4% and amounted to $623.963 billion in monetary terms.

Most of the debt is in the banking sector - $208.37 billion. Why? The fact is that due to the recent crisis, which in one way or another affected our country, in 2012 the entire market grew at the expense of funds from the state, so raising borrowed funds in this situation is a more correct decision. Moreover, Russia's increased debt does not pose any threat to the country's economy. That's what the experts say.

If we express Russia's debt to other countries in GDP, it turns out that the mark is at the level of 20%. If we compare it with the situation on the world stage, where in many European countries this mark has long exceeded the level of 100%, then the Russian Federation in this case is in a favorable zone without the risk of an economic crisis. Analysts argue that the only negative aspect in the current situation can be called the growth of corporate debt, including the banking sector. But they immediately reassure us: this means that this year we can definitely expect that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will tighten its activities to reduce risks.

Despite its growth, over the past decade Russia has made a huge number of “gifts” to other countries, writing off part of the debt for some, and the entire amount for others. Such wastefulness caused and still causes a lot of controversy and discontent on the part of not only political figures, but also ordinary citizens of our homeland. Of course, on the one hand, this is a big step towards establishing strong trade and economic relations with countries based on trust, and increasing the number of our allies. But on the other hand, throughout history, no one has ever forgiven Russia a cent, a penny, or a penny, even in those years when the country was “on its knees.” The only help is issuing the same loans for which you had to pay with interest!

But Russia’s internal debt is impressive in its size - at the end of last year it amounted to 4.06 trillion rubles. And in the coming years, the Ministry of Finance will have to pay off these debts, for which a corresponding program has already been drawn up for the next 25 years. The state's share of this entire amount accounts for just the smallest part. Thus, the debt of the banking sector is more than $200 billion, the debt of business or the “other sector” is $356 billion.

But, as mentioned above, our debts are just flowers. For example, we can cite the size of the US foreign debt - more than 10 trillion dollars! In America, a debt of 4 billion accumulates in one day! So, Russia is more than 60 billion dollars. And it is our country that is still unstable and undeveloped for everyone in the world...

Public debt is the country's obligations to creditors. They can be legal entities and citizens, foreign powers, international organizations.

Structure of public debt

A country's obligations may arise from legal relations with organizations and persons operating within its territory. Such government debt is considered domestic. It is presented in the form of ruble obligations to residents. External public debt - loans in foreign currency from non-residents.

Forms of obligations

Russian government debt is presented as:

Loan agreements with financial (including international) organizations and foreign powers. They are concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation.
Valuable papers. They are also issued on behalf of the Russian Federation.
Re-registration of credit obligations accepted by third parties.
Agreements on the provision of state guarantees.

Internal loans can be in the form of:

Russia's public debt can be:

Long-term - for 5-30 years.
Medium term - 1-5 liters.
Short-term - up to a year.

Repayment of obligations is carried out within the period established by the terms of the loan. However, this period should not be more than 30 years. Russia's public debt is secured by federal property.

Commitment management

The Russian Federation is not liable for the debts of the constituent entities and municipalities of the country if they were not secured by guarantees from the federal government. Maximum borrowing volumes are established in accordance with the Budget Law for the coming year. According to Art. 106 BC, external public debt cannot exceed the limit on the volume of payments per year for its servicing and repayment. The Budget Law for the coming period approves the borrowing program. It presents a list of external loans indicating the sources, purpose, repayment period and their total volume. This program stipulates all government guarantees and loans, the amount of which is greater than the equivalent of $10 million. The procedure, conditions for issuance (issue) and placement of obligations are established by the government.

Decision on issue

This act is adopted by the government in accordance with the maximum volumes of the budget deficit and public debt, which are established in the Internal Borrowing Program and the Budget Law. The decision to issue securities reflects information about the issuer, volumes and conditions of the procedure.

