Will the dollar rate increase in the near future? When will the dollar rate fall? The influence of the dollar on the Russian economy

Currently, the dollar is the most stable world currency. Its long-term peg to gold at the end of the last century, as well as the strong US economy, made the dollar a substitute for gold and foreign exchange reserves for some countries. They are actively making payments not only in America, but also in other countries, including Russia.

During the Cold War, the USSR had real opportunities to bring down the dollar and the US economy, which was on the verge of collapse after the dollar default in 1971 and the oil crisis in 1973. The CPSU Central Committee officially considered this issue.

And therefore, if the American currency falls (especially if the collapse is significant), such a situation will inevitably lead to a severe blow to the economies of these countries. Even if all sectors of their national economy were steadily developing in an upward direction.

However, the situation described above can only happen in the event of global upheavals in America itself. For example, if suddenly creditor countries (at least 2-3 major ones) ask the United States to repay their debts; Moreover, not, but, let’s say, in gold. The American currency is practically not backed by gold or other unconditional values, therefore the collapse of the US economy in such a situation is more than likely.

When can we expect the dollar to fall?

It is hardly worth waiting for or even trying to predict the exact date of such a devastating situation like the one described above. However, the dollar rate (like the rate of any other currency) falls very often even on a daily basis. And such jumps are much easier to predict.

Many factors can predict the fall of the American currency. Below are the main ones.

1. The instability of the US economy. The worsening situation of the country's national economy means a decreased interest of domestic and foreign investors in investing in various objects (for example, companies or securities) owned by a given state. This means that investors do not need to buy money from this country in order to invest in its objects. Since money is largely subject to market laws, reduced demand for it will also contribute to a decrease in its price (purchasing power, the exchange rate of a given currency in relation to others).

2. Management of deposit rates in banks. When the refinancing rate is high or low rates, it becomes more profitable to store money in other currencies. Therefore, the demand for the dollar and at the same time its exchange rate are falling.

3. Rising prices for raw materials (including oil). America is an importer (consumer) of oil and other raw materials. Therefore, an increase in the price of raw materials means a weakening of the American budget, and at the same time the American currency.

A jump in oil prices is a good indicator that the dollar will soon fall. At the same time, the price of oil is growing faster than the dollar is depreciating.

4. Natural disasters and major terrorist attacks confidently undermine the purchasing power of the currencies of any country, not just the dollar.

In addition to the above, there are many more factors that negatively affect the dollar. However, these situations are easiest to see in the markets and use for your own purposes (for example, in trading on the foreign exchange market).

07.08.19
The ruble is undervalued after falling in early August. It is likely that its rate will recover against the backdrop of a decline in fears associated with recently announced sanctions and signals from the US Federal Reserve about further easing of policy, predicts Sberbank CIB analyst Yuri Popov. 2 2 775
06.08.19
The new package of anti-Russian sanctions may have spooked investors, but the ruble is already regaining its position after falling 2% against the dollar on Thursday and Friday, August 1 and 2, Bloomberg reports. This can be called a noticeable improvement compared to the situation last year, when the United States introduced the first package of anti-Russian sanctions in connection with the assassination attempt on former double agent Sergei Skripal in the United Kingdom... 2 083
06.08.19
Dmitry Babin, stock market expert at BKS Broker, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 5 174
06.08.19
It will not be possible to quickly “dedollarize” international trade. 987
06.08.19
The signed law also gradually abolishes the repatriation of rubles by exporters and reduces the reporting of accounts in “good” countries. 771
06.08.19
Federal Law of 02.08.2019 N 265-FZ "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Currency Regulation and Currency Control" in terms of liberalizing restrictions on foreign exchange transactions by residents using accounts (deposits) opened in banks located outside the territory of the Russian Federation Federation, and repatriation of funds" 305
05.08.19
The exchange rate of the ruble against leading currencies is currently more influenced by external factors than by the introduction of the second package of US sanctions, says Finam Group analyst Sergei Drozdov. The second package of US sanctions against Russia as part of the “Skripal case” includes restrictions on public debt and Washington’s demand that international organizations, for example, the World Bank and the IMF, not provide loans to Moscow. American banks will be prohibited from participating... 1 166
05.08.19
Rosbank chief analyst Evgeny Koshelev said that the ruble could lose another 1-1.5% against the US dollar against the backdrop of a new package of American sanctions. The measures were reflected in the introduction of a ban on the participation of American banks in the primary market for non-ruble bonds of Russian sovereign debt. “Federal loan bonds for five years may open at the level of 7.30-7.35% and OFZ for 10 years - 7.50-7.55%,” the analyst said. He added that the negative factor... 1 152
05.08.19
Russia can easily do without American loans, said Anton Siluanov. According to him, the Russian economy is quickly adapting to external restrictions. 3 958
05.08.19
The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China provoked the withdrawal of global investors from risky assets. Against this background, at the end of the week the ruble fell sharply and oil prices sank. It is obvious that the sale of risky assets will continue on Monday; it will be aggravated by the effect of new US sanctions against Russia. At the same time, in August it is unlikely that there will be a deeper decline in oil prices and the ruble exchange rate than on Friday. Against the backdrop of a new revolution... 1 022
02.08.19
Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 31 11 424
01.08.19
August is a traditionally difficult period for the ruble, and in the coming month the Russian currency may be subject to several shocks, the main ones being sanctions and oil shocks. They are capable of devaluing the ruble by 10% at once, and subsequently more, according to some experts interviewed by the Prime agency. However, the arrival of the so-called “black swans” is an unlikely event, and analysts are more inclined to expect a slight change in the exchange rate... 3 902
01.08.19
The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) lowered its base interest rate for the first time since December 2008. 1 3 594
31.07.19
The wider use of national currencies is supported by the European Union and China, but the move away from the dollar will not be quick - a restructuring of the entire global financial system is required. Dmitry Timofeev, director of the Ministry of Finance’s department for monitoring external restrictions, told RBC about this. According to him, the process is being slowed down due to the global historical role of the US dollar as the most liquid currency with a highly developed system of correspondent accounts. "Connecting... 1 021

31.07.19
The Ministry of Finance believes that in this case the recalculation is made at the Central Bank exchange rate on the date of issuance of the accountable amounts. 3 321
31.07.19
Georgy Vashchenko, head of operations on the Russian stock market at Freedom Finance Investment Company, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 4 086
30.07.19
The central event of the week, both for the ruble and for all financial markets, will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on July 31, where the American regulator is expected to reduce the base rate for the first time since 2008. But the strengthening of the Russian currency that such a decision should cause is likely to be insignificant. On the eve of the payment of income tax, the July tax period ended. Analysts at Bank St. Petersburg estimate the amount of payments on it at 420... 1 605
29.07.19
In the second half of this year, the formation of a foreign currency deficit in the domestic market and the weakening of the ruble cannot be ruled out. This is stated in the next issue of “Comments on the State and Business” from the Higher School of Economics. The author of the review, Sergei Pukhov, in particular, points out that with seasonality eliminated, the current account surplus in the second quarter decreased by about 10% compared to the first quarter of this year - to $20 billion. By... 895
29.07.19
Since the beginning of January, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar by almost ten percent and by eleven percent against the euro. This is the best result among emerging market currencies. The exchange rate was not affected by fluctuations in oil prices or threats of American sanctions. August is approaching - traditionally a difficult month for the Russian currency. What to expect from the ruble in the last month of summer - in the material of RIA Novosti. New reality In the first half of the year, the ruble showed the best... 1 796
29.07.19
Vladimir Rozhankovsky, LIFA, expert at the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 3 913
29.07.19
At the same time, according to the American president, this makes it “more difficult to compete.” 654
26.07.19
Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst of BCS Premier, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 268
25.07.19
1 717
10.07.19
The number of dollar millionaires in Russia in 2018 amounted to 200.3 thousand people, which is a record figure since 2008, according to the World Wealth Report prepared by the financial company Capgemini. In 2017, the figure was 189.5 thousand people. Thus, the figure for the year increased by 10.8 thousand people, or 5.7%. The total wealth of dollar millionaires in Russia in 2018 was $1.1 trillion. ... 2 2 460
10.07.19
Banks are starting to close deposits in euros. Some are even going to charge a percentage for storing EU currency, that is, investors will also have to pay extra for this service. However, clouds have been gathering over the euro for several months now. Rates are falling, and the exchange rate cannot be called profitable for investment. Life found out what was happening: why the euro fell into disgrace, what threatens savings in this currency and how they can be saved. Why do banks refuse... 4 160
10.07.19
The weakening trend of the Russian currency, observed most of last week, has not yet received a clear continuation at the beginning of this week. The dynamics of the ruble, like most currencies of developing countries, may change towards the end of the month, closer to the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The Russian ruble is still the clear leader in growth since the beginning of the year, but the bulk of the factors supporting the Russian currency have been exhausted... 847
09.07.19
The real effective exchange rate of the ruble (to the currencies of the main trading partners of the Russian Federation, taking into account inflation), according to preliminary estimates, increased by 5.8% in January-June, and by 0.1% in June, according to the materials of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in June increased by 0.7% compared to May, and by 0.1% against the euro. ... 611
09.07.19
The Bank of Russia did not seriously discuss with professional market participants restrictions on opening foreign currency deposits for ordinary Russians, Forbes writes, citing sources. The reason for such news was a joke at a meeting of the Central Bank with representatives of self-regulatory organizations of the financial market. According to the publication's interlocutor, during this meeting one of the market participants voiced concerns that market regulation could reach the point of being banned by the regulator... 757
09.07.19
The US Federal Reserve will begin a policy of sharply weakening the dollar, Saxo Bank is confident. Thanks to this, the rest of the world will “feel better,” analysts emphasize. Why the White House doesn’t need a strong dollar and what tools the Fed has to adjust the exchange rate. 800
08.07.19
The ruble remains under pressure from dividend payments, the situation in Iran, and the reduced likelihood of an aggressive easing of the Fed's policy. 2 1 790
08.07.19
At the end of last week, the ruble exchange rate showed mostly neutral dynamics, floating around 63.5 per dollar. But closer to Friday evening, after the release of unexpectedly strong data on the US labor market, the Russian currency began to weaken. As a result, trading ended at 63.8 rubles per dollar. According to Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier, further risk appetites will cool down, pressure on the currencies of developing countries and risky... 989
05.07.19
Roman Blinov, head of the analytical department of the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 085
04.07.19
The strengthening of the ruble, which has since added 8.5% to the dollar and 9.5% to the euro, is short-lived, and in the second half of the year the Russian currency will begin to fall in price, predicts Alfa Bank’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis. The dollar exchange rate, which fell below 63 rubles in June for the first time since August last year, will rise to 67 by winter, the bank believes. The ruble was supported by “a decrease in concerns about new sanctions and an increase in appetite for... 3 704
04.07.19
Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 898
03.07.19
Narek Avakyan, head of the investment department of BCS Broker, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 732
03.07.19
The total amount of funds allocated by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation for the purchase of foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule will amount to 231 billion rubles from July 5 to August 6. The daily volume of currency purchases in the coming period will amount to 10 billion rubles, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement. In the period from June 7 to July 4, the volume of funds amounted to 310.3 billion rubles (daily – 16.3 billion rubles). The expected volume of additional oil and gas revenues from the federal budget... 701
02.07.19
The ruble will come under pressure in the second half of the year against the backdrop of an increase in external debt payments, rising imports and a general decrease in risk appetite on world markets, according to the majority of experts surveyed by the Prime agency. According to their estimates, the dollar and euro exchange rates against this background will add several rubles each. Risks for the ruble The main risks for the ruble in the second half of the year are the traditional increase in payments in the fourth quarter... 1 346
02.07.19
After the conclusion of a trade truce between the United States and China, their trade relations are unlikely to demonstrate any positive breakthroughs in the near future. The main set of risks for the global economy will remain in full and will probably have only a diplomatic “camouflage”, says Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier. However, market sentiment over the coming month is likely to... 1 714
01.07.19
The Russian currency has experienced a period of prosperity over the past six months: it has strengthened due to new investors. But this month could change everything significantly. Experts believe that the tests, which are being prepared in July, can seriously change the situation with the ruble. At the auction of the Ministry of Finance, a profitability of 18.4 billion rubles out of the planned 20 billion was discussed. According to Roman Makarov, CEO of IFC Seimer, “this means that investors are experiencing... 3 666
28.06.19
Russia and China have taken the first step towards de-dollarization. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Chairman of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang signed an agreement refusing to make payments in dollars. All mutual payments will be made in rubles and yuan. After the agreement is signed, payments previously written in dollars will also switch to payments in rubles and yuan, Izvestia writes, citing deputy head of the department Sergei Storchak. Make payments... 1 1 494
27.06.19
1 2 644
26.06.19
The Russian currency on Tuesday again finished trading near 63 rubles per dollar against the backdrop of the weakening of the “American” due to soft signals from the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) and the past peak of the tax period. The weakening dollar will naturally continue to support the ruble, but the potential for strengthening of the Russian currency in the second half of the year looks limited, says Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier. Firstly, in... 3 986
26.06.19
Last year, the Russian Federation became the first in the world to sell reserves in American monetary units. 1 275
25.06.19
Last week, at stock exchange trading, the Russian ruble continued to strengthen against the dollar and the European currency, closing at 63 and 71.61, respectively. The main support for the Russian currency exchange rate was provided by capital inflows, as well as high demand for OFZs. An additional driver of growth was the rise in prices for “black gold”, in particular, after hints of a possible expansion of easing measures immediately from a number of the world’s largest central banks,... 1 425
25.06.19
The net demand of Russians for cash foreign currency changed slightly in April of this year compared to March, while the net demand for dollars decreased and for euros increased. This is evidenced by the data published by the Central Bank of the “Review of the main indicators characterizing the state of the domestic market for cash foreign currency in April 2019.” The total demand of the population for cash foreign currency (the amount purchased in... 762
25.06.19
Having announced the successful de-dollarization of the Russian banking system in March, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it seems, celebrated its victory early. Although, according to the regulator’s statistics, banks’ dollar assets have decreased by almost a quarter since 2014 and by January were at a 10-year low ($302.6 billion), in fact, Russian credit organizations simply transferred some of the currency off their balance sheets to foreign jurisdictions. Raiffeisenbank analysts came to this conclusion... 1 188
25.06.19
Natalya Milchakova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Deputy Head of the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 261
24.06.19
The Russian currency ended the previous week at levels not seen since 2018 - around 63 rubles per US dollar. 4 106
24.06.19
Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 313
21.06.19
Reports of possible sanctions on Russia's national debt shook the calm of the Russian currency and led to a decline in the stock market. The ruble, which has shown phenomenal strength this year and practically does not react to oil prices, fell in value to the dollar by 80 kopecks in literally 10 minutes. However, after another 10 minutes, most of the losses were won back. However, the movement was so powerful and fast that it is premature to draw conclusions... 3 071
21.06.19
Citi advises selling the dollar after the Fed softens its position and predicts further growth in the currencies of developing countries, including the ruble. Asia: Bank experts recommend buying Asian currencies and, in particular, selling the dollar against the Korean won. In addition, Citi experts remain long the yuan against the dollar. Latin America: The Brazilian real seems to be the main favorite here. The Chilean peso also looks promising, however... 1 936
20.06.19
The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) did not change the base rate, but actually convinced the market that it would be reduced in the next few months. This situation should restore interest in risky assets, including the Russian currency. The Federal Reserve cautiously, but still signaled to the markets that it is ready to lower rates in the coming months if economic forecasts worsen and inflation expectations decline, the chief... 3 198
19.06.19
Georgy Vashchenko, head of the department of trading operations on the Russian stock market at IC Freedom Finance, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 600
18.06.19
For the first time in 11 years, banks' foreign currency assets no longer covered their foreign currency liabilities. Is this “gap” dangerous for foreign currency depositors and how will banks pay clients if the ruble falls? Since January, bank assets (loans, investments in securities, accounts in other banks, etc.) in foreign currency have ceased to fully cover foreign currency liabilities (deposits, loans raised on the interbank market and from the Central Bank, etc.). I noticed this... 1 960
18.06.19
US President Donald Trump on his Twitter accused the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, of manipulating the euro exchange rate. “Mario Draghi just announced the possibility of additional stimulus, which immediately sent the euro down against the dollar and made it unfairly easier for them to compete with the US,” he wrote. According to the president, such a policy has been acceptable to “China and other countries” for years. Earlier, Draghi said that the ECB could... 890
18.06.19
According to the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, “the dollar is gradually becoming toxic.” 758
18.06.19
The interests of investors in the global market are currently on the side of the US dollar, which is strengthening against a basket of major currencies. Trade wars have given rise to a tendency for the US currency to rise, which may in the future threaten the well-being of the ruble. Despite periodic rollbacks, a very clear trend has formed: the US dollar has added more than 10 percent over the past year to major world currencies, although it remained under... 1 035
17.06.19
Petr Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade Group, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 651
17.06.19
Deposit rates in US currency are still higher than in euros. 1 009
14.06.19
The dollar's position weakened in 2018, the ECB said: its share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to its lowest level since 1999. Russia is one of the leaders in abandoning the American currency. 888
13.06.19
Rates on deposits in dollars and euros will continue to decline, and offers of deposits in “exotic” currencies will become less and less. Against this background, the Central Bank’s desire to reduce the foreign exchange component in the balance sheets of Russian banks may receive positive reinforcement, according to experts interviewed by RG. Ruble deposits still remain attractive, despite the decrease in profitability (based on the results of the third ten days of May, the average maximum rate of the top 10... 946
13.06.19
One of the risks for the Russian economy, which World Bank experts spoke about in their latest report, is capable of raising the dollar exchange rate above 90 rubles, predicts Katya Frenkel, head of the analytical department of the FinIst company. Especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, she analyzed these risks, assessed their likelihood and how they would affect the ruble exchange rate. 2 344

13.06.19
The ruble exchange rate managed to strengthen against the dollar and euro the day before, following the general trend in emerging markets. Its dynamics in the near future and for about the next two months will generally depend on investor interest in risky assets. The strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro on Tuesday, along with the exchange rates of developing countries, was also due to the fact that the Chinese authorities lowered the reference exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, note... 533
11.06.19
Vladimir Rozhankovsky, LIFA, expert at the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 512
10.06.19
External factors are still putting strong pressure on the Russian currency, analysts admit. Therefore, the ruble still has potential for decline in the coming week. The main support for the ruble in the coming days will come from the beginning of the tax period, says Vladimir Pomytkin, head of strategic analysis and modeling at SMP Bank. Pressure on the Russian currency will come from trade contradictions between the United States and China and... 2 122
07.06.19
Since the beginning of the year, according to the Central Bank, it has grown by 5.4%. 858
07.06.19
The American authorities use the dollar as a tool of pressure on other countries, which undermines the balance of the financial system, said Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at SPIEF-2019. “The dollar, which became the world’s reserve currency, has today become an instrument of pressure from the issuing country on the rest of the world. This, in my opinion, is a big mistake by the American financial authorities; they themselves are undermining the advantages created during Bretton Woods... 1 165
07.06.19
According to Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, the forecast for the price of Urals oil has been maintained at $63.4 per barrel. 407
07.06.19
Dmitry Alexandrov, chief strategist of UNIVER Capital, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 1 732
05.06.19
In June, the Ministry of Finance will slightly increase the total volume of foreign currency purchases into reserves according to the budget rule, allocating 310.3 billion rubles for these purposes. This is stated in a message on the department's website. Operations for the purchase of foreign currency will be carried out on the open market from June 7 to July 4. The daily volume of acquisitions will amount to 16.3 billion rubles (in May the figure was 16.7 billion rubles). Also to the specified daily purchase volume, as... 941
05.06.19
Andrey Perekalsky, leading analyst at FinIst, specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 3 792
05.06.19
The summer of 2019 promises a “swing” for the Russian foreign exchange market, which will first experience a significant influx of currency, and then an equally sharp outflow. Between May and August, the largest Russian companies will have to pay dividends worth about 2 trillion rubles. The bulk – about $20 billion – will come from commodity exporters. They will finance about 70% of this amount through foreign currency sales, Sberbank analysts predict... 2 495
04.06.19
After yesterday's rally, the Russian market is correcting from its highs against an unstable external background and sluggish oil price dynamics. 827
04.06.19
We compile and publish a monthly consolidated forecast table that provides a gauge of market sentiment and represents the "hospital average." 2 200
04.06.19
The mood on global markets is clearly not in favor of the Russian currency. Investors' appetite for risky assets is also discouraged by the lack of light in the trade war between the US and China. If the wave of negativity continues, the ruble may test new lows against the dollar, analysts admit. Since May 30, oil has lost about 12 percent in price, while the ruble has fallen by less than 1 percent over the same period, analysts point out... 1 2 360

It is profitable to buy American currency for vacations and savings

The US dollar fell to record lows in three years against six major world currencies. Against the backdrop of the collapse of the dollar, the euro almost reached its maximum value over the same period. However, as it turned out, even the US authorities do not expect anything good from the dollar; on the contrary, they benefit from a weak national currency. The head of the American Ministry of Finance, Steven Mnuchin, stated this at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Let us remember that recently the Russian authorities also tried to weaken the ruble, supposedly in the interests of the economy. MK asked experts what consequences such maneuvers by financial authorities in relation to national currencies lead to.

The American minister said that he is not worried about the fall of the dollar, noting that a weak currency is good for new trading opportunities. Gold prices have already responded to his statements: an ounce of this metal began to cost $1,350 - a maximum of 4 months.

As for the ruble, the dollar is worth 56.34 against it - 25 kopecks less than yesterday.

"MK" asked several questions about the future fate of the dollar and ruble to financial analysts - Deputy Director of the Analytical Department of Alpari Anna Kokoreva, analyst ALOR BROKER Kirill Yakovenko, chief analyst of TeleTrade Group Peter Pushkarev.

- What factors are bringing down the dollar and to what level can it fall?

A. Kokoreva: Today the dollar is declining due to statements by the US Treasury Secretary that a weak dollar is supporting the economy. The country's monetary authorities, despite the tightening of monetary policy, have repeatedly made it clear to speculators that the country needs a weak dollar, which determined its dynamics for a long time.

K. Yakovenko: I believe that the fall in the dollar exchange rate may end this week, as the dollar-ruble pair has approached a powerful support level: 56-57 rubles. At this level, I believe, the Ministry of Finance (for the National Welfare Fund), the Central Bank (for the gold and foreign exchange reserves), and perhaps the Treasury, which was also recently given the authority to enter the foreign exchange market, would not mind purchasing it.

- Does the fall of the dollar affect the ruble, should we expect the “wooden” one to strengthen?

A. Kokoreva: Yes, it does. If we compare the dollar/ruble and euro/ruble pairs, we will see that due to the fall of the dollar, the ruble is strengthening more actively against the American currency and much more slowly against the euro. All other things being equal, if the dollar continues to decline, the ruble will strengthen against this currency.

P. Pushkarev: The ruble has potential to grow: oil is at $70 per barrel and is not rolling back down. But even if oil gradually drops in price to $63-65 per barrel, it is worth remembering that the dollar dropped to 55 rubles 70 kopecks in 2017, when oil was only $50 or slightly higher. So, at the current level of oil prices, and with a negative attitude towards the dollar on world markets, Russia can expect a dollar at 53-55 rubles, perhaps even lower.

- Is it possible to make money from the fall of the dollar: is it worth buying currency or gold?

A. Kokoreva: It’s too late to make money from the fall of the dollar, the trend started a long time ago and you should have gotten into it at the beginning. Current levels are not very good for buying currency.

K. Yakovenko: The price of 56 rubles is attractive both for long-term investors and speculators, because it remained stable in April-May 2017, which means there is a high probability that the rate will bounce off of it now. Moreover, in a week, on December 30 and 31, the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place, at which Janet Yellen will chair for the last time, which means we can expect sharper comments on the results of the meeting and a more aggressive rate increase.

For Russian citizens, macroeconomic factors can be summarized in a simple recommendation: it is profitable to buy the dollar for savings or for vacation as long as it is below 60 rubles. Because even the Ministry of Finance in the long term expects a higher exchange rate in the next few years: in 2017–2020, the average nominal dollar exchange rate, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, will be at the level of 64.8 rubles, in the next 5 years - 71.5 rubles, in 2026–2030 - 77.1 rubles. With this forecast, and also taking into account the experience of sharp devaluations in 1998, 2008, 2014, you can use the moment to buy the dollar.

P. Pushkarev: I would not recommend buying currency in the current conditions: it will most likely cost less. Especially the dollar, since it is also declining significantly on world markets. The dollar exchange rate can jump up only if the United States nevertheless introduces sanctions against foreign purchases of Russian sovereign debt bonds, but even in this case, the dollar jump will most likely be short-term, and no more than 1.5-2 rubles. And having waited out this situation, it would be more correct to sell currencies again rather than buy.

- Analysts insisted that the ruble was about to fall, but it was still afloat. What threatens the Russian national currency?

A. Kokoreva: High oil prices and positive macro statistics support the ruble. The main risk for the ruble now is new sanctions, which may be introduced in February. Perhaps, now this is one of the most important factors that can negatively affect the domestic currency.

The Bank of Russia, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, this week began purchasing foreign currency as part of the implementation of the new budget rule. These purchases were supposed to lead to a weakening of the ruble exchange rate, which, according to representatives of the Ministry of Finance, should be 10% lower than it is currently set. However, there was no sharp fall in the ruble.

The decline occurred, but it was spotty and more likely related to the fall in oil prices below $55 per barrel against the backdrop of statistics on the oil and petroleum products market in the United States. However, by the end of the week the official rate is 59.02 rubles, the euro - 63.03 rubles.

The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, hastened to explain the situation. She once again emphasized that currency purchases within the framework of the transitional fiscal rule should not be considered as an attempt to influence the ruble exchange rate. According to the head of the Central Bank, the regulator will continue to adhere to the floating exchange rate, which is an integral part of the inflation targeting policy.

Nevertheless, experts noted, there are a number of warning signs for the ruble. Thus, on Thursday, for the second time since the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Finance failed in its attempt to borrow money on the market. During auctions of federal loan bonds this week, the department was unable to sell the entire volume of securities. As a result of two placements, the Ministry of Finance received 30 billion rubles from investors instead of the planned 40. At the same time, demand for securities turned out to be lower than supply, even despite the fact that the Ministry of Finance provided a noticeable discount, increasing the yield compared to the market by 10 basis points. This, experts believe, indicates that the circle of creditors of the Russian government is quite small, and negative expectations are high.

Currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance on the open market did not really have any impact on the dynamics of the dollar/ruble pair, and, according to Sergei Melnikov, chief analyst at GLOBAL FX, this was generally expected. The authorities initially noted that purchases would be carried out evenly, and the effect would be minimal. Due to a combination of factors, the company believes, the USDRUB pair is preparing to end the week at the same levels as it started – below the 59 ruble mark.

At the same time, the analyst states, it is still unclear what to do with the Ministry of Finance’s calculations, according to which the ruble should be devalued by 10% to 64.90 per dollar. We can absolutely say that the current situation on the foreign exchange market does not suit our authorities, and the ruble exchange rate should be reduced. The main question now is the tools that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can resort to to return our currency to more budget-friendly levels.

On the other hand, a situation may arise in which such measures may not be required. The ruble is highly dependent on oil prices, with a barrel of Brent hovering below $56 for most of the week. Positivity in the energy market looks fragile, and a downward reversal could well occur, especially amid new signs of rising production and inventories in the US. In such conditions, Sergei Melnikov expects, Brent risks falling to $53.50 or lower, and the ruble exchange rate, in response to this, by force of natural market factors, will drop to 60.50 - 61 per unit of US currency.

The start of the Ministry of Finance’s program for purchasing foreign currency did not lead to a fundamental change in the local foreign exchange market, agrees leading analyst of TeleTrade Group Alexander Egorov. The volume of announced operations for the period from February 6 to March 7 is 6.3 billion rubles per day. At the current exchange rate this is about 105-106 million dollars. With daily turnover on the Moscow Exchange ranging from $1.5 billion to $3 billion, this volume did not put any significant pressure on the Russian ruble. The possible cumulative effect of these operations in its pure form may appear within several months.

Macroeconomic parameters are helping to maintain interest in Russian assets so far. With inflation around 6% and a key rate of 10%, the yield differential is in favor of even the lowest-yielding but, accordingly, reliable instruments, such as government bonds. But at the same time, the expert believes, it is worth carefully monitoring and evaluating the results of auctions held by the Ministry of Finance for the placement of OFZs. The stability of the Russian currency in recent months against the backdrop of volatility in the oil market and dollar fluctuations in the international foreign exchange market is ensured by the implementation of the carry trade strategy, and if the sentiment of non-residents changes and reverse flows occur, the Russian currency may come under strong pressure.

So far, economic factors give reason to believe, says Alexander Egorov, that in the coming days the dollar exchange rate on the local market will remain in the range of 58.50 – 60.50. But it’s worth waiting for the initiatives of the new US President Donald Trump regarding tax reforms announced the day before. In response to comments regarding this news, the dollar exchange rate has already shown growth on the international foreign exchange market. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before Congress next week. This is also a significant event regarding the future prospects of the American currency.

If the proposed tax reforms, coupled with increased expectations of higher rates in the United States, provoke an increase in interest in the dollar, this will also be reflected in the local market. In the medium term, TeleTrade believes that the dollar against the ruble exchange rate will likely return to values above 60 rubles. The range of 60-65 rubles per dollar, according to the leaders of the government’s economic bloc, is more favorable for both the budget and the Russian economy. This is a very likely scenario by the end of the year.

The dollar exchange rate worries everyone - from stock market players to housewives. Millions of people keep their banking assets in dollars. This is the most popular reserve currency in the world, a reliable and profitable financial instrument. Like any other money, the dollar is subject to fluctuations in value.

In Russia, the value of this currency depends on both the economy and politics. Forecasting the dollar exchange rate against the ruble is a difficult, thankless task, but necessary. A competent forecast will not only protect you from losing money, but will also allow you to make money on currency fluctuations.

Denis Kuderin is with you, an expert on financial issues at HeatherBober magazine. I will tell, what will happen to the dollar in the near future, how this will affect the well-being of the population, and I will tell you about the main factors influencing the exchange rate of the American currency.

You will also learn how to independently create a competent currency forecast and protect your dollar savings. Don't switch – there will be a lot of interesting things!

1. Dollar exchange rate forecast - lottery or weighted analysis

People like to make forecasts themselves and listen to the forecasts of others - this makes the future more certain and helps prepare for it. But even the Hydrometeorological Center is constantly mistaken in its expectations - what can we expect about those who are trying to predict exchange rate, even more changeable than the weather?

And yet, currency exchange rate forecasts are needed. They should be listened to, they should be used for your own purposes, they should be studied. Each analyst has his own opinion about what will happen to the dollar, ruble and euro in 2017-18. Our task is to find the rational grain in each forecast and create an overall, as objective picture as possible.

Why should ordinary citizens follow exchange rate forecasts:

you will know in what currency to keep your savings;
you will be able to preserve your capital in the event of a fall/rise in exchange rates;
you can make money on exchange rate fluctuations;
You will have time to exchange one currency for another before the exchange value of the ruble/dollar changes.

The current relationship between the ruble/dollar pair is a reliable indicator indicating what standard of living the population expects in the near future.

Taking into account the difficult economic and political situation in Russia and in the world in 2017, we can draw a general conclusion: the near future will be a serious test for the position of the ruble and the national economy as a whole.

Current forecasts by economic and financial experts are contradictory and varied. It is difficult to bring analysts' statements to a common denominator, but let's try to do it anyway.

For example, the former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin believes that the country's economy will experience a significant decline in the near future. This is due to foreign policy events that do not imply a weakening of Western sanctions against Russia.
The purchasing power of citizens will decrease, which in turn will aggravate the economic downturn and negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.
Supports the opinion of the ex-minister and Nikolai Solabuto, director of the brokerage company Finam, stock analyst and trader. He believes that oil prices will soon fall, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the dollar against the ruble currency.
Here are the experts World Bank It is assumed that the ruble exchange rate will be stable at the end of 17 and at the beginning of 18 and will remain in the area 60-63 rubles for 1 $ . In contrast, experts from another reputable bank, Morgan & Stanley, say that a scenario is quite likely, the development of which will lead to a rate 85 rubles for 1 dollar .

Each analyst must decide for himself which analyst to believe. Moreover, any of us is able to make an independent forecast by analyzing the most significant factors for the dollar exchange rate.

We will talk about them in the next section of the article.

2. What affects the dollar exchange rate - 5 main factors

Because the money is a commodity, its value varies depending on objective circumstances. Specifically, the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble is influenced by dozens of factors, but five of them are of decisive importance.

Let's look at them in detail.

Factor 1. Behavior of the Central Bank

The main bank of Russia has effective tools to influence the exchange rate. At any moment, this financial institution is capable of strengthening the national currency or weakening it through its actions.

What actions of the Central Bank affect the exchange rate:

Currency interventions– purchase/sale of large quantities of dollars at a low or, conversely, high rate.
Additional issue of money– the bank orders to print more rubles, which automatically reduces their value.
Change in refinancing rate- the percentage at which the bank issues loans to commercial banks. This indicator affects the interest rate on loans for households and businesses. The lower the credit interest, the more stable the exchange rate in the country.
Issue of bonds– their purchase by the population also strengthens the currency.

These are just the main tools of influence - in reality there are many more. By monitoring the actions of the Central Bank, you are already, to some extent, becoming a forecaster.

Example
In September 17, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by 0.5%. For large banks, this is a chance to make money: they can borrow money from the Central Bank at a low interest rate, convert it into foreign currency and, due to the depreciation of the ruble, receive income that covers the loan taken from the Central Bank.
In turn, the Central Bank rate is influenced by the economic situation in the country, so these are interdependent indicators that are not easy to understand without expert help.
It would be naive to think that only the Central Bank has a monopoly on changes in the exchange rate. The USA also has its own main bank - it’s called Fed(Federal Reserve System). The decisions and actions of this body primarily affect the status of the dollar.
Factor 2. Export and import operations
The ratio of such operations determines state trade balance. Exports attract more dollars to Russia, and imports, on the contrary, take currency out of the country. The main export item to the Russian Federation is oil, gas and other energy resources.
The influence of the trade balance on the exchange rate is obvious: the more imports there are in a country, the weaker the national currency.

If the government buys more than it sells, the dollar strengthens. But when exporters pay taxes, foreign exchange rates are temporarily declining, and the ruble maintains its position. This is exactly what is happening at the time of writing - the ruble currency, after paying taxes to the treasury, remains stable for many months in a row.
Factor 3. Changes in oil and gold prices
There is so much oil in Russia (at least for now) that it is enough not only for the country’s internal needs, but also for export. The sale of energy resources is the main source of replenishment of the state budget. It has always been this way. Therefore, the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar directly depends on world oil prices.
That is why Ministry of Energy has every reason to say: since the price of oil will remain at the same level until the end of 17, no sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate are expected.
True, the price of oil, in turn, also depends on many factors, which are also not easy to identify and analyze.
For example, tomorrow in Nigeria they will decide to reduce oil production by 5%, and in Libya, on the contrary, to increase it by 1%. All this will to some extent affect the cost: the task of analysts is to understand exactly how and to what extent.

As for gold, its value tends to rise steadily, with the exception of relatively short periods of decline. Such fluctuations inevitably affect the exchange rate of the dollar and ruble when gold is bought/sold in large quantities.
Factor 4. Attitude of the population towards the national currency
Most of the population traditionally prefers to keep money in foreign currency. Citizens do not trust the Russian ruble. They are easy to understand - many remember the events of the recent past associated with sharp drops in the exchange rate and the transformation of ruble fortunes into nothing.
Increased demand for dollars automatically leads to a fall in the ruble exchange rate. Sometimes excitement and panic on the stock exchanges affects quotes more than objective reasons. A “panic” increase in the exchange rate, as a rule, does not last long, but efficient stock exchange players manage to earn decent money from fluctuations.
The trend in recent years is disappointing - in Russia the number of ruble bank deposits is decreasing. It is impossible to condemn citizens for distrust of their own national currency, but it will also not work to force everyone to become patriots of the ruble by banning dollar savings.

Factor 5. Unforeseen situations
Financiers call force majeure situations natural events in the domestic and foreign political arena and in nature. These include mass demonstrations, revolutions, major terrorist attacks, military actions and natural disasters.
The terrorist attack that occurred on September 11, 2001 in the United States is often cited as the most striking illustration of force majeure. Then the dollar fell sharply in price for some time in all countries of the world without exception.
Other factors influencing world currency rates are stock market speculation with the participation of the world's largest banks, events in the global economy, economic and political sanctions of some countries against others.
3. What will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 scenarios
Millions of people keep their hard-earned savings in precious greenish-tinted papers. It is not surprising that people are so interested in what will happen to the dollar in the foreseeable future.
In expert circles they are considering three approximately equally possible scenarios.
Option 1. Optimistic
According to the government, Russia is now on the path to economic recovery. The country's internal reserves, tapped thanks to the sanctions, led to the rise of the agricultural sector, awakened Russian producers from many years of hibernation, and generally played into our hands.
In addition, the price of oil will rise in the near future to 80-95 bucks per barrel (at the time of writing, it costs 57 $ ), which will further strengthen the position of the ruble. By the end of 17 or the beginning of 18, the dollar will cost 40-50 rubles. If the sanctions are also lifted, then a golden era will begin in the country.
Option 2. Realistic
No one is going to lift the sanctions in the near future. On the contrary, they may become tougher if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalates.
GDP will not rise anywhere, but will steadily decline. The price of oil is unlikely to change dramatically, except perhaps to fall slightly. The dollar will grow and reach the price of 65-70 rubles .
Option 3. Hopeless
Economic indicators will fall lower and lower, and less and less money will be attracted to domestic industries. Foreign investors will leave the Russian Federation completely, and oil prices will fall back $40 per barrel .
Forecast comparison table:
Which forecast do you choose? Common sense dictates that most often those who follow the golden mean are right. But Russia is too unpredictable a country to hope for stability and progressive economic development.
4. How to find out whether the dollar will rise or fall - 5 stages of forecasting
What to do if analysts’ plans are not clear? Or worse, do they contradict each other? There is only one thing left to do - make a forecast yourself.
I suggest universal expert instructions for making currency forecasts.
Stage 1. Analysis of forecasts
There are a lot of forecasts online, compiled by the world's largest and Russian economic analysts, traders, bank directors and other people who are worth listening to.
Analyze their statements and determine the general outline y – where will the exchange rate go in the near future?

Stage 2. Studying the course
Studying charts, tables, and using special stock exchange tools also helps predict rate fluctuations with a decent degree of probability. The main thing is to use the most detailed and objective sources possible.
Stage 3. Viewing news
Look for economic and political news not only on Russian-language sites, but also on global resources. It happens that one public statement by a world leader causes a sharp change in course in the near future.
Serious political events have an even greater impact on the value of currencies. Some of them are not talked about at all on central channels.
Stage 4. Identifying real factors
The most difficult stage of making a forecast. You need to understand which factors really influence the value of the dollar, and which ones simply create an extraneous background and prevent you from drawing objective conclusions.
I have already spoken about the main influencing factors - the actions of the Central Bank, the price of oil, the behavior of the population, the world economy.

Stage 5. Assessing the situation and making a forecast
All that remains is to give a sober assessment of the current situation, take into account all factors, eliminate unnecessary things and give an objective forecast.
What you will do with this forecast is the second question. Some earn decent money from analyzing the foreign exchange market. Others, expecting the dollar to rise, begin to buy imported goods before they rise in price again.
5. How not to lose money due to fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate - 3 important tips
Few people make money from exchange rate fluctuations, but thousands lose money.
A few simple but useful tips will help you save your finances.
Tip 1. Listen to the opinions of famous experts
Some experts are more “expert” than others. Their forecasts are more reasonable and come true more often. If you have the time, check out past analyst forecasts and see if they came true in hindsight. Select several experts with the highest efficiency and follow their blogs, statements and forecasts.
Tip 2. Follow the news and keep statistics
I have already mentioned this - internal and external political and economic events, as well as their interpretation by the media and the population, directly affect the dollar exchange rate. Stay informed, follow the news.
The best way to protect your savings from loss is to put them to work. Money should not lie as a dead weight: it should make other money. If your capital constantly increases, exchange rate fluctuations will not be so terrible.
Either invest in real estate or gold. A roof over your head and precious metals are enduring values that people will always need. Gold even tends to rise in price when the economic situation in the country worsens.
And another expert forecast - this time in video format:

6. Conclusion
What will happen to the dollar in the near future? I’m afraid that even a Nobel laureate in economics cannot give a definite answer to this question with 100% probability. Experts can only predict the most likely vectors for the development of the situation, and we will have to make decisions on our own.
Question for readers
What is happening to the ruble now and what will happen to it next - expert opinion + forecast of the value of the national currency