Guarantees

Such public debt is a type of security that involves a written obligation. Under it, the guarantor is responsible for the fulfillment by the person who received the loan of the terms of his agreement with third parties. The Budget Law for the next period establishes a limit on the amount of guarantees. If it is expressed in rubles, it is included in the domestic public debt. The amount may also be in foreign currency. In this case, it refers to external debt.

Important point

According to Art. 118 BC, budgetary institutions are not entitled to take loans from credit institutions. However, they can receive loans. The sources of such loans are extra-budgetary (state) funds and budgets. The Treasury is responsible for maintaining the register of loans of unitary enterprises.

Documentation

The administrative apparatus provides for an institution that controls the public debt - the Ministry of Finance. Information on the volume of obligations is entered into the relevant books. The regional, municipal and state debt of the Russian Federation on issued securities is documented. The necessary information is entered into the Loan Book within a period of no more than three days from the date of occurrence of the obligation.

Basic Tools

There are several ways to change the terms under which government debt is repaid. This:

Prerequisites for the occurrence

Public debt is a consequence of the objective need to attract additional sources of financing expenditures in the country and the budget deficit. For this purpose, first of all, own funds are mobilized. If these sources are exhausted, there is a need to borrow from international organizations and other countries. External debt can be provided in the form of grant financing or as repayable lending. Funds are raised in two directions: private and public, depending on the sources.

Service system

It presupposes a certain scheme according to which the public debt is repaid. This is done in several stages:

Payment of interest.
Repayment of principal.
Refinancing if necessary.

For example, the conditional public debt of the Russian Federation is 100 thousand units. At a rate of 20% and a payment period of 4 years with a one-year grace period (when only interest is repaid), 80 thousand should be added to the specified amount. Even with such a simple scheme, direct management of public debt presents a certain complexity. In this regard, the service system includes:

Servicing of internal government loans of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Central Bank and its divisions, unless otherwise established by Government Resolution. It is carried out through operations aimed at placing obligations, repaying them and paying income on them in the form of interest or in another form. Control over the state of public debt is exercised by executive and legislative authorities.

Conclusion

In 1985, the external debt of the Soviet Union was $22.5 billion. By 1991, it had increased to 65 billion. On January 1, 2003, the external public debt of the Russian Federation (together with loans from the USSR) amounted to $124.5 billion. According to calculations, it would take over the course of thirty years, it was necessary to pay at least $300 billion. To ensure its own foreign economic and foreign policy interests, Russia provides for the provision of loans to foreign countries. The program for such lending is approved in the Federal Budget Law for the next financial period. It contains a list of loans, indicating the purposes of their provision, amounts and recipients of funds. All agreements that relate to the restructuring of loans or writing off the debt of foreign countries to the Russian Federation must be ratified by the State Duma.

A country's financial obligations to borrow from other countries are called external debt. This amount also includes unpaid interest. The Budget Code of the Russian Federation interprets the meaning of the phrase “external debt” as follows: the entire debt of the country in foreign currency.

Creditors for the state can be:

other powers;
financial organizations of global importance (IMF - International Monetary Fund, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, etc.);
non-residents (private funds for international financing).

Time frame specialists classify external debts into:

Short-term – loan for up to 1 year.
Medium-term – for 5 years.
Long-term – for 30 years.

External debt can increase due to the capitalization of interest on earlier loans and due to unfulfilled obligations within a certain period for any reason.

State external debt of Russia

Many financial experts express the opinion that today’s external public debt of our state is the fruit of the USSR’s painstaking borrowing from other powers. It is expressed in dollar terms. The fact is that after the collapse of the Union, not a single newly created independent state, except ours, would be able to undertake the fulfillment of the debt obligations of its progenitor. And at the insistence of the Western creditor powers, the “zero option” worked: in two years (1992-1993), the former republics of the Union transferred their foreign assets and loan obligations to the Russian Federation. As some compensation, the Russian Federation also received the opportunity to be a creditor for Cuba, Iraq, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Syria, Vietnam, North Korea, Ethiopia, Algeria, Libya, and India.

Russia's debt to other countries consists of:

Obligations of the former Union (until January 1, 1992) to the Paris and London Clubs:
- interbank loans;
- bills;
- securities;
- bonds.
Obligations of the Russian Federation (after January 1992) to non-residents (IMF and World Bank Group):
- budget-replacing loans (financial - a series of tranches to implement economic reforms and finance imports);
- investment debts (non-financial - for financing in the field of energy, transport, utilities, road construction, education, medicine);
- advance debts (to assist in the preparation of technical projects and their implementation);
- Eurobonds (to finance the budget deficit);
- commercial transactions;
- government loans on a bilateral basis.

External debt management

The Russian government takes a number of actions to repay loans. This:

Restructuring (changing lending conditions) of debt to the Paris and London clubs.
Exchange of government short-term bonds (GKOs) for Eurobonds (bearer securities).
Transition of GKOs to OFZs (federal loan bonds).
Exchange of OVGVZ (domestic government foreign currency loan bonds) for OGVZ (government foreign currency loan bonds).
Changing commercial debts to Eurobond loans.

In addition to the above-mentioned standard operations for repaying external loans, the Russian government used a number of non-standard ones:

financing the export of goods (to pay off debt) to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, China, Poland, France, Finland, Italy, South Korea, Uruguay;
discounting with early payment of loan obligations (for this, the Russian Federation Stabilization Fund, formed thanks to additional profits from high oil prices, is used).

According to experts, such non-standard steps benefit Russia and help pay off its external debt. If all of the above measures are carried out consistently, then there is a prospect of getting out of the debt crisis over the next ten years, and thanks to this, the economic situation in the country will stabilize. But we have to make significant efforts in the current situation for 2019.

Russia's external debt to other countries for 2018-2019

Financial experts have calculated that according to the results of the last quarter of 2017, Russia’s external debt amounts to 537.5 billion US dollars. But at the same time they reassure that even such an amount cannot lead our country to default, although some companies risk going bankrupt.

Russia's most significant debt is to the United States and EU countries. Experts clarify that in 2018, payments on Russia’s external debt amounted to $12.5 billion. Thanks to devaluation (decrease in the value of the national currency), the total debt increases, although debts are constantly being paid. In 2019, almost all budget funds will be spent on paying off external public debt. In this regard, Russian business will face a decrease in income (as a result - job cuts, reduction in tax deductions, and an increase in the share of imports).

Russia is gradually changing its status: from a debtor to a creditor. According to financial reports, the private sector's position in external assets has become equal to its liabilities. The problem remains with balancing our country's budget, which, as you know, is based on the oil pricing policy in rubles.

Expert opinion

Any external debt for a country is an indicator of trust in it from other states. If this country has a stable economic situation, then external debt will not be a key problem for the government and population. Experts have determined the limits beyond which the country’s economy can lead to decline - this is the ratio of external debt to gross domestic product over 80% (low - up to 48%, moderate - up to 80%). These calculations are based on the fact that any debt of the country to other creditor states is paid from the cost of products produced on its territory.

With an increase in external debt, the rating of this country and the authority of its government among the population automatically decreases.

Repayment of external government debt for the first half of 2017:

$29 billion towards principal;
$12.8 billion in interest.

Experts draw conclusions: in 2018 they paid less than the amount of debt already paid in 2019. This situation is explained by the fact that in 2019 the Russian Federation maintained a positive trade balance (the difference between the price of exports and imports) - in January - July 2018, this difference amounted to $72 billion.

In addition, the Central Bank of Russia predicts that there will be no excess demand in the foreign exchange market. Also, the devaluation of the Russian ruble, which was the case at the end of last year, is not expected (oil prices dropped sharply, while the availability of financial markets for companies in our country was limited). There will be no repetition of last year’s situation, so experts advise not to panic, but to make plans for the future with optimism